苹果会如何成为第一家市值1万亿美元的公司？

迈入2017年，苹果的股价就在或多或少地一路上扬，迄今涨幅已经达到了38%，也让公司当前的市值超过了8,200亿美元。尽管苹果的股价在本周达到了历史最高的近162美元，但华尔街至少还有分析师认为，另一场盛事有望让苹果成为第一家市值1万亿美元的公司。

RBC Capital Markets的阿米特·德莱纳里表示，苹果的股价还会上升到192至195美元，从而达到1万亿美元的市值，这取决于公司股票回购的比例。德莱纳里计算到，苹果的交易价大约是预计第二年的每股收益的16倍，所以苹果的每股收益需要从2017年预计的9美元左右提高到2019年的12美元。

德莱纳里写道：“苹果有潜力在未来12至18个月内实现1万亿美元的市值，甚至超过这个值。我们通过多个杠杆看到了这种上行潜力。”

他表示，让苹果的每股收益达到12美元的“杠杆”就是新款iPhone机型，包括高价的高端机型带来的收入，越来越多的服务收入也有助于公司扩大利润，更好地限制成本，并进行强有力的股票回购。

这种预测建立在苹果消费者和投资者的期待上，他们认为iPhone的下一代产品将具有巨大的吸引力。三年来，苹果手机的外观设计都大体雷同，如今，关于2017年的机型将拥有至少一款彻底革新产品的流言已经甚嚣尘上。这款新机型被大众称作iPhone 8、iPhone X或iPhone Pro，据说会采用亮度更高的OLED无边框屏幕。人们普遍认为这款尚未发布的iPhone将会带来强劲的销量，也会帮助公司的股价在现在的基础上继续提高。上周，苹果发布了最近季度的财报，但华尔街几乎已经忽略了苹果过去的销售额，关注点反而变成了通过财报的预期收益来推测下一代iPhone的推出时间。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

Apple stock has more or less been on a tear in 2017, rising 38% and giving the company a current stock market value of over $820 billion. But even with the stock hitting an all-time high of almost $162 this week, at least one analyst on Wall Street sees a way for another big rally that would make Apple the first $1 trillion-dollar company.

Amit Daryanani at RBC Capital Markets says Apple's share price would have to rise from its current level to about $192 to $195, depending on the rate of the company's stock buybacks, to reach the $1 trillion value. With Apple trading at 16 times its estimated next year's per share profits, profits would need to increase from an estimated $9 or so in 2017 to $12 in 2019, Daryanani calculates.

"Apple has potential to achieve a $1 trillion dollar market cap and even surpass that over the next 12 to 18 months," writes Daryanani. "We see upside occurring from multiple levers."

Those "levers" to get to $12 per share in profit are revenue increasing from new iPhone models, including a higher-priced premium model, growing services revenue helping to expand profit margins, tighter cost control and strong stock buybacks, he says.

The prediction comes as anticipation is building among Apple customers and investors that the next round of iPhone updates could be particularly enticing. After Apple mostly stuck with the same external design for three years in a row, the rumor mill is full of leaks that the 2017 lineup will include at least one radically resigned model. Dubbed by outsiders the iPhone 8, iPhone X, or iPhone Pro, the new phone is predicted to have a brighter OLED screen stretching from edge to edge.Expectations for strong sales of the yet-to-be-announced iPhones have helped push the stock price to its current level. When Apple reported results last week for its most recent quarter, Wall Street almost ignored the past sales, focusing instead on what the company's forecast was hinting about the timing of the next iPhone.