如果你在IPO时投资了亚马逊，现在就是百万富翁了

投资巨头沃伦·巴菲特有充足的理由为没有在亚马逊（Amazon）上市时购买其股票而后悔，而大部分投资者也是如此。

假如一个叫乔的普通人决定省下5,000美元，在20年前亚马逊首次公开募股时购买他们的股票，那这些股票的价值现在至少已经达到240万美元。

尽管这些回报会让乔非常高兴，不过在巴菲特720亿美元的净资产里，240万美元几乎不算什么。此外，他经常在自己认为值得的公司里投入比这更多的资金。举个例子，1990年他第一次投资富国银行（Wells Fargo）时，投资额就有290万美元。

所以可以想象一下，假如这位奥马哈的先知在早期带头投资亚马逊，能获得怎样的回报。在1997年5月15日那个周四，亚马逊在纳斯达克（Nasdaq）上市，巴菲特决定斥资5,000万美元投资。现在，该公司的股价已经是原来的大约488倍，所以这些股票的价值将达到244亿美元。

在这个平行世界里，巴菲特对亚马逊的持股（假设这是私人投资）会帮助他的净资产达到大约960亿美元，超越现在的比尔·盖茨、亚马逊的首席执行官杰夫·贝佐斯和西班牙商人阿曼西奥·奥尔特加·高纳，成为世界首富。目前比尔·盖茨的净资产大约为870亿美元。

当然，现实情况下，巴菲特或其他投资者很难在亚马逊上市时买到5,000万美元的股票。当时亚马逊的估值大约是4.4亿美元，希望通过首次公开募股筹得大约5,400万美元。

与此同时，亚马逊过去20年的股价走势，对任何投资者而言都是折磨，即便是巴菲特这样的长线投资者也不例外。亚马逊上市两年后，互联网泡沫下的吹捧和狂热，让公司的估值上涨8,162%，达到364亿美元。

而到2001年底，泡沫破碎了。Pets.com等一系列互联网公司倒闭，这让认为投资者过于迫切地寻找快速增长的公司的舆论愈演愈烈。当时刚刚开始盈利的亚马逊，也没有在投资者过敏不安的举动下幸免。当年，公司市值萎缩到了22亿美元，贝佐斯说“持有我们的股票可能会让你睡不好觉”。亚马逊又花了六年时间，才让公司的市值达到泡沫破碎之前的高度。

尽管巴菲特反复表示没有投资亚马逊是一个错误，但他也没有现在购买股票的意思。而且现在投资亚马逊也不是一个简单的决定。亚马逊增长很快，规模很大——他们还能以这样的速度发展多久是个问题。如今公司的市值为4,579亿美元，2016年收入为1,360亿美元，比大约20年前的170亿美元收入增长了7倍。

根据华尔街的预计，即使亚马逊增速放缓，他们也依旧是最有可能成为全球第一家市值达到1万亿美元的公司之一。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

Investment titan Warren Buffett has good reason to regret not buying Amazon when it first went public — as do most investors.

Had the average Joe decided to save $5,000 and spend it on Amazon's stock when it first hit the public markets 20 years ago, they be worth at least $2.4 million today.

While those returns would have made the average Joe quite happy, $2.4 million would've hardly been noticeable in Buffett's now $72 billion net worth. Moreover, the investor has typically made much larger investments in companies he considers worthy. When Buffett first invested in Wells Fargo in 1990 for instance, Buffett decided to put $290 million into the banking giant.

So imagine an alternate reality in which the Oracle of Omaha decided to take the leap and invest in Amazon in its early days. In that world, Buffett decided to put say $50 million in company on Thursday, May 15, 1997 — the day Amazon it debuted on the Nasdaq. Today, that same stake would be worth $24.4 billion as the company's shares have grown some 488 times.

The value of Buffett's alternative universe stake in Amazon (assuming he personally invested in it) would have helped him beat out Bill Gates, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, and Spanish businessman Amancio Ortega Gaona today, to become the world's wealthiest man with some $96 billion to his name. Gates is currently worth some $87 billion.

In reality of course, it would have been quite difficult for Buffett, or any investor for that matter, to buy about $50 million of Amazon's stock on the day of its IPO. The company's IPO sought to raise only about $54 million for a market value of about $440 million at the time.

Meanwhile, Amazon's stock performance over those 20 years would have been trying for any investor — even one who thinks as long term as Buffett. For two years following Amazon's public debut, the euphoria and hype that defined the dot-com bubble helped heat Amazon's valuation up 8,162% to $36.4 billion.

By late 2001, though, the rose-colored glasses were off. A series of dot-com companies, including Pets,com had closed their doors, fanning concerns that investors had been too eager in their search for a fast growing company. Amazon, which had yet to turn a profit at the time, was no exception to the jitters. The company's market cap shrank to some $2.2 billion in 2001, while Bezos remarked at the time that "we are not a stock you can sleep well with at night." It would be another six years before Amazon's market cap recovered to its pre-crash high.

While Buffett has repeatedly said not investing in Amazon was a mistake, he has yet to show signs of wanting to buy the stock now. And buying Amazon now isn't an easy decision to make. Amazon has grown fast and large—raising questions about how long the company can continue at its current rate. Now the company worth $457.9 billion in market cap, with revenue of $136 billion in 2016. That's up 7 times from its $17 billion revenue some 20 years ago.

Even if growth slows for Amazon though, it is still one of the companies with potential to become the world's first $1 trillion company, according to Wall Street.