2017年哪国股市强？机构看好的不是美国

随着2016年步入尾声，对于新一年的市场预测纷纷浮出水面。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）关于投资的最新报告对某个国家的股票十分看好——而美国则会为此蒙受损失。

这家投资银行的跨资产战略部门的分析师在周日的一份报告中写道：“日本会成为我们的顶级市场。”据彭博社报道，日本市场将在2017年拥有“吸引人的长期估值”和“一些周期性的优势”，预计盈利也会出现正增长。

摩根士丹利看好日本前景，部分原因在于该国出现了强于预期的经济增长，同时日元也在持续走弱。彭博社报道称，其原因在于唐纳德•特朗普赢得大选后美联储（Federal Reserve）可能上调利率，导致美元走强。据CNBC报道，报告补充称，日本公司，尤其是那些有大量收入来自海外的公司，盈利将会因此出现激增。

不过新一年对日本的看好，将会带来美国的损失。因为摩根士丹利推荐卖掉美国的股票，减少在新兴市场以及美国的投资。

摩根士丹利的首席跨资产分析师安德鲁•希兹在接受彭博社采访时表示“明年很可能会看到由日本和欧洲来引领全球业绩复苏”，因为特朗普政府任何可能的企业税率调整和政府支出“在2018年以前都不太能产生足够的影响”。

路透社报道称，尽管不被看好，但日本经济在今年7月至9月同比增长了2.2%。这是日本连续第三个季度出现经济增长，其他银行的分析师也纷纷看好日本市场在新年的盈利前景

CNBC报道指出，与此同时，摩根大通嘉诚（JPMorgan Cazenove）在周一发布的文件表示，日本企业的盈利情况会因为日元走弱而获益。该银行称，科技和能源领域将因为货币的疲软大发横财，而公共事业和医疗保健领域则会因此亏损。 （财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

As the end of 2016 is finally nigh, market predictions for the new year begin to roll in. The latest report from Morgan Stanley on where best to invest in 2017 is bullish on equities in one particular country — at the expense of the U.S.

“Japan becomes our top market,” analysts from the investment bank’s cross-assets strategy unit wrote in a report Sunday. According to Bloomberg, the report suggests that the Japanese market in 2017 would come “with attractive long-run valuations” and “some cyclical strength” as well as prospects for positive earnings growth.

The bank’s positive outlook for Japan comes in part from the country’s stronger-than-expected economic growth and the continued weakening of the Japanese yen. Bloomberg reports that this is as a result the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, following the perception of an increased likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike after the election of Donald Trump. The report added that earnings of Japanese companies — particularly those with significant overseas income — would be boosted as a result, according to CNBC.

The optimism for Japan in the new year comes at the expense of the U.S., though, as Morgan Stanley changed tack to recommend selling American equities and reducing exposure to emerging markets alongside the U.S.

Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset analyst, told Bloomberg that “next year is likely to see Japan and Europe lead the global earnings recovery,” as any potential corporate tax changes and government spending under a Trump administration are “unlikely to come through meaningfully until 2018.”

Japan’s economy grew year-on-year by 2.2% between July and September, according to Reuters, despite expectations otherwise. Following its third straight quarter of economic growth, analysts from other banks are also harboring their hopes on Japan for a profitable new year.

Meanwhile, a note from JPMorgan Cazenove, published Monday, suggested that Japanese corporate earnings would benefit from a weakening yen, reports CNBC. According to CNBC, the bank said that tech and energy would be among the sectors reaping the most windfall from the weak currency, while utilities and healthcare would lose out.