苹果该考虑收购了，这些公司都是选项

本周二，苹果股价已经是三月份第五次刷新纪录了，这也是苹果股价今年第11次刷新纪录。现在我们应该仔细观察一下苹果下一步将做些什么。苹果一向是一个出色的颠覆者，且历来坚持“自造不外购”。然而由于苹果上周推出的新款iPad反响平平，很多人不禁质疑，苹果是否还是那个犀利的创新企业。

我之前曾经说过，苹果正在执行一种“收割战略”，以在趋平甚至下滑的市场上榨取尽可能多的利润，这也是一个非常聪明的战略。由于平板电脑市场整体不景气，iPad也无法独善其身。苹果试图在还有些赚头的情况下尽可能地收割利润。这种战略是说得过去的，市场的反应也证明了这一点——苹果股价昨天再创历史新高。

Mac、iPad和iPhone作为苹果的三大支柱产品，其销售额占苹果总收益的比重超过了85%，然而这三种产品也都面临着越来越大的压力。未来对苹果只会越来越难，而不是越来越简单。消费者已经不愿升级到实际改动并不大的所谓“新款”，三星、中兴和华为等竞争对手与苹果的差距也变得越来越小，有时甚至能以更低的价格推出更高级的功能。另外，平台之战的天平已经开始朝着Android倾斜。虽然苹果在这些产品上还有不小的“收割”空间，但苹果的长期展望却着实不容乐观。

为了保住颠覆者的位置，苹果必须由防御性战略转向进攻性战略。好在苹果的转型资本还是很雄厚的，一有优质的品牌声誉，二有忠诚的用户群，三有多达2000亿美元左右的现金可用。然而资本雄厚的厂商并非只有苹果一家，就在其他竞争对手大搞收购的同时，苹果却基本上对收购持观望态度。它迄今为止最大手笔的一次收购，就是在2014年以30亿美元收购了Beats公司。与其他很多竞争厂商相比，这样的手笔只是小巫见大巫。

苹果最近开拓新业务领域的尝试也并非很成功。首先，Apple Watch称不上是一款革命性的产品。其次，苹果的汽车战略目前似乎陷入停滞。另外，苹果音乐也仍未追上与Spotify的差距。正如新书《数字漩涡》（Digital Vortex）中所指出的那样，苹果需要更加擅于占领新的竞争领域，不管它是不是那个领域的颠覆者。

重新构建某种商品或服务是需要耗费大量时间的。苹果近来在核心产品之外的领域已经失去了发展势头，但它却握有大量的现金，而现在也到了苹果应该花钱的时候了。换句话说，苹果现在应该做的是收购，而不是自造。

那么，苹果下一次收购的目标是谁呢？首先，不管苹果收购谁，它必须要符合苹果的公司形象。它应该具有出色的设计水平和较好的创新性、简洁性、科技性，并且具有高端或奢华的口碑。这些标准就可以排除一些人们热议已久的目标了，比如迪士尼（业务太过多元化）和索尼（业务太复杂）。目前看来，苹果有可能或比较可能收购的目标有：

潘朵拉（Pandora，市值30亿美元）

苹果如果收购Spotify，或许无法通过反垄断机构的审查。因此苹果如果想在流媒体音乐领域扩大地盘，收购潘朵拉或许是个不错的选择，而且这笔交易的规模也相对较小，大约只在30亿到50亿美元之间。然而单凭这样一次收购，对苹果的整体业务其实推动不大，苹果的胃口应该还要再大些。

特斯拉（440亿美元市值）

苹果和特斯拉多年以来一直相爱相杀，一边相互贬低，一边相互挖对方的工程师。特斯拉作为一个强势的高端创新品牌，不失为苹果进入汽车业务的一个捷径。然而特斯拉也是一家规模相对较小且利润较低的公司，而且对各种震荡十分敏感。另外，说到特斯拉就不能不提它的CEO伊隆·马斯克，他与苹果CEO蒂姆·库克都是十分自负之人，说不好会碰撞出什么火花。

PayPal（520亿美元市值）

苹果的移动支付服务Apple Pay在2014年10月推出时曾被寄予厚望，但它的普及速度并没有达到很多人的预期。苹果很是吃了一番苦头才明白金融服务业的水有多深，被保护得多好，以及有多难以攻克。假若能够获得反垄断监管部门的审批，那么收购PayPal将使消费者和商家更容易接受苹果的支付服务。不过金融服务毕竟不是苹果的核心业务，甚至有可能让它从核心业务上分心。

动视暴雪（370亿美元市值）

苹果很有可能进军游戏领域，因为这个领域如今已经比电影和音乐产业加起来还要庞大。虽然动视暴雪没有自己的游戏机业务，但它在PC、网游和手游领域都十分强劲（为了进军手游界，它还收购了热门游戏《糖果粉碎传奇》的制作商）。如果苹果想要进入一个临近产业，收购动视暴雪将是一个很不错的选择。

Netflix（610亿美元市值）

苹果已经围绕视频做了很多年的文章了，但它一直没能挤进视频内容制作或传播的第一梯队。苹果通过iPod、iPhone和iPad收割了很大的价值，实现了巨大的成功，而内容制作者等业内其他各方实际上处于吃亏的地位。不过现在已有很多证据表明，目前天平正在朝远离设备制造商的一方倾斜。Netflix和亚马逊都看到了这种趋势，也都在努力占据这股潮流的最前沿。

Netflix在这方面已经取得了巨大的成功——首先是在传播上，其次是在内容制作上。相比之下，苹果在这一领域的反应则很慢，它需要付出大量努力才能弥补这一差距。尤其是现在各大传统内容制作商纷纷认识到了他们所创作的内容的价值，而亚马逊等新进者也发出了不少自己的声音。Netflix虽然是个很贵的收购目标，但它能给苹果带来巨大的平台价值。

由于苹果的口碑已陷入岌岌可危的境地，苹果必须扩展自己的当前战略，开辟新的市场。从当前的硬件市场上收割尽可能多的利润当然是无可厚非的，但苹果也需要在游戏、内容制作与传播等领域上创造价值。苹果历来喜欢用自己构建的产品打入新市场，然而它最近几次的类似尝试都以失败而告终，时间也不再站在它这一边了。因此，苹果应该利用它的巨额资本进行战略采购，并占领邻近市场。而收购动视暴雪或者Netflix都是非常有吸引力的选项。（财富中文网）

作者：Michael Wade

译者：朴成奎

本文作者Michael Wade是全球数字业务转型中心（Global Center for Digital Business Transformation）主任、瑞士国际管理发展学院（IMD）创新与战略学教授，也是《数字漩涡：当今的市场领袖如何打败颠覆性的竞争对手》一书的作者之一。他并不是苹果或本文提到的任何一家公司的投资人。

As Apple’s stock climbed to its fifth record in March on Tuesday, and it’s 11th record this year, it’s a good time to take a serious look at what the tech giant should take on next. Apple is renowned for being a great disruptor, relying on a “build rather than buy” approach. However, when the company released an underwhelming new iPad last week, many began to question its innovator status.

I previously argued that Apple is pursuing a harvest strategy, a smart strategic move in which it extracts as much profit as possible from a static or declining market. iPad sales are down (along with all tablets), and Apple is trying to capture returns while it is still possible to do so. This makes sense, and the markets seem to agree, as Apple stock hit another record level yesterday.

However, the Mac, iPad and iPhone – responsible for more than 85% of Apple’s revenue – are all under increasing pressure today, and the future looks harder, not easier. Consumers are resisting the urge to upgrade for marginal improvements. Competitors, like Samsung, ZTE and Huawei are closing the quality gap and are, in many cases, providing superior features at a lower cost. Plus, IOS is losing the global platform war with Android. While there is still plenty of harvesting to be done from these lines of business, the long-term prognosis does not look positive.

To reassert its place as a digital disruptor, Apple will need to move from a defensive strategy to an offensive one. Thankfully, Apple has the brand name, the loyal following, and, with around $200 billion in cash on the balance sheet, the money to do so. Yet, while other cash-rich competitors have splashed out on high-profile acquisitions, Apple has largely watched from the sidelines. Its largest acquisition to date has been Beats for $3 billion in 2014 – a mere pittance compared to many of its peers.

Apple’s recent attempts to occupy new battlegrounds have not been very successful. The Apple Watch has failed to ‘revolutionize the wrist;’ Apple’s car strategy seems to have stalled and Apple Music has not been closing the gap to Spotify. Apple needs to become better at occupying new competitive spaces, as explained in the Digital Vortex, whether or not it is the disruptor.

Building from scratch takes time, and Apple has lost momentum recently in areas outside its core. The company has cash, and now is the time to spend it. It’s time to buy rather than build.

So what should Apple’s next acquisition be? First, any acquisition should fit the company’s image. It should have great design, be innovative, simplistic, technology-focused, and have a high-end or luxury reputation. These criteria rule out some commonly considered targets such as Disney (too diversified) and Sony (too complex). A list of possible and not-so-possible contenders includes:

Pandora ($3 billion market cap)

An acquisition of Spotify would probably not clear anti-trust scrutiny, so if Apple wants to gain an additional foothold in the music streaming arena, it could buy Pandora for a relatively small $3 billion to $5 billion. However, this will not move the needle much, and Apple should be thinking bigger.

Tesla ($44 billion market cap)

Apple and Tesla have been trading barbs and engineers for years. Buying Tesla could be a fast way for Apple to enter the car business, with a strong, high-end, innovative brand. However, Tesla is relatively small, unprofitable and vulnerable to shocks. It is also very much linked to its CEO, Elon Musk, which could mean a clash of egos with Apple CEO Tim Cook.

PayPal ($52 billion market cap)

Apple Pay, launched with great fanfare in October 2014, has not taken off as quickly as many expected. Apple has learned the hard way that the financial services industry is complex, well protected and generally hard to crack. The acquisition of PayPal (assuming it is approved by anti-trust regulators) would give Apple more heft to convince both consumers to adopt and merchants to accept its payment service. However, financial services are a long way from Apple’s core, and could become a distraction.

Activision Blizzard ($37 billion market cap)

Apple could move into the gaming arena, which has now become bigger than both the movie and music industries combined. While Activision Blizzard does not have a game console business, it is strong in PC, online and mobile gaming (with the acquisition of the parent company of Candy Crush). If Apple wants to enter an adjacent industry, this is an interesting option.

Netflix ($61 billion market cap)

Apple has been dancing around video for years, but has never managed to crack the upper echelons of content creation or distribution. It has achieved great success by capturing value from devices such as the iPod, iPhone and iPad at the expense of content generators and other ecosystem players. However, there is plenty of evidence to suggest this balance is swinging away from device manufacturers. Both Netflix and Amazon understood this trend, and have been making strides to get ahead of it.

Netflix has been tremendously successful — first in the distribution, and now in the generation of content. Apple, by contrast, has been slow to react. It will have a hard time bridging this gap, especially with the traditional content generators waking up to the value they create, and other new entrants, like Amazon, making a lot of noise. Netflix is an expensive option, but would bring Apple massive platform value.

With its reputation at stake, Apple must expand on its current strategy and open new markets to play in. Harvesting as much profit as possible from its current hardware business makes sense, but it needs to transfer this value to new areas, such as gaming, and content generation and distribution. Traditionally, Apple builds its own products to enter new markets. However, its last few attempts to do so have flopped and time is not on its side. Therefore, Apple should use its massive wealth to make strategic acquisitions and occupy adjacent markets – with Activision Blizzard or Netflix making very attractive targets.

Michael Wade is Director of the Global Center for Digital Business Transformation, Professor of Innovation and Strategy at IMD and co-author of Digital Vortex: How Today's Market Leaders Can Beat Disruptive Competitors at Their Own Game. Wade is not an investor in Apple or other companies noted in this article.