道指已站稳2万点，未来会怎样？

随着道琼斯指数收在20,000点以上，针对股价是否过高的永恒争论也开始升温。尽管我们都想向沃伦·巴菲特一样，面对市场的趋势不动如山，但大部分商业领袖实际上都做不到这一点。他们需要判断何时适合回购股票，何时适合大规模或小规模奖励员工认股权，或是在快退休时调整个人投资。所以让我们直面问题：如今的股价是高还是低？最近发布的文章各执一词，《华尔街日报》的一篇文章表示股价过低了，《财富》自己的编辑肖恩·塔利则在另一篇文章中称股价太高。这里我也不卖关子，我赞同肖恩的观点，因为我一直在做估值相关的工作，它让我多年来受益匪浅。

股价太低的观点，立足于一些可靠的事实。企业的利润历经两年的跳水，开始攀升。唐纳德·特朗普出人意料地当选总统，在11月9日以后也开始对市场产生影响。这昭示着华盛顿将出台利于商业和增长的政策。更宽泛地说，经济危机让数百万投资者在股市前裹足不前。而如今，随着商业环境的回暖，许多投资者将回归股市，流入的美金总体增加，将让股价水涨船高。

根据这些可以观察到的趋势，这种论点似乎很有道理。但是肖恩对此并不赞同。相反，他详细分析了数据，目前他们并没有得到宽慰。标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）目前的市盈率为25.3，远高于历史平均值。然而，如果企业利润能出现大幅增长，这一市盈率也可能是合情合理的，而且华尔街的分析师确实有这样的预测。那么问题出在哪里呢？

问题在于，分析师往往会偏好他们的分析目标，高估了这些公司未来的利润。研究公司FactSet表示，如果整体研究他们的利润预报，你会发现预测的结果往往会高于公司的实际表现——大约7%。因此，未来利润未必就会出现巨大提高。行情看涨可能意味着特定行业今年会有更好的表现，例如油价上涨会让能源公司受益。但是油价上涨也会给其他公司带来更高的成本，挤压它们的利润。

总之，我认为肖恩的观点更具说服力。股价并不低。不过我也想起，市场即便是在不理性的情况下，也可能会向更加不理性的方向发展。艾伦·格林斯潘在1996年著名的“非理性繁荣”的演讲中表示，在股票中赔本的投资者，即便是在牛市中，也会错失80%股票上涨带来的收益。

过去的情况也告诉我，类似道琼斯指数2万点这样的里程碑没有什么意义。因为一个指数接近某个值，并不代表它会达到那个值。毕竟，1965年12月道琼斯指数达到969点时，投资者都对于它即将突破1,000点感到无比振奋。但它真正突破1,000点已经是七年以后了。 (财富中文网)

作者：Geoff Colvin

译者：严匡正

As the Dow keeps not quite hitting 20,000, the eternal debate over the market’s priciness is heating up. And while we’d all like to maintain a Warren Buffett-like serenity toward the market’s direction, most business leaders, as a practical matter, cannot. They have to decide whether it’s a good or a bad time for a company to buy back stock, to award employee stock options in large quantities or small, or to adjust their personal investments as retirement approaches. So let’s face the question: Are stocks today cheap or expensive? Articles arguing opposite sides have just been published, one in the Wall Street Journal (stocks are cheap), the other by Fortune’s own Shawn Tully (stocks are expensive). So as not to keep you in suspense, I’m going with Shawn, as I always do in matters of valuation, a policy that has served me extremely well over many years.

The stocks-are-cheap argument proceeds from a few reassuring facts. Corporate profits are rising after having plunged over the past two years. The unexpected election of Donald Trump, which hadn’t been priced into the market until November 9, heralds an era of pro-business and pro-growth policy from Washington. More broadly, the financial crisis scared millions of investors away from stocks; now, as the business environment warms up, many of them will return, and the sheer volume of dollar inflow will push prices higher.

It’s a plausible argument based on observable trends. But Shawn has never favored that type of argument. Instead, he dissects the numbers, and right now they are not comforting. The S&P 500 is trading at a PE multiple of 25.3, which is far above historical averages. That multiple could be perfectly rational, however, if profits are about to explode, and Wall Street analysts are indeed predicting a strong rise. So what’s the problem?

The problem is that analysts tend to fall in love with the companies they analyze and overestimate future profits. If you aggregate their profit forecasts for the individual companies they cover, the result is usually way above the actual performance of the companies collectively – about seven percentage points above, says the FactSet research firm. The coming profit surge is by no means certain. The bulls like to note that certain industries should do much better this year, for example as rising oil prices benefit energy firms. But rising oil prices also impose higher costs and thus lower profits on other companies.

Bottom line, I think Shawn makes the more persuasive argument. Stocks are not cheap. But I also try to remember that even when the market is irrational, it’s perfectly capable of getting more irrational. Alan Greenspan notes that an investor who bailed out of stocks when he gave his famous “irrational exuberance” speech in 1996 would have missed 80% of the bull market’s gains.

I also try to remember that market milestones like Dow 20,000 are meaningless, and just because the index gets close to a round number doesn’t mean it’s about to hit that number. After all, investors got excited about Dow 1,000 when the index hit 969 in December 1965 – but it didn’t close above 1,000 for seven more years. Dow 20,000 could happen this afternoon, or years from now.