谁将成为首家市值冲破1万亿美元大关的公司？

猜测谁将成为首家市值冲破万亿美元的公司，已经成为投资者和公司高管最喜欢的业余消遣之一。

这个令人瞠目的13位数，足以购买约13亿部iPhone 7 Plus手机，而苹果公司通常也被视为最快达到1万亿美元市值的头号种子选手。

但巴克莱银行认为，另一家甚至还不到这个数字一半的公司才是这顶王冠的最有力竞争者。它就是零售和云服务巨头亚马逊公司。在过去一年中，亚马逊的股价飙涨了48%，目前的股价超过887美元，创历史新高。

在上周向客户发布的一份研究报告中，巴克莱银行分析师罗斯·桑德勒领导的研究团队写道，“在我们看来，这是迟早的事情。”他们认为，亚马逊将成为第一家达到这个惊人市值的公司。

上周五早上，亚马逊股价上涨了逾1%，有望连续第三天创下新高，进而让这家电子商务巨头的市值达到4240亿美元。

亚马逊去年的表现似乎无法令投资者不满，其利润增长近三倍，达到24亿美元，销售额约为1360亿美元，比上年增长了27%。

如果亚马逊的股价继续保持过去12个月的上涨速度，它的市值只需两年多一点的时间就将达到惊人的1万亿美元。然而，要维持如此迅猛的增速绝非易事。亚马逊股票仍然需要在目前的基础上飙涨140%，才能达到13位数市值。市场很少如此稳定，投资者很少如此忠诚，竞争对手也很少像这样年复一年地缺少威胁。

这也许正是为什么巴克莱认为亚马逊可能成为首批市值冲破万亿大关的上市公司之一，但这一幕至少不会在下一个十年出现。到2027年，分析师预测称，亚马逊最终可能达到约910亿美元的市值，距离1万亿仍然差大约10%。

届时，巴克莱银行估计亚马逊的收入将增长近三倍至5940亿美元。

但鉴于其他竞争者的市值更加接近这个目标，亚马逊在通往1万亿美元市值的道路上必将面临残酷的竞争。要想拔得头筹，亚马逊必须得击败以下这几家公司：

1.苹果一直是备受华尔街青睐的竞争者。坐拥7560亿美元市值的苹果，不仅是最大的标准普尔500指数成分股公司，就连沃伦·巴菲特也对这只股票赞不绝口。他的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购买了价值数十亿美元的苹果股票。巴菲特甚至预测称，苹果很可能先于伯克希尔冲破1万亿美元大关，后者目前的市值为4120亿美元。但要达到这个数字，投资者需要推动这只科技股再增长32%。尽管信心满满的投资者指出，备受期待的iPhone 8，以及苹果在增强现实领域的进展将助推该公司企及这个数字，但慷慨的股票回购和分红计划可能会减慢这一进程，因为这些资金原本可以用来开发有吸引力的新产品。

2. 谷歌的母公司Alphabet是标准普尔500指数第二大成分股，目前的市值为5810亿美元。这只股票还需要飙涨72%，才能抵达1万亿美元。这意味着，Alphabet的股价需要达到1460美元。在过去一年中，这只股票上涨了11%。

3.微软参与这场竞逐战的时间远大于其他竞争者。这家42岁高龄的公司远比亚马逊更加接近1万亿美元市值。微软目前的市值为4170亿美元，还需要增长98%才能抵达这个目标。

4. Facebook是标准普尔500指数第五大成分股公司，目前的市值为4120亿美元。要想达到1万亿美元，其142美元的股价还需要增长143%。但它最近的表现引发了市场传闻：Facebook可能成为首批达到这一目标的公司之一。在过去一年，这只股票上涨了23%。

5.伊隆·马斯克的特斯拉公司是一匹横空出世的黑马。它的名字也跻身市场传闻的1万亿美元市值竞争者之列。

事实上，正是马斯克自己推动这家电动汽车公司加入战团。为了说服投资者相信特斯拉收购太阳能公司SolarCity是精明之举，这位以连续创业著称的特斯拉CEO声称，合并后的公司终有一日将达到1万亿美元市值。诚然，马斯克是在为自己摇旗呐喊，但过去在展望自家公司的发展轨迹时，他的预言往往非常准确。但这将是一个很难实现的成就：特斯拉目前的市值为4500亿美元，要达到这个目标，其股价还需要增长2122%。

假设巴克莱银行所言不虚，亚马逊的市值将在2027年底达到1万亿美元，特斯拉的股价需要每年飙涨33%才能捷足先登。也许，马斯克不会赢得这场竞赛。（财富中文网）

译者：Kevin

It has become a favorite pastime among investors and company executives to speculate: who will be the first trillion-dollar company?

That value is an eye-popping 13 figures long, and would be enough to buy about 1.3 billion of the iPhone 7 Plus, made by Apple (aapl, -0.19%), the company that's usually considered top-seeded to reach $1 trillion in market value the soonest.

But banking giant Barclays thinks another company that's not even halfway to a $1 trillion market cap is a strong contender for the crown: Amazon.com (amzn, +1.16%), the retail and now cloud giant whose stock price has shot up by 48% over the past year, and is now trading at a record high of more than $887 a share.

“It’s just a question of when, not if, in our view,” the team led by Barclays analyst Ross Sandler wrote in a note to clients this week, saying the company would be among the first to reach that valuation.

Amazon stock rose more than 1% Friday morning, on track to set a new high for the third day in a row, and giving the e-commerce company a market valuation of $424 billion.

Amazon seemed incapable of displeasing investors last year, with its profits growing nearly three-fold to $2.4 billion, on sales of about $136 billion, a 27% increase over the year prior.

If Amazon shares keep rising at the clip they have in the last 12 months, it will get to the elusive $1 trillion market cap in just a little more than two years. Yet it's an incredibly brisk pace to maintain: Amazon stock still needs to gain 140% from its current price to reach that 13-figure valuation. Markets are rarely so steady, investors so faithful, nor competitors so unthreatening year after year.

That's perhaps why Barclays thinks Amazon may become one of the first trillion-dollar publicly traded companies, but not for at least another decade. By 2027, the analysts predict that Amazon may finally reach a market cap of about $910 billion, still about 10% shy $1 trillion.

By then, Barclays estimates that Amazon's revenue will nearly triple to $594 billion.

But Amazon will have tough competition in the race to a $1 trillion valuation, considering there are other contenders whose market caps are much closer to that goal. Here's the short list of companies Amazon may have to beat:

1. Apple has been the favored contender on Wall Street. It's not only the biggest company in the S&P 500 with a $756 billion market cap, but even Warren Buffett has given the stock his approval. The investor's firm, Berkshire Hathaway (brk.a, -0.77%) has purchased billions of dollars worth of Apple's stock. Buffett even predicted Apple was likely to reach $1 trillion before Berkshire, which has a current market value of $412 billion. But to reach that figure, investors will need to push the tech stock up another 32%. While bullish investors point to the company's highly anticipated iPhone 8 release and developments in augmented reality as reasons the company will get there, Apple's generous share buyback and dividend program could slow its progress by giving away funds that could be used to develop new and attractive products instead.

2. Alphabet, the parent company of Google (googl, -0.20%), is the second largest company on the S&P 500 by market cap, having reached a $581 billion valuation. The stock would need to rise 72% to reach $1 trillion, meaning Alphabet would trade at $1,460 a share. Over the last year, the stock has risen 11%.

3. Microsoft, a 42-year-old company that has been around much longer than some of the other contestants in this race, is far closer to a $1 trillion market cap than Amazon. Microsoft (msft, +0.23%) is currently valued at $417 billion—but it will need a 98% boost to reach $1 trillion.

4. Facebook is the fifth largest company by market cap on the S&P 500, with a market capitalization of $412 billion. What Facebook (fb, -0.22%) needs to reach $1 trillion is a 143% boost to its share price of $142. But its recent performance has helped fan rumors that the company may be among the first to reach the target: The stock has risen 23% over the past year.

5. Tesla, Elon Musk's electric car company, is a dark horse whose name has also been thrust into the $1 trillion rumor mill as well.

In fact, it was Musk himself who threw it in the ring while trying to convince investors that Tesla (tsla, +0.14%) acquiring SolarCity was a good decision: The combined giant could one day reach $1 trillion, the Tesla CEO and serial entrepreneur said. Sure, Musk was tooting his own horn, but he's also been shockingly right in the past when it came to predicting his company's trajectory. But it would be a difficult feat to achieve: Tesla would need its share price to grow 2,122% from its current market cap of $45 billion.

Assuming Barclays is in the right ballpark, and Amazon reaches $1 trillion at the very end of 2027, Tesla will need to be going at the breakneck pace of about 33% annually to beat that. Perhaps Musk won't win this contest.