2017年11只最佳分红股

股息，即上市公司从收入中拿出多少分给股东是非常重要的。过去一百年里，股市投资者回报中近一半都是股息。如果很多经济学家预测应验，未来几年股市回报将保持平缓，股息在吸引投资者方面的作用只会更大。

但现在想找慷慨分红的股票非常困难。多年跑赢大市后，愿意分红的股票估值一般也相对虚高。据戴维斯研究机构，按股息算，标普500指数中排名前25%的股票市盈率达17倍，而过去36年市场平均市盈率为12倍。而且这些公司派的股息也算不上大方：提高股息的公司越来越少，降低的倒是日渐增多。如果美联储真像预期一样加息，投资者有可能大批撤离，导致股市下行。

为了深入了解，《财富》采访了五位专门研究高股息股票的资深公募基金经理，询问他们对当前市场的看法。若要进一步了解分析的细节，请查阅《投资者指南》专刊中的专题报道。以下列出了11只股市专家认为有机会增值而且相对稳健的股票。

1．空气化工产品公司是一家工业气体公司，是美国世纪投资公司首席投资官兼股市回报基金经理菲儿·戴维森最热爱的一只股票。工业气体是准入门槛很高的行业，少数几家公司把控整个市场。空气化工产品公司最近出售了部分资产，集中精力经营高质量的核心资产，提升了资本回报率，也顺利偿还了欠债。目前公司股价有折让，主要是宏观因素导致，例如投资者担心全球经济放缓等。但戴维森认为低价是暂时的。

2．康卡斯特公司是有线电视巨头，出现在名单里有些奇怪。其股息水平一般，只有1.8%，低于标普500股票约2%的平均水平。但T. Rowe Price红利成长基金的基金经理汤姆·胡伯认为这家公司的资产负债表相当亮眼，管理层非常有头脑，而且业绩“被低估”——旗下NBC业务的盈利其实一直在增长。过去五年里康卡斯特的股息以20%的比例增加，还有进一步提升的空间。再加上股票回购和股价提升等因素，胡伯认为该股回报有望实现每年两位数增长。

3．仓储式连锁超市好市多在股息方面类似康卡斯特。过去10年中好市多的股价和收益增长并不多，仅为1.2%，但股息年均增长达24%。威灵顿基金公司的先锋股息增长基金经理唐·基尔布莱德特别热爱好市多的管理层（欲深入了解，请查阅12月15日《财富》关于好市多的报道），还有利润增长史。“提起好市多的优点，我能一直说。”

4．有限品牌公司是服装零售商，旗下拥有维多利亚的秘密、身体乳品牌Bath & Body Works等。富达全球股票投资基金经理蕾蒙娜·佩尔绍德非常欣赏该公司对用户需求的“精准”把握，而且资本回报率“远超市场平均水平”，过去五年股息率约为27%。有限品牌公司一边维持高股息率，一边股价也与市场整体水平相当。股票收益率为3.4%，2011年以来派息年增长率达25%。

5．美敦力公司是一家医疗设备制造商，总部位于爱尔兰，佩尔佩尔绍德认为这家公司有前途的原因是位于欧洲。英国公共养老金盛行，需要持续的现金流，从而催生了高回报的市场文化。美敦力的收益率为2.1%，略高于标普500指数收益率。

6．微软是科技行业当之无愧的现金牛。微软的企业服务占了收入和利润大部分，也锁定了未来大多数收入。哈特福德股票收益投资组合经理迈克尔·艾克梅尔指出，企业服务是粘性很强的一块，因为大公司不会轻易更改技术设置。微软的云服务和数据业务减缓了桌面软件业务日渐衰退的冲击。微软股价持续上扬，市盈率也增至18.3倍。市盈率增长的同时股票收益仍然可观（2.6%），股息也连续12年增加。

7．对威灵顿的基尔布赖德来说，运动装备巨头耐克是最理想的投资对象：持续产生价值，而且总是慷慨地与股东分享。耐克的利润和现金流在市场里均名列前茅，每股收益率也多年保持两位数增长。由于经营有方，耐克股票的股息也稳健提升，过去10年年均增长率为18%，用基尔布赖德的话说“是个非常惊人的数字”。（目前耐克股票收益率为1.3%。）不过目前派息率并不高，仅为22%，说明未来耐克可以轻松消化投资者增加的影响。

8．百事公司是市场上难找的分红大户，已经连续25年以上提升派息率。百事旗下主要是饮料和零食业务，现金流非常充足，过去10年里股息年均增长率为10%，目前收益率为2.9%。T. Rowe Price红利成长基金的胡伯预计百事市盈率会保持高个位数增长，未来几年股价会持续走高，随后收益率会提升。

9．斯伦贝谢是油气服务巨头，在市场上占据垄断地位，业务增长平稳，油价波动对股票有些影响。不过美国世纪投资公司的戴维森指出，斯伦贝谢在周期性衰退时低价收购了一些公司，进一步巩固了市场地位。再加上出色的财务报表，从未缩减股息——目前收益率为2.5%，而且股价极低（过去两年跌去三分之一），看起来是个捡大便宜的机会。

10．联合太平洋是美国最大的铁路运营商，所以排进了迈克尔·艾克梅尔的“最爱”名单。2015年受油价下跌等外部因素影响，联合太平洋业务量有所下滑，不过艾克梅尔认为这是个好机会。随着原油价格回升，煤炭和粮食库存下降，联合太平洋削减成本的措施收效明显，去年股价上涨了17.5%。最好的消息是，该公司在全国很多地区占据市场垄断地位，定价能力就保证了利润。目前收益率为2.3%。

11.VF公司是一系列品牌的母公司，包括乐斯菲斯，添柏岚，Leen牛仔部落等，销售额达230亿美元，因此跻身佩尔绍德的关注名单。今年以来该公司股价下跌了10%，市盈率也下降至16.4倍。现在可能是买入VF股票，享受2.9%收益率的好机会。 （财富中文网）

作者：Chris Talor

译者：Pessy

审校：夏林

Dividends, the share of their revenues that companies pay to their shareholders, are a big deal: Over the past century, they’ve accounted for roughly half of total returns earned by stock investors. And if stock returns flatten out over the next few years, as many economists anticipate, dividends will matter even more in driving growth for investors.

But these days, it’s unusually difficult to find dividend-paying stocks that look like good buys. Stock valuations in the category are lofty after years of outperforming the broader market. The forward price/earnings ratio of the top 25% of S&P 500 stocks by dividend yield is 17, vs. a 36-year average of 12, according to Ned Davis Research. And the dividends themselves can seem relatively stingy: The number of companies increasing their dividend has been shrinking, and the number of decreases is accelerating. And there’s also the danger that if interest rates rise, as is expected, investors could flee the sector and send stocks careening downward.

With those pitfalls in mind, Fortune talked with five veteran mutual fund managers who specialize in dividend stocks, getting their takes on what’s happening in the markets. For a more detailed breakdown of their analyses, see this feature in our Investor’s Guide issue. In the meantime, here are 11 stocks where the experts see opportunity and safety.

1. Air Products & Chemicals APD -0.52% , an industrial gas company, is a favorite stock of Phil Davidson, American Century’s chief investment officer and manager of its Equity Income fund. Industrial gas is a realm with a high barrier to entry; just a handful of operators control almost all the market. Recent asset sales have helped Air Products & Chemicals focus on high-quality core assets, fire up its return on capital, and pay down debt. The shares have sold off because of macro issues, like worries about a global slowdown, but Davidson views that as a transitory blip.

2. Comcast , the cable giant, may seem like an odd fit for the list. It pays a modest 1.8%, below the S&P 500 average of about 2%. But Tom Huber, the manager of the T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth Fund, praises its best-in-class balance sheet, savvy management, and “underappreciated” performance—including the improving profits of its NBC unit. Comcast has been increasing its dividend at a healthy 20% clip for the past five years and has room to bolster it further. Combine that with stock buybacks and share-price increases, and Huber foresees double-digit annual returns.

3. Costco tells a dividend story similar to Comcast’s. The big-box chain has a yield in line with its frugal prices—a bargain-basement 1.2%—but that dividend has been rising 24% a year over the past 10 years. The company’s management (for more, see our feature on Costco in the Dec. 15 issue of Fortune) and history of earnings growth earn rapturous reviews from Don Kilbride of Wellington Management, who oversees Vanguard’s Dividend Growth Fund: “I could talk forever about Costco.”

4. L Brands LB 0.29% is a clothing retailer that owns the likes of Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works. Ramona Persaud, manager of Fidelity’s Global Equity Income Fund, likes the company’s “shrewd” instincts and its knack for delivering a return on capital “far superior to the market,” an average of about 27% over the past five years. Despite that, L Brands shares trade at a valuation roughly equal to the overall market’s. The stock’s yield is 3.4%, and the payout has been growing at a 25% annual clip since 2011.

5. Medtronic MDT 0.61% , the Ireland-based medical device maker, looks promising in part because it’s European, according to Persaud. The prevalence of public pensions in the U.K., which require ongoing cash streams to service their obligations, has helped to create a market culture that values higher yields. Medtronic’s yield: 2.1%, slightly higher than the S&P 500.

6. Microsoft is one of the tech industry’s true cash machines. The company’s enterprise business, which accounts for the vast majority of its revenues and profits, has locked in gushers of ongoing revenue. Michael Reckmeyer, a portfolio manager of Hartford Equity Income, notes that that’s a sticky business—big companies don’t change their tech setups easily—and Microsoft’s cloud and database businesses are dhelping mitigate the secular decline of desktop software. To be sure, Microsoft’s price/earnings ratio has surged, to 18.3, after a nice run. But even at that level the shares offer a substantial yield (2.6%), and the dividend has been raised for 12 years running.

7. Nike is an excellent representative of the two factors Kilbride of Wellington looks for: companies that are creating value and making a habit of distributing that value to shareholders. Fat margins and plenty of free cash flow are both “top of class,” and earnings per share have been growing at a double-digit rate for years. That operating wizardry has allowed the sports-apparel Goliath to push its dividend up steadily, at 18% a year over the past decade, an “astonishingly good number,” says Kilbride. (Current yield: 1.3%.) And yet the “payout ratio” of dividends to profits remains a modest 22%, which indicates Nike can easily afford more shareholder raises in the future.

8. PepsiCo is one of the rare companies that qualify as Dividend Aristocrats, having raised their payouts for 25 straight years or more. A strong mix of beverages and snacks has meant plenty of free cash flow and 10% annual dividend bumps for the past 10 years, making for a 2.9% current yield. Huber of T. Rowe Price foresees high-single-digit earnings-per-share growth, and 15% share-price upside in the next couple of years, even before factoring in yield.

9. Schlumberger, the oil and gas services giant, has a dominant market share and stable underlying businesses, but its relationship to volatile oil prices buffets the stock quite a bit. Still, Davidson of American Century points out that Schlumberger shrewdly uses the periodic downturns to improve its competitive position, buying companies on the cheap. Combine that with a sparkling balance sheet and its history of never cutting its dividend—the yield is now 2.5%—and its beaten-down share price (down by a third over the past two years) looks like an opportunity to pick up a high-quality bargain.

10. Union Pacific UNP 0.30% , the largest railroad operator in the U.S., also makes Michael Reckmeyer’s “nice” list. When the carrier’s 2015 volumes fell because of external forces, such as collapsing oil prices, Reckmeyer saw an opportunity. Rebounding crude prices, lower coal and grain inventories, and a cost-cutting regimen have all begun working in Union Pacific’s favor since then, with the stock having risen 17.5% in the past year. Perhaps best of all: The firm essentially has a number of regional monopolies around the country, and hence the pricing power to generate some impressive margins. Its yield: 2.3%.

11. VF Corp. VFC -0.93% , the $23-billion-in-sales parent company of brands ranging from the North Face to Timberland to Lee jeans, also makes Persaud’s list. The retailer’s stock has slipped 10% so far this year, lowering its forward P/E to 16.4. Now could be a handy moment to buy VF shares and profit from their 2.9% yield.