摩根大通CEO：特朗普要开始“做香肠”了

摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙最近俨然成了特朗普眼中的大红人。此前，特朗普曾盛情邀请戴蒙出任新一届政府的财政部长，虽然戴蒙拒绝了，但这说明了他在特朗普心中的份量。而戴蒙上周写给股东的信也颇像是一份写给特朗普的谏言书。

所以当戴蒙上周四上午出席摩根大通的电视电话会议，讨论该公司第一季度的财务业绩时，华尔街分析师们纷纷抓住这次机会向他发问，想从他的回答中抓住一些蛛丝马迹，看特朗普下一步的施政重点是什么。

从今年第一季度的收益看，摩根大通无疑是“川普热”的受益者。自特朗普当选以来，摩根大通的股价已经大涨了21%。今年第一季度，摩根大通的市场交易收益也比上年同期上涨了14%。公司总收益上涨6%，达247亿美元，超过了分析师的预期；其利润也上涨了17%，达到64亿美元。

目前对于摩根大通来说，最重要的问题就是特朗普承诺的经济改革是否能够迅速推行，这样才能保持住摩根大通当前旺盛的增长势头。而这也是投资者们最关心的问题——尤其是特朗普还在将万众期待的税收改革的启动时间不断延后。

戴蒙在本周四的收益电话会议上对记者们表示：“我不想妄下断言”。虽然特朗普政府的医保法案没能在国会获得通过，令许多投资者深感不安，但戴蒙依然认为特朗普的执政前景是光明的。他认为在经济改革方面，真正的进展可能要等本月底，也就是特朗普执政满百天后才会启动。

戴蒙在会上向分析师们表示：“你们可能都以为新总统上台后马上就会实施改革。实际上，新总统执政百天之后的那9个月才是一个‘做香肠’的过程。事情可能有高潮也有低谷，有赢也有输。不过特朗普的经改日程是有益于经济增长的——比如税收改革、基础建设和监管改革等等。这是好事，如果一切顺利的话，这些改革一旦启动，会有益于全体美国人。”

不过戴蒙也提醒道，投资者们要打起精神为下一阶段做好准备，因为华盛顿总是不可避免地会传来各种利好和利空的消息，因此“川普热”也必然会让位于总体的市场波动。“它不会是一帆风顺的，如果你那样认为就太傻了。”

大体看来，戴蒙对特朗普政府目前的执政状态还是满意的。当被问到特朗普对联邦储备委员会中暂时空缺的几个位子有何意向时，戴蒙竟然先将从摩根大通的老对头——高盛——走出去的新政府首席经济顾问和财政部长恭维了一番：“我认为加里·科恩和史蒂芬·姆努钦都在做着正确的事情。他们想找到合适的人选填补这些职位，我猜他们正在跟很多人谈话。”

戴蒙也再次强调道，在拒绝了财政部长一职后，他也不会参加联邦储备委员会。他开玩笑地说道：“我不感兴趣。”（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

The CEO of J.P. Morgan has recently become a sort of Wall Street ambassador to Donald Trump: Jamie Dimon was offered, but declined, his own White House Cabinet job, and the banker's annual letter to shareholders last week read like an advice manual for the President.

So when Dimon appeared on the J.P. Morgan earnings call Thursday morning to discuss the bank's first-quarter results, Wall Street analysts naturally treated it as an opportunity to ask the oracle to prognosticate about the next chapter of Trump's presidency.

The bank's earnings, after all, showed just how big a beneficiary J.P. Morgan Chase (jpm, -1.41%) has been of the "Trump Bump," which has not only propelled J.P. Morgan's stock price 21% higher since the election, but also lifted the company's markets trading revenues 14% in the first quarter compared to the prior year. That helped the bank boost total revenue for the period by 6%, above analysts' expectations, to $24.7 billion, while its profits rose 17%, to $6.4 billion.

The question for J.P Morgan now, and the one on investors' minds, is whether the President's promised economic reforms, which have driven the market's rally, will kick in soon enough to sustain it—especially given that Trump keeps pushing back the timeline for his highly anticipated tax reform plan.

"I don't want to put odds on it," Dimon said to reporters on the call Thursday. But though the administration's recent failure to pass its health care bill has made investors more skittish, Dimon later predicted that better days are ahead for Trump's presidency. In fact, the CEO expects the real progress to start as early as later this month, when Trump marks his first 100 days in the White House.

"You should all expect that when you have a new President and he gets going, the nine months after the 100 days is going to be a sausage-making period," Dimon told analysts during the earnings call. "There will be ups and downs, wins and losses, stuff like that. But it is a pro-growth agenda—tax, infrastructure, regulatory reform—and that is a good thing, all things being equal, and we think if that took place it would help all Americans."

Still, Dimon hinted that investors should brace themselves for this next phase, as the Trump Bump is likely to give way to general market bumpiness when more surprises and upsets inevitably emerge from Washington. "It’s not expected to be smooth sailing, that would just be silly," he warned.

Overall, though, Dimon seems content with the state of the Trump administration. Asked about Trump's plans to fill the remaining vacant positions on the Federal Reserve Board, Dimon even went so far as to compliment members of the Trump administration who hail from J.P. Morgan's arch rival, Goldman Sachs (gs, -1.08%). "I think Gary Cohn and Steven Mnuchin are doing the right thing," Dimon said, speaking of Trump's chief economic advisor and Treasury secretary, respectively. "They want to find the right people for those jobs. I gather they are talking to lots of people."

Dimon made clear, however, that he himself, who had been recently recruited for the Treasury post, was not one of the potential candidates: "I'm not interested," he joked.