华尔街为何不再关注特朗普的言论

上周，世界上最有影响力的思想者和潮流引领者在贝弗利山召开年会。企业领袖和主要投资者在会上表示，他们已经习惯于忽略唐纳德·特朗普总统的大多数言论或者推文。

在米尔肯研究院全球年会的座谈会上，首席执行官和亿万富翁们普遍对特朗普的医保改革、减税、放松管制以及刺激经济计划持乐观态度。摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙和对冲基金亿万富翁肯·格里芬等发言人对总统做出了积极评价，他们还敦促与会者给总统更多时间来实现这些宏伟目标。

但在会议间隙接受采访时，这些华尔街人士却对特朗普能否做点儿什么深表怀疑。

一位来自美国六大银行的高管表示：“我不会把特朗普的话当真，而且听的越来越少。”

和大多数希望私下表达较坦率看法的人一样，这位高管要求不透露其身份，以免惹怒总统、自己的老板或者商业伙伴。但和路透社沟通时，至少有十几位机构投资者和银行高管表达了同样的观点。

虽然对特朗普能够推动国会批准改革方案仍抱有希望，但他们指出，由于缺乏进展，再加上政府传出的信息自相矛盾，很难让人坚定信心。

几名受访者提到了财政部长史蒂文·努钦本周一的言论，后者在一次座谈会上开玩笑说，银行投资者应该感谢他提振了股价。几个小时后，彭博新闻社报道了对特朗普的采访，后者表示他正在考虑拆分国内最大的几家银行——摩根大通、美银和花旗集团等银行的股东对这样的想法深恶痛绝。

不过，在贝弗利希尔顿酒店召开的本次会议上，看来几乎没有人把总统的这番话当真。

商业律师事务所Hogan Lovells监管事务律师艾伦·卡特勒说：“成为法律前，你都不能对此抱有希望。”卡特勒是银行和对冲基金在国会的游说代表，接受采访时正在一个阳光露台上踱步。他说自己的客户尚未就政府的任何表态采取行动。

普华永道金融服务监管事务部门上周发表的报告和卡特勒观点一致。尽管特朗普表示要迅速采取行动，但普华永道预计他的命令将“取得的成果了了”，推翻多德-弗兰克法案的计划不会成行，而且政府的任何调整都将步调缓慢，原因是缺乏共识、任命程序拖沓以及中期选举即将到来。

我们请特朗普的一位女发言人就此发表评论，但本文刊发时尚未得到回应。

虽然私下里对政府自相矛盾的信息不以为然，但华尔街大佬们在本次会议以及会后的奢华派对上仍和白宫高官眉来眼去。在一个晚间聚会上，有位嘉宾跑得像圣地亚哥动物园的猎豹一样快。

除了努钦，商务部长威尔伯•罗斯、交通部长赵小兰和教育部长贝琪·德沃斯都是本次米尔肯年会的特邀发言人。他们都有商业或金融背景，这让其他与会者倍感振奋。

有些人指出，最终他们必须判断一下特朗普的话是为了在政治上给自己加分，还是他真的希望实现这样的目标。如果是前一种情况，把总统的言论抛诸脑后就更为容易。一家管理数十亿美元资产的对冲基金公司负责人说，目前的局面已经变成了“一场罗夏墨迹测验”，人们对特朗普的话欢欣鼓舞还是无动于衷取决于他们自己想看到什么。

CQS是一家规模达到125亿美元的投资公司，其创始人迈克尔·辛兹爵士说人们对总统过于苛刻。特朗普本质上不是政界人士，所以其风格可能有所不同，但他的初衷是好的。

辛兹爵士表示：“我对整体情况的看法相当积极。在会上每个人都说恨他，（但）特朗普是个正派的人。”（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审稿：夏林

At an annual gathering of the world's most powerful thinkers and trendsetters in Beverly Hills this week, business leaders and major investors said they have gotten used to dismissing most things that President Donald Trump says or tweets.

On panels at the Milken Institute Global Conference, CEOs and billionaires were generally enthusiastic about Trump's mission to reform health care, cut taxes, reduce regulations, and stimulate the economy. Panelists including JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon and hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin offered positive remarks about the president and urged attendees to give him more time to accomplish such sizeable goals.

But in interviews on the sidelines, the Wall Street set was far more dubious that Trump can get anything done.

"I don't take Trump seriously," said a senior executive at one of the country's six largest banks. "I'm listening less and less."

Like most who wanted to share their more candid views privately, the executive spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid angering the president, his employer or business associates. But his comments were echoed by at least a dozen institutional investors and bank executives who spoke to Reuters.

While they remain hopeful Trump will be able to get reforms through Congress, the lack of progress combined with conflicting messages coming out of the administration make it hard to put faith in anything, they said.

Several cited comments on Monday from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who joked on a panel that bank investors should thank him for boosting share prices. Hours later, Bloomberg News published an interview with Trump, in which said he was considering breaking up the country's biggest banks – an idea that is an anathema to shareholders of lenders like JPMorgan, Bank of America Corp or Citigroup Inc.

However, few people at the event in the Beverly Hilton Hotel appeared to take the comment seriously.

"Until it's signed into law, you can't bank on it," said Aaron Cutler, a regulatory lawyer at Hogan Lovells who lobbies Congress on behalf of banks and hedge funds and was milling about on a sunny terrace. He said his clients are not yet acting on anything the administration says.

A report last week by PwC's financial services regulatory practice echoed that view. Despite Trump's talk of quick action, PwC predicts his executive orders will "yield few results," that plans to repeal a package of financial regulations called Dodd-Frank will not happen, and that any change in Washington will be slow due to a lack of consensus, a slothy appointments process and upcoming midterm elections.

A spokeswoman for Trump did not return a request for comment for this article by publication time.

Even as Wall Street honchos privately disregard the administration's mixed messages, they were rubbing shoulders with top White House officials around the event and afterwards at swanky parties. Among the guests at one evening soirée was a cheetah from the San Diego Zoo.

In addition to Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao and Education Secretary Betsy DeVos were all featured speakers at the Milken conference. Each has a background in business or finance, something other conference-goers found encouraging.

Ultimately, some said, they have to consider whether Trump is making a statement to win political points or because he truly wants to accomplish a goal. If the former, his remarks can be more easily dismissed, they said. The head of a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm said the situation has become "a Rorschach test" where people celebrate or shrug off Trump's comments depending on what they want to see.

Sir Michael Hintze, founder of $12.5 billion investment firm CQS, said people are being too hard on the president. Trump may have a different style because he is not a politician by nature, but has his heart in the right place, Hintze said.

"I'm pretty constructive about the whole thing," he said. "Everyone was there to hate him, (but) Trump's a decent man."