5个迹象表明，苹果股票明年会大涨！

苹果公司在2016年经历了一些坎坷，它的股票虽然总体上涨了9%，但还是略微跑输大盘。不过明年苹果的股票有可能再次大涨——至少花旗集团的分析师吉姆·苏瓦是这样认为的，而且他还在本周二的一份报告中给出了苹果股票值得入手的五个理由。

包括苏瓦在内的很多分析人士都指出，苹果股票当下的第一个有利变量，就是iPhone手机将在明年迎来大改，据传下一代iPhone的外观将彻底重新设计，并将加入一些极为实用的新功能，比如效果更好的OLED显示屏和无线充电等配置至少将出现在部分机型上。预计下一财年（从2017年10月起算），iPhone手机的销量将比今年提高7%左右。

接下来是特朗普当选带来的红利。虽然还没正式扶正，但特朗普已经公开表示，上台后要对美国企业及其海外收入进行减税。据苏瓦计算，如果企业税能从当前的35%下调到15%的水平，那么苹果的每股收益或将提高6%左右。

苹果公司的国内未征税海外收入的规模也是冠绝全球的，截止至9月底，该公司约有2160亿美元的收入从未被美国政府征税。特朗普提议将这部分收入的税率由现行规定的35%下调至10%，这样一来，CEO蒂姆·库克和苹果公司就有了更多的资金进行股票回购，以及进一步提高每股收益。

苏瓦在报告中写道：“在我们的研究范围内，我们认为苹果将成为特朗普税改的显著受益方。不管特朗普是对海外收入给予税收优惠，还是降低企业税，苹果在可能进行的税制改革中都将处于非常有利的位置。”

第三个利好迹象是它的服务业务，即从iTunes的音乐下载、音乐订阅到iCloud存储空间在内的各种服务。这些服务已经成为苹果公司营收增长最快的业务之一，近一年来的增幅达到22%。库克也在几次季度收益会议上对其服务业务的增长做了浓墨重彩的宣传。

第四，苹果仍然有一些市场尚未开发，而它们很有可能成为苹果的下一个赚钱机器。比如蒂姆·库克最近就指出，大中企业客户以及印度庞大的智能手机消费市场都是有待开发的商机。

最后，苏瓦指出，从苹果的市场统计数据来看，苹果的市值与同类公司相比仍然处于被低估的状态。

不过，虽然包括苏瓦在内的许多分析师都认为，苹果的“大改周期”将强力推高其股市表现，不过从过去一年多的情况来看，苹果也面临着一些复杂的不利因素。

首先，虽然苹果一直努力试图进入印度市场，但它的努力从很大程度上说是失败的。另外，苹果的服务业务虽然增长迅猛，但公司的营收入仍主要来自硬件销售，服务业务的增长幅度仍不足以让投资者动心。而且从各种指标来看，苹果的股票交易弱于其他股票的现象已经有几年了，这也是作为全球市值第一的上市公司所必须承受的“痛苦”之一。

尽管苏瓦给出了以上五大理由，然而一提起今日的苹果，大家能想起来的还是那家卖iPhone手机的公司。因此要想让股价再次大涨，苹果可能还得想办法再度推高iPhone的销量才行。 （财富中文网）

作者：Aaron Pressman

译者：朴成奎

Apple had some stumbles in 2016 and though its stock price has gained 9%, the overall market has done slightly better. But next year could be significant for investors, at least according to Citigroup analyst Jim Suva, who offered five reasons to bet on Apple shares in a report on Tuesday.

The first variable that Suva—among many others—points to is the 2017 iPhone overhaul, which is already rumored to include a full exterior redesign and some genuinely useful new features, like better OLED screens and wireless charging—at least on some models. Apple should sell 7% more ipHones in its next fiscal year, which starts at the beginning of October 2017.

Next comes the Trump bump, as the President-elect has been talking about lowering taxes on corporations overall and on cash U.S. companies have stashed overseas. Cutting the corporate rate to 15% from the current 35% level could boost Apple’s earnings per share (EPS) by 6%, Suva calculates.

Apple is also the king of so-called un-repatriated funds, with $216 billion that have never been taxed by the U.S. government as of the end of September. Trump has talked about imposing a 10% tax on such funds, down from the current 35% rate, which could give CEO Tim Cook and company a lot more money to buy back stock and further bump up earnings per share.

“Across our coverage universe, we see Apple as a significant beneficiary of Trump tax reforms,” Suva writes. “Apple is very well positioned to benefit from potential tax reform of either or both a repatriation tax holiday and or a lower corporate tax rate.”

The third possible boost for Apple’s share price could come from its services businesses, everything from iTunes song downloads and Apple music subscription to iCloud storage space. The services line is one of the fastest growing revenue streams at Apple, up 22% over the past year, and it has gotten more than a bit of hype from Cook on quarterly earnings calls.

Then there are the untapped markets, always seemingly just over the horizon to becoming big money makers. Lately, Cook has focused on large corporate, enterprise customers as well as the massive consumer smartphone market in India as potentially under-exploited opportunities.

Finally, Suva notes that Apple’s market stats look undervalued compared to other, similar companies.

Still, aside from the iPhone “super cycle” that Suva and other analysts are predicting, some drivers have been in the mix for the past year or more.

Apple AAPL 1.67% has been trying and largely failing to break into the India market. Apple has been growing its service business sharply, but the revenue still flows from sales of hardware, a fact which seems to have investors less than thrilled. And Apple has traded at a discount to other stocks by various measures for some years now, one of the penalties of being the most highly valued public company in the world.

Despite Suva’s five reasons, Apple still looks mostly like the iPhone company it has been for years. And to get the stock price booming again, it will probably take another boom in iPhone sales.