2017年的世界会是什么样？请看来自华尔街的预测

2016年发生了不少大事。这一年，英国脱欧，特朗普当选，世界经济也一路滑向下行的轨道。

考虑到各种意外因素层出不穷，华尔街对2017年的预测还能有几分准头呢？不过华尔街几大银行在仔细研究了经济数据、历史趋势和社交媒体等资料的基础上，还是对2017年给出了自己的预测。

很多银行都认为，明年特朗普将降低税收并放松监管力度。不过《财富》选取的一些华尔街知名分析师却在他们的2017年展望报告中对即将到来的一年做出了许多极为有趣的预测。

摩根士丹利：与特朗普在大选期间的承诺相反，特朗普的政策实际上将促进美国的进口增长，降低美国的出口增长。

The U.K. broke away from the European Union, Americans elected Donald Trump for president, and despite all the doom and gloom the world economy has clung on to its track.

Considering all these surprises, can Wall Street really predict what 2017 will bring? Probably not. Nonetheless, taking a hard look at economic data, historical trends, and social media(in one case), the Street's biggest banks took a stab at it anyway.

Plenty of the banks were predicting that Trump would lower taxes and reduce regulation. But Fortune has picked through Wall Street's analysts 2017 outlook reports to find the most interesting predictions for the coming, unprecedented, new year.

Morgan Stanley: Trump's policies will actually boost import growth, and lower export growth—the opposite of his campaign promises.

华尔街的许多分析师似乎都忽略了特朗普经济计划中的一个重要主张，即反自由贸易政策和驱逐移民计划。对此，华尔街的态度是：忽略了就对了。

比如，高盛在其2017年展望报告中指出，外界对特朗普的反自由贸易言论的担忧“很可能过头了”。如瑞士信贷银行指出：“我们的判断是，围绕贸易保护主义和移民政策的雄辩很快就会降低调门。”

摩根士丹利的分析师也认为，2017年，美国的贸易赤字将进一步加深，美国的出口贸易增长率将从2016年的2.6%下降至2.4%，而进口贸易增长率则会从2016年的0.5%上升至4.4%。

该分析师团队写道：“我们认为特朗普不会履行提高关税的承诺。从我们的基本面分析看，美国的消费支出和商业投资都在增速，二者都会导致进口贸易额的提高，此外到2017年年中，美元贸易加权指数有可能将上涨10%，从而会进一步抑制出口。”

野村证券：美国劳动生产率大幅提升

Many on Wall Street are largely ignoring a main tenant of Trump's economic plan: His anti-free trade policies and plans to deport immigrants. Wall Street's take: Perhaps they should be.

Goldman Sachs for example noted in its 2017 outlook that concerns over Trump's trade policy are "likely overdone." Credit Suisse said, "Our judgement is that the rhetoric on protectionism and immigration will be toned down."

Similarly, Morgan Stanley analysts predict that in 2017, the trade deficit will deepen, with exports growing slower than before, 2.4% compared to the expected 2.6% in 2016. Imports on the other hand will jump from 0.5% in 2016 to 4.4% in 2017, the bank estimates.

"We are clear in the note that we assume Trump will not deliver on his promises to raise tariffs," the team wrote. "In our baseline we have a faster pace of consumer spending and business investment, both of which result in higher imports, as well as a 10% rise in the trade-weighted dollar through mid-2017, which depresses exports."

Nomura: way too much U.S. productivity.

许多经济学家和分析师都注意到，在过去的几个季度中，美国的劳动生产率（也就是每名工人的经济产出）基本呈平稳或下滑趋势。但是到了2017年，该指标或将出现显著的意外上升。这可能会导致市场出现动荡。至少日本的野村证券认为存在这种可能。

野村证券的分析师团队写道：“我们知道，低投资是导致劳动生产率不足的一个主要因素。美国在房地产和设备领域的投资显然处在衰退的水平，但知识产权和研发领域的投资却已经接近了后危机时代的最高水平。由于这种投资是较为无形的，所以很容易被人忽略。但它也能为劳动生产率的提高打下了基础。如果这种情况真的发生了，那它对市场的影响将是十分深远的，包括证券市场走强，美联储采取更加激进的加息政策等。”

换言之，他们的观点是：人们期待以久的劳动生产率提升可能对股市产生负面影响。高通胀很可能会导致利率上涨。如果利率上涨了，那么对企业利润和股市来说总体是件坏事。它也会使债券更具有吸引力。

当然，特朗普胜选后，目前大量投资者仍然在扎堆挤向股市。

不过野村的分析师团队也指出，美国劳动生产率的这种意外猛增并非是一个大概率事件。

瑞士信贷：工资猛涨将损害GDP

虽然以瑞银为代表的一些银行认为工资水平的上涨对GDP有好处，但瑞士信贷却指出，低失业率和高工资或许是企业利润降低的信号——因此也预示着GDP增长率的降低。

瑞士信贷在其2017年展望报告中指出：“我们所担心的是，随着失业率略微下降，劳动力正在获得更高的定价权。这一点从就业成本指数的工资构成数据、平均时薪数据和亚特兰大储备银行对更换工作者的工资追踪数据中可以明显看出。一般说来，随着工资占GDP的比重上涨，利润占GDP的比重就会下滑。利润的下降一般与GDP增长率的减速是同步的（因为企业会重新考虑资本支出和用工问题），特别是在当前企业杠杆率相对较高的背景下。”

根据美国劳工统计局的数据，今年九月，美国文职雇员经季节因素调整后的薪酬成本上涨了0.6%，光是工资一项便上涨了0.5%。

据国际货币基金组织预测，2017年，美国的GDP增长率大约将在2.2%左右。

富国银行：2017年将是对冲基金和选股专家的黄金年份

Economists and analysts have noted that U.S. productivity, a measure of output per worker, has remained flat or fallen in the past few quarters—despite advances in technology. But in 2017, that measure could ramp up dramatically and unexpectedly. That would result in a shock to markets. At least that's what U.S. analysts at Japanese bank Nomura say is a possibility.

"We know that low investment has been a key contributor to poor productivity. It certainly has been true that investment in buildings and equipment is at recessionary levels. But investment in intellectual property and Research & Development is running at close to post-crisis highs. The fact that this form of investment is less tangible makes it easy to miss. It could also provide the foundation for a surge in productivity. Were this this to happen, implications for the markets would be far-reaching from stronger equity markets to a more aggressive Fed hiking path," the team wrote.

Their point: The long awaited productivity boom could be bad for stocks. Higher inflation likely would lead to interest rate increases. And when interest rates rise, that's generally bad for corporate profits and the stock market. It also makes bonds more attractive.

Of course, for now, investors have largely piled into stocks following Trump's election.

Nomura also added that such an unforeseen surge in U.S. productivity however, is unlikely.

Credit Suisse: In which wages grow so high it could cut into GDP

While banks such as UBS see rising wages as a boon to GDP growth, Credit Suisse noted that lower unemployment and higher wages could be a signal of lower corporate profits—and therefore lower GDP.

In their lists of concerns for 2017, Credit Suisse noted: "The worry we have is that labour, with the unemployment rate edging lower, is getting more pricing power. This is evident in the recent wage component of Employment Cost Index data, average hourly earnings and the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker for job switchers. Ordinarily, as the wage share of GDP rises, the profit share of GDP falls. A fall in profits normally coincides with decelerating GDP growth (as corporates reconsider capex and employment decisions), especially against the current backdrop of relatively high corporate leverage."

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, compensation costs for civilian employees, on a seasonally adjusted basis, rose 0.6% in the three months ending in September. Wages alone rose 0.5% during that period.

The International Monetary Fund has forecasted U.S. GDP at 2.2% for 2017.

Wells Fargo: 2017 Will Be a Year for the Hedge Funds and Stock Pickers

研究机构Preqin公司指出，对冲基金在2016年年初的市场动荡中遭受了一次不小的冲击，这也导致了以紧跟指数为特点的交易所交易基金等被动型投资策略受到追捧。投资者们注意到，对冲基金行业作为一个整体，其年内的表现还不如费用较低的标普500基金。这也导致了今年前九个月里，对冲基金出现了高达667亿美元的资金流失。

不过在富国银行的2017年展望中，富国银行投资机构（Wells Fargo Investment Institute）的全球另类投资总监亚当·塔巴克表示，市场波动性将成为2017年的一个主题，这也为主动投资策略创造了合适的条件。

“采取全球多样化投资策略的低净风险投资经理人能够应对较高的波动性环境，这样使得投资人可以专注于释放价值，追加对传统证券的资金配置。” 塔巴克写道：“选股仍将是一项热门业务，这就是我们为什么在股票对冲和相对价值等低净风险投资策略上表现得更具建设性的原因。

不过据对冲基金研究公司（Hedge Fund Research）统计，从第二季度开始，对冲基金的收益的确开始向好，到12月7日为止，收益为2.26%。

加拿大皇家银行：特朗普的推文左右股市

和前几任美国总统不同，“嘴炮大王”特朗普说话时从不顾忌政治正确这回事。他的推特账号是他的主要发声平台，但他现在已经成了美国的领导人，因此他在推特上的发言也就具备了影响市场的能力。本月，特朗普曾在推特上吐槽波音公司生产的“空军一号”成本濒临“失控”，并威胁要取消订单，导致波音股票上周应声下跌。一周后，特朗普又将嘴炮的目标瞄准了另一家航空和国防公司——洛克希德马丁，已经预感到洛马要倒霉的对冲基金果然借该公司的股票下跌狠赚了一笔。

加拿大皇家银行认为，就算特朗普入主了白宫，他也不会戒掉“推特治国”的爱好，市场被他的嘴炮轰得时有波动也是在所难免的事。

“这位当选总统有想到什么就说什么的习惯，不管他想说的话是否政治正确，也不符合华尔街一贯谨慎的语言风格。”在加拿大皇家银行的2017年展望中，该行指出，特朗普的一言一行可能会给市场带来更多的不确定性。“特朗普的争议言论有时可能会造成不确定性，并给市场造成慌乱。更重要的是，特朗普在贸易和移民问题上的动作有可能会造成市场波动。”（财富中文网）

作者：Lucinda Shen

译者：朴成奎

Hedge funds took a pummeling at the start of 2016 in a volatile market, giving a boost to passive investing strategies such as exchange-traded funds, which track an index. Investors noted that hedge funds as a whole have underperformed the S&P 500 funds generally come with lower fees—resulting in some $66.7 billion in hedge fund outflows in the first nine months of 2016, according to Preqin.

But in the Wells Fargo's 2017 Outlook, Wells Fargo Investment Institute's head of global alternative investments, Adam Taback, says that volatility will be a main theme in 2017. That provides the right conditions for active investing.

"Globally diversified low-net managers can navigate higher volatility. This can allow investors to focus on unlocking value and complement allocations to traditional equities," Taback wrote. "Security selection should remain favorable, which is why we are more constructive on strategies that have low net-exposure profiles such as Equity Hedge and Relative value."

Granted, hedge funds did turn positive starting in the second quarter, churning out returns of 2.26% by Dec. 7, according to Hedge Fund Research.

RBC: Markets will be at the mercy of Trump's twitter feed.

Unlike his predecessors, Trump has been less concerned with walking the straight line of political correctness. His Twitter feed has also been known to be his medium for communication, except now that he is the leader of the U.S., his tweets can shift markets. In early December, shares of Boeing took a dip last week after the president-elect tweeted that the cost of a Boeing-built Air Force One would be "out of control" and exclaimed: "Cancel order!" A a week later, hedge funds were able to profit when Lockheed's Martin's stock fell by predicting Trump's tweet slamming the aerospace and defense company.

Canadian bank RBC expects Trump's market moving tweets won't end when the president-elect enters the White House.

"[T]he president-elect has a propensity to say what’s on his mind, regardless of whether it’s politically correct or comports with the typically more cautious language of Wall Street," In RBC's 2017 outlook, the bank noted that what Trump says and does now could create more uncertainty in markets. "Controversial statements could create uncertainty and rattle the market at times. More substantively and importantly, Trump’s actions on trade or immigration could generate market swings."