美联储加息后《财富》5点预测：从错误中洞察未来
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这次加息又是一个经济史上最公开的秘密。 像一年前一样，美联储在周三将基准短期利率提升了25个基点。据彭博社报道，在消息公布前几天，交易人员就把加息概率定在了100%。 在金融危机期间，美联储将基准信贷利率一路调低到零，此后，它有过两次加息，这是第二次。 一年前，珍妮特·耶伦领导下的美联储实行了9年来的第一次加息，《财富》杂志对于之后的股市、信贷市场和全球整体形势的动向做了一些预测，结果不怎么样。 所以在解读加息之前，我们先得辩解一下：预测不灵不能全怪我们，甚至主要不是我们的错。一年前，大多数经济学家认为，2015年12月美联储首次加息，之后就会一发不可收拾。这个观点是有历史先例的支持的。历史上，美联储经常在一次调息之后连续出手，并且间隔时间都很短。然而，它直到昨天才第二次加息，且今年就这一次。所以，信贷市场和股票市场的走势跟我们的预期不一致。 虽然预测错误，但是对一年前的事情做个回顾，也许能帮助我们预测对2017年甚至以后的情况。过去的一年可以很好地告诉我们，未来12个月将发生什么。美联储官员昨天表示，明年可能加息三次。 但期货市场仍然认为明年只有两次加息，下次要等到6月。而《财富》仍然认为，加息的节奏会更快一点。我们百分之百地肯定！ 下面，我们先对一年前的预测做个回顾，然后谨慎地预测一下明年的情况： |
It was, once again, one of the worst kept secrets in economic history. Just like it did a year ago, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday sent its key short-term interest rate up by a quarter of a percentage point. In the days before the announcement, traders had put the odds of a rate hike at 100%, according to Bloomberg data on futures markets. It was only the second time the Fed has increased rates since the U.S. central bank dropped its key lending level all the way down to zero during the financial crisis. A year ago, Fortune made some predictions about how the stock market, the lending market, and the world in general would change following that year’s hike, Janet Yellen & Co.’s first interest rate increase in nine years. (We also took a just-for-fun look at all the ways the world had changed since the last time rates were increased. Flip phone, anyone?)How did we do on last year’s predictions? Not great. Before the explanation, an excuse: It wasn’t entirely our fault, or even mostly our fault, that our projections didn’t pan out. A year ago, most economists thought the Fed’s December 2015 increase would be the first of many in a row. And there was good historical precedent for that. The Fed in the past has tended to follow one interest rate move with a number in relatively quick succession. Instead, it was one and done, until today. As a result, lending markets and the stock market didn’t react like we expected them to. Despite our errors, looking back at what happened a year ago may be able to tell us what to expect for 2017 and beyond. And this time, the past year might actually be a good predictor of what may happen in the next 12 months. On Wednesday, the Fed board members indicated that interest rates were likely to rise three times next year. But most people think the Fed will go slower than that. Futures markets are still pointing to just two rate increases next year, with the next hike not coming until June. Once, again, we think interest rates will go up faster than that. We’re 100% sure of it. Here’s a look back at our predictions from a year ago, and some slightly more cautious predictions for next year: |
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利率 大多数经济学家认为，短期利率到2016年底会达到1.2%，但我们曾说，利率不会只涨这么点，最高可达2.6%。理由是：利率上行时，投资者一贯估计它的涨幅和涨速。这次显然是我们不对。美联储周三将基准短期信贷利率提升到0.50%-0.75%区间，比我们预期的数字低了两个百分点。 美联储官员说，在2017年底之前，还会有三次加息，利率至少达到1.2%。我们上面说过，市场对此持怀疑态度。但是，如果历史还能说明点问题，明年的利率其实应该更高一些。而且，特朗普政府计划通过减税和增加基建支出来刺激经济增长，这也应该推动利率上行。不过，这里可要警告你：我们以前预测错过。 股票 《财富》杂志去年以为，加息的速度将快于预期，因此预测股票市场在2016年差得一塌糊涂。实际上并非如此。我们的根据是高盛公司的一份研究报告，里面预计，在美联储加息后的第一年，大盘最多跌10%，可实际上过去一年不但没跌，反而有所上涨，当然大部分涨幅是在特朗普当选总统之后发生的。标普500指数今年涨了将近11%。 去哪里投资合适？我们说过，最好押宝科技股。这个判断非常正确。科技精选行业基金（SPDR），一个跟随科技股走势的交易所交易基金，在2016年涨幅超过14%。 不太正确的，是我们看多银行股。很多市场战略师都认为银行股将受益于加息，因为更好的利率将提高借贷的利润。我们没有接受这一看法。历史上，银行股经常在利息上涨时跑输大盘，我们认为，历史会重演。事实是，银行股今年上涨了22%。当然，大部分涨幅也是在特朗普当选后出现的，市场认为，新总统会减少管制。一年前，几乎有人看到这点。 至于2017年，加息还会对市场产生影响。股票在美联储宣布加息决定后下挫，道琼斯工业平均指数周三跌了119点。但好消息是，特朗普承诺采取的一些措施有可能推动经济增长，更可能提高通胀和消费者支出。这些趋势对股票构成利好，尤其是零售商的股票。 |
While most economists thought short-term interest rates would end 2016 at 1.2%, we said rates would go much higher than that, perhaps as high as 2.6%. Our reasoning: When rates do rise, investors have historically underestimated has far and how fast they will go up. Not this time apparently. On Wednesday, the Fed raised its key short-term lending rate to a range of 0.50%-to-0.75%, or about two percentage points below where we said it would be. The Fed members also predicted they would raise interest rates three more times to at least 1.25% by the end of 2017. Yes, markets are skeptical of that, as we mentioned above. Still, if history is any guide this time, rates will be even higher than that by this time next year. What’s more, Trump’s plans to stimulate economic growth with tax cuts and infrastructure spending should boost interest rates as well. But you’ve been warned: We’ve been wrong before. Stocks Since we thought interest rates would rise faster than expected, Fortune‘s prediction was that 2016 would be a pretty miserable year for stocks. It wasn’t. We cited aGoldman Sachs report that predicted stocks could fall as much as 10% in the first year after the Fed’s increase. They didn’t. Instead, the stock market in general has been up in the past year, though much of the rally has come since Donald Trump was elected. The S&P 500 is up nearly 11% this year. Where to invest? We said the best bet was technology stocks. And that was a good call. The Technology Select Sector SPDR, an exchange trade fund that tracks technology stocks is up just over 14% in 2016. Less good was our call on bank stocks. A lot of market strategists were pointing to bank stocks as the sector that would benefit the most from interest rate increases, since higher interest rates would boost lending profits. We didn’t buy it. Historically, bank stocks tended to underperform when rates rise and we said they would again. In fact, bank stocks have risen nearly 22% this year. Of course, once again, a lot of that has been since Trump has been elected, on the assumption that the new president will reduce regulation, something that few people saw coming a year ago. As for 2017, rising rates will again weigh on the market. Stocks fell after the Fed’s decision to raise rates,with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the day down 119 points. But the good news is that Trump has promised measures that are likely to push up growth, and even more likely to boost inflation and consumer spending. Those trends would be good for stocks, particularly those of retailers. |
债券虽然在2016年有所上涨，但近期在快速下跌。
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债券 债券价格会在利率上涨时下跌。一年前，我们认为，债券价格历经多年上行之后，在2016年的表现可能相当不理想。我们说过，长期债券价格最多可能跌10%。和前面的预测一样，这事又是没有发生。 债市在2016年的表现的确不如股市，但也说不上太差。巴克莱银行的美国综合债券指数今年上涨了将近2.2%。长期国债价格也上升了，但涨幅不如综合指数。更好的投资是长期企业债券，在2016年竟然上涨了5%。有谁想到了吗？反正不是我们。 |
Bond prices fall when interest rates rise. A year ago, we thought that after years of gains in bond prices, 2016 could be worse than usual. We said long-term bond prices could fall as much as 10%. Once again: Didn’t happen. Bonds did do worse than stocks in 2016, but it was hardly a bloodbath. Overall, the Barclay’s U.S. Aggregate bond index is up nearly 2.2% this year. Long-term Treasury bonds rose, but not as much as the aggregate index. The 10-year Treasury bond is up 0.3% in 2016. The better bet was long-term corporate bonds. They are up just over 5% in 2016. Who knew? Not us. |
美联储虽然加息，但银行蓄户几乎没有从中得到好处。
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银行账户 加息后，银行储户似乎是主要受益者。一年前，人们在争论，银行会不会给客户相应地增加利息。之前，储蓄账户、尤其是支票帐户的利息接近于甚至等于零，如果算上自助柜员机的费用，实际上是负的。我们认为，银行之间的竞争会令支票帐户的利息有所提升。 但实际情况不是这么回事。一年后，储蓄帐户的平均利息是0.11%，支票帐户基本没利息。所以说，如果本周的加息没让你的银行帐户发生变化，不要感到惊讶。 |
When interest rates rise, savers should be among the main beneficiaries. A year ago, there was a debate going on as to whether banks would pass along interest rate increases to their customers. Interest rates on savings accounts, and especially checking accounts, had been at or close to zero, or really negative when you factor in ATM fees. We argued that competition would drive up the rates you could get on checking accounts. But that didn’t really play out. A year later, the average rate on a savings account is 0.11%, and checking accounts still mostly pay nothing. So don’t be surprised if this week’s interest rate hike doesn’t really impact your bank account either. |
借贷利率没有出现大幅上涨。
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借贷 我们曾说，借款利率不会上涨太多，因为信用卡利息与美联储利率之间的利差已经很大了。按揭利率是跟长期利率挂钩的，经济好转时会上涨，美联储加息时则未必。 我们的这个预测是正确的。信用卡利率和按揭利率有所上涨，但是不多。不过，信用卡利率跟美联储利率的联系比我们预期得要大一些。有机构预计，明年信用卡借款利率将再次上涨，平将每个家庭要多支付18美元的利息。 按揭利率在这一年出现上涨，30年固定按揭的利息由一年的3.5%上涨至目前的4.1%，涨幅不算大，但这显示出住宅贷款对加息的敏感度明显比我们想像的要大。因此，我们预计，按揭利率在2017年多少也会上涨一些。 （财富中文网） 作者：Stephen Gandel 译者：天逸 |
We said borrowing rates weren’t likely to go up all that much. The spread between credit card rates and the Fed’s interest rate was already quite large. And mortgage rates were tied to long-term interest rates, which tend to rise when the economy improves, not necessarily when the Fed increases interest rates. This was one prediction we got right. Credit card and mortgage rates did go up, but not much. Credit card rates did turn out to be more tied to interest rates than expected. And NerdWallet predicts that credit card lending rates will go up again in the next year, with the average house hold paying around $18 more in interest a year. Mortgage rates have jumped to to 4.1% on a 30-year fixed mortgage from 3.5% a year ago. That’s not much, but it does show that home loans are apparently more sensitive to interest rate hikes than we and others thought. So expect more increases, even if they’re modest, in 2017. |
