卡尔•伊坎重金押注股市崩盘

上个月，这位亿万富翁投资者在美国全国广播公司财经频道（CNBC）的节目中表示，除非联邦政府加大投入刺激经济，否则美国股市的“最终审判之日”即将来临。在最近提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件中，Icahn Enterprises证明了这位投资者绝不只是胡吹大气。该公司现在的净空头头寸已经达到了149%。

这意味着伊坎的空头头寸价值——或者说他的基金通过借贷而不是购买获得的金融资产——达到了多头头寸价值的149%。伊坎希望通过这些资产的贬值来挣钱，届时，他就能以比借贷时更低的价格购入这些公司的股票，从而赚取其中的差价。

伊坎在今年4月表示，因为低利率的缘故，股价被人为地推高了，但是基本的经济要素无法让股票维持在这样的价格上。在5月5日的收益电话会议上，Icahn Enterprises的首席执行官基斯•科扎强调了这种观点。他说：“比起股市上涨20%，我们认为股市下跌20%的可能性大得多。”

财经博客Zero Hedge把Icahn Enterprises的投资组合与公认最看跌的对冲基金Horseman Global进行了对比，从而更直观地体现了这次伊坎空头头寸的规模。Horseman Global通过做空已经实现了连续四年的盈利，他们的净空头头寸只有98%，远低于伊坎的149%。

到目前为止，伊坎的赌注还没有收到回报，2016年的前三个月，Icahn Enterprises的投资基金亏损了12.8%。不过这位著名的投资人正在押下重注，他会在未来证明自己是对的。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

Last month, the billionaire investor took to CNBC’s airwaves to argue that “a day of reckoning” was coming for American stock markets unless the federal government stimulates the economy with more spending. In a recent filing with the SEC, Icahn Enterprises IEP -2.83% showed that the investor isn’t fooling around, announcing that it had a net short position of 149%.

That means that the value of Icahn’ s short positions—or financial assets that his funds have borrowed rather than bought—is worth 149% more than the value of his long positions. Icahn hopes to make money on these assets declining in value, at which point he would cash out by buying shares in companies at a cheaper price than what he borrowed them for, pocketing the difference in price.

In April, Icahn argued that stock prices have been pushed artificially high by low interest rates, but that economic fundamentals could not support those prices. During an earnings call on May 5th, Icahn Enterprises CEO Keith Cozza underscored these views. “We’re much more concerned about the market going down 20% than we are it going up 20%,” he said.

To put this short position in context, finance blog Zero Hedge compared Icahn Enterprises’ portfolio to what it had considered to be the most bearish hedge fund, Horseman Global, which has profitably run a short book for four years. Horseman’s net short position is just 98%, far less than Icahn’s 149%.

So far, Icahn’s bets haven’t paid off, with Icahn Enterprises investment funds losing 12.8% in the first three months of 2016, but the famed investor is betting big that he will be proved right in the long run.