特朗普的总统不好当，美国未来面临五大经济难题

唐纳德·特朗普赢得美国大选举世震惊，也让专家学者大跌眼镜。同样令人不解的是美股在特朗普当选后大涨。因为股市上扬意味着市场相信特朗普政府能克服经济领域很有挑战的“拦路虎”。

投资者看涨美股是因为，预计特朗普减税（企业税和个税）、增加国防和基础设施方面的政府支出（1万亿美元是很大手笔）和减少监管（“多德-弗兰克”法案早就是眼中钉）会有明显收效，带领美国进入GDP快速增长的辉煌周期，推动企业利润增长，刺激就业和强劲消费，甚至提升增速（泡沫兴起、退潮，然后重复）。

大选后金融市场一片狂欢，却没人担心特朗普计划限制移民和贸易的负面影响，遑论以下五大宏观经济的利空因素，无论谁当选总统，都要面对这些难题。

1、别傻了，这是周期性问题。

据美国非营利机构国家经济研究所（NBER）测算，本轮经济扩张始于2009年6月，时长在二战后排第四。尽管如此，经济增长周期不会因为持续时间久告终，宣告增长结束的通常是高赋税、监管不力，更经常的原因则是货币政策收紧，而货币紧缩正是“特朗普经济学”面临的第二个难关。

2、美联储尽显鹰派立场

美联储货币政策决策机构联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的会议纪要和联储官员讲话表明，一段时间以来，联储一直努力推动货币政策“正常化”。特朗普承诺的增加财政支出可能会推升通胀，美联储也就有了加息的理由。无论出于何种动机，美联储加息都将使个人消费者和企业借贷受限，进而妨碍经济增长。对投资者来说，华尔街流传甚广的“加息三次跌一回” 值得铭记。

3、国会难以发挥功能

由于共和党掌握了白宫和国会，特朗普的财政刺激政策付诸实践机会很大。而这些刺激方案会导致预算赤字。著名智库布鲁金斯学会（the Brookings Institution）和城市研究所（the Urban Institute）估算，特朗普的减税计划生效后，美国政府年度赤字一下就会增加将近8000亿美元，随着时间推移还会增加。赤字激增可能激起茶党人士和财政倾向保守的众议员反对。另外，共和党人在参议院不会获得多数席位。

4、全球贸易江河日下

特朗普践行“美国优先”政策以前，国际贸易已经在走下坡路。如果特朗普坚持在美国和墨西哥边境修“长城”，严格限制移民，重新进行贸易协议的谈判（或者撕毁协议），必然打压全球GDP增长，届时美国也无法置身事外。大选结束后不久，众议院筹款委员会（the House Ways and Means Committee）主席凯文·布拉迪表示：“要发展经济，只号召人们支持本国货还不够，要把美国制造卖到全球各地。”

5、人口问题注定无解。

美国人口正趋老龄化。美国劳工统计局（BLS）数据显示，2015年，将近15%的国人年逾65岁。全美第三大智库皮尤研究中心称，截至2050年，美国人里“预计最年老的人群增速最快”。人口老龄化会给美国的社会保险福利（Social Security）和联邦医疗保险（Medicare）施加更多压力。特朗普此前鼓吹保持政府提供的社会福利不变，如果他说到做到，美国国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office）预计，到2026年政府预算赤字将增至1.34万亿美元。假若成真，美国政府债务与GDP之比将由75%升至85%，债息与所有政府支出之比将由目前的7.5%增至13%。如此可怕的数字意味着，私人领域的投资可能被迫出逃，全球的美国国债投资者会要求更高的利息。值得一提的是，美股欢庆特朗普胜选时，美债却惨遭疯狂抛售，可能预示了后面的苦日子。（财富中文网）

作者：Aaron Task

译者：Pessy

审校：夏林

Donald Trump shocked the world and confounded the pundits by winning the presidency. And just as confounding was the way U.S. stocks surged in the aftermath—because implicit in that surge was a belief that a Trump administration could overcome some very challenging economic obstacles.

The bullish bet is that Trump’s plans to cut taxes (corporate and personal), boost spending on defense and infrastructure ($1 trillion is a lot of money), and cut regulations (so long, Dodd-Frank) will unleash a glorious cycle of faster GDP growth, leading to surging corporate profits, thus spurring hiring and more robust consumer spending and even-faster growth (lather, rinse, repeat).

Seemingly lost in the post-election euphoria was any concern about the potential negative ¬effects of Trump’s planned restrictions on immigration and trade, not to mention these five macro headwinds any incoming President would have had to grapple with.

1. It’s the Cycle, Stupid

As measured by the ¬National Bureau of Economic Research, the current economic expansion began in June 2009 and is already the fourth longest in the postwar era. That said, economic growth cycles don’t typically die of old age but are scuttled by higher taxes, unwise regulation, or—most often—tighter monetary policy, which leads us to obstacle No. 2 for ¬Trumponomics…

2. Hawks in Flight at the Fed

Minutes of meetings from the Federal Open Market Committee and speeches by Fed officials suggest that the Federal Reserve has been itching to “normalize” policy for some time now. Trump’s promises to boost fiscal spending, which tends to spur inflation, gives the Fed reason to raise rates. No matter the impetus, higher rates will lead to constraints on credit for both consumers and businesses, which will crimp growth. For investors, the old Wall Street saw “Three hikes and a stumble” is worth remembering.

3. D.C. Dysfunction

Control of both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue gives the GOP a chance to enact Trump’s fiscal stimulus policies. That said, the proposals are budget busters—according to the Tax Policy Center at the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute, Trump’s tax plan would add close to $800 billion to the annual deficit when it first takes effect, with that amount increasing over time. That will likely stir opposition from Tea Party members and fiscal conservatives in the House. Plus, Republicans won’t have a filibuster-proof Senate majority.

4. Global Retreat

Even before Trump gets a chance to enact his “America First” policies, global trade is already on the downswing. If he sticks to his promises to build a wall on the Mexican border, sharply limit immigration, and renegotiate (or abandon) trade deals, that will certainly dampen global GDP growth and hurt the U.S. as well. As Kevin Brady, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said shortly after the election, “To grow our economy, it’s just not enough to buy American. We have to sell American around the world.”

5. Demographics as Destiny

The U.S. population is aging; nearly 15% of Americans were over age 65 in 2015, according to the Census Bureau. Between now and 2050, population growth “is expected to tilt strongly to the oldest age groups,” according to the Pew Research Center. An aging population will put more pressure on Social Security and Medicare. Assuming no change in legislation—and Trump campaigned on keeping those entitlements intact—the Congressional Budget Office predicts America’s deficit will expand to $1.34 trillion by 2026. Such an increase would raise the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio from 75% to 85% and send the cost of interest on our national debt to 13% of all spending from 7.5% currently. These scary numbers could crowd out investment in the private sector and result in global investors demanding much higher interest rates on Treasuries. Notably, while the stock market rejoiced in Trump’s victory, the bond market suffered a vicious selloff that could be a harbinger of tough times ahead.