深度分析：比特币在2018年还能涨多少？
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如果杰瑞·布里托（Jerry Brito）的女儿再晚一点出生的话，等待她的可能便是一个完全不同的名字。11月，布里托在医院徘徊了23个小时，在生产室外等待妻子生产，他随口为女儿取了另外一个名字：“1万”。 数年以来，非营利性组织Coin Center创始执行董事布里托一直都致力于宣传比特币，他认为加密货币及其背后的技术将大幅改变我们的经济，重塑这个人们出生的世界。如今，布里托两个期盼已久的梦想即将实现。妻子刚过感恩节不久便走进了产房，而比特币也开始了其腾飞之旅。比特币价格在年初的时候是950美元，然后在布里托于妇产医院等待的这段时间内突破了9000美元大关。这也解释了为什么他的女儿在出生时会如此耐心，他说道：“我女儿要等到比特币突破1万美元之后才愿意降生到这个世上。” 不过，布里托的女儿出生于11月27日，还是早了些，当时比特币价格还只有9600美元，因此布里托夫妇为女儿取了另一个名字。然而，比特币在第二天晚上便突破了10000美元。就在这位小姑娘出生后10天，比特币的价格再次翻了一番，达到了2万美元。总的来说，比特币自2017年初以来上涨了约20倍，让几乎所有的传统投资都黯然失色。 对于比特币的拥趸来说，价格的飙升是对其根深蒂固信仰的报答。布里托说：“在我看来，这项科技明显与以前和现在的互联网一样，具有深远的影响力。”但是比特币的飙升还指明了这场革命的未来方向。关注短期利益的投资者害怕错过这一千载难逢的机遇，义无反顾地投资比特币，引发了比特币的狂热。唯一获授权的美国比特币经纪交易商Genesis Trading的董事总经理马丁·加西亚（Martin Garcia）说：“如果比特币成功了，我曾有过的机遇不会落到我儿子头上，必然也就轮不到我的孙子。”“一旦成功之后，它将成为一种无聊的投资——也就是全球资金流通的一种方式。”然而，这种无聊的投资无法让你的投资在一年之内飙升1800%。 回归主流 比特币此前也曾出现过热潮。在2013年，其价格翻了85倍；第二年便出现了崩盘，原因是Mt. Gox交易所遭到了黑客攻击，动摇了众多早期投资者的信心。直到2017年，比特币才迎来了拐点，进入了主流投资客的视野。截止到11月，美国最大的比特币交易所Coinbase签约了1200万名用户，超过了拥有46年历史的经纪商Charles Schwab的客户数量。在几周的时间里，Coinbase应用成为了iPhone下载量最大的应用。在截稿之时，比特币的市值达到了约3000亿美元，然而它曾经只不过是离经叛道者的幻想罢了。 Digital Currency Group业务开发总监梅尔特姆·德米罗斯（Meltem Demirors）表示，“我们正在经历本世纪最大的财富创造机遇，而且人们希望从中分一杯羹。”DCG负责监管加密货币资产组合，其中包括1%的比特币总供应量。它还投资了从事区块链工作的初创企业。区块链是一种会计工具，它使用计算机网络来共同维持相互信任、分享的交易分账户，无需依靠任何外部机构作为中介。 地缘政治的动荡提升了这一技术的吸引力。自2009年面世以来，比特币便一直受益于金融危机引发的各大机构之间的极度不信任。而且随着民粹主义情绪在西方的蔓延，人们也开始呼吁设立一种能够摆脱政府和银行控制的分散式货币体系。比特币的价格在2016年英国脱欧公投之后出现了飞跃，然后在唐纳德·特朗普入主白宫之后再次大幅上涨。鉴于价格的急剧攀升，再加上勒索软件对支付比特币的要求以及委内瑞拉等国的买家寻求躲避超级通胀，比特币的重要性比以往任何时候都更加深入人心。 风投资本公司Placeholder联合创始人、新比特币投资者指南《Cryptoassets》合著者克里斯·彭尼斯克（Chris Burniske）说：“确实有人将其作为一种防灾避害的手段，就像人们购买黄金一样。”亿万富翁、前对冲基金经理迈克·诺瓦格拉茨（Mike Novogratz）亦同意这一观点：比特币热背后有“太多的弹药”作为支撑。他目前在比特币和其他加密货币中的投资占其净财富的30%。每一个体制的失败都再次肯定了这一观点；在富国银行虚假账户丑闻这类的事件得以曝光之后，他问道，“我凭什么还去相信那些该死的银行？” 信任与否，银行和资产管理商也都蓄势待发，进军比特币市场。Gemini首席执行官兼联合创始人泰勒·温科勒弗斯指出，“华尔街刚开始小心翼翼地接触这一市场。” 12月，Gemini旗下加密货币交易所在比特币期货合约领域选择了一个较为传统的合作伙伴——CBOE，为机构投资巨头提供了一个参与这一市场的机会。“目前比特币的第一轮热潮已经结束。” 在怀疑论者看来，这一对比特币趋之若鹜的情景并不陌生，只不过是新瓶装旧酒罢了，同时也掺杂了狂热的暴富心理，其悲惨的结局已是隐约可见。诺贝尔奖得主经济学家罗伯特·施乐（Robert Shiller）（他专门就这一主题撰写了一本书）警告说：“这基本上就是互联网泡沫或房市泡沫的再现。”（施乐曾预见了互联网和房市泡沫的破灭，他对《财富》说，他正在酝酿出版第四版《非理性繁荣》（ Irrational Exuberance），并在其中收录加密货币狂热。） 然而，乐观主义者蜂拥而至的现象目前依然在持续，人们对经济学家的警告和可能的灾难也是嗤之以鼻。随着大街上和华尔街的投资者们涌入比特币市场，人们不禁要问：比特币的繁荣会不会只是一个转瞬即逝的美梦呢？ 比特币飙升的原因 2010年8月，距离比特币标志性的白皮书发布后不到两年，中本聪（该项目未经确认的匿名创造者或多名创造者）提出了一个思想实验。创建人在比特币在线论坛上的一个讨论话题中说，“假设有这样一种基础金属，和黄金一样稀缺。” 中本聪写道，这种假想的金属没有“任何实际或装饰用途。” ，但却拥有“一个特殊、神奇的属性：可以通过传播渠道进行流通。” 当时，中本聪描述了比特币的实体模型，而且他的观点是解决货币的根本悖论：当货币的价值完全取决于其交换中介的功能时，那么作为交换中介，货币本身如何定价？答案很简单：定价基本上是主观的。或许有限的供应和可以随身携带的特性足以赋予中本聪这一神奇的货币市场价值。或许“预见其潜在交换用途”的投机者会押注比特币。这位哲学家开玩笑说，“当然，我也想要一些比特币。” 事实证明，投资者也想要分一杯羹，不过比特币的用途基本上仍停留在理论层面。虽然一些拥趸们曾梦想比特币成为全球首个通用货币，从而代替央行，并取代Visa和万事达卡，但到目前为止，其计算机化的字节最多相当于“数字黄金”。风投公司Sequoia合伙人马特·黄（Matt Huang）表示，它是存放资金（也就是经济学家所说的价值贮藏）的好去处，但对于支付来说还不现实。“用比特币购买咖啡或比萨这一流行的说法在目前来讲就是一个白日梦。” Coinbase前总裁弗莱德·额萨姆（Fred Ehrsam）注意到这一“神奇的互联网货币”在实际中的不同寻常之处。“比特币的价值来自于其他人赋予它的价值。细想之下这是一件很奇怪的事情。”虽然奇怪，但却并非是没有先例：就像我们的经济所打造的绿皮书一样，以及先于比特币存在的黄金白银。比特币之所以有价值，是因为人们的共同决定所造成的。马特还指出，“如果认同比特币有价值的人足够多，那么这个泡沫便可以持续下去。” 为了证明比特币价格的上涨并非是空穴来风，像温克莱沃斯（Winklevoss）兄弟这样的投机商则引用了梅特卡夫法则。该法则称，网络的价值会因为每个额外参与者的参加而大幅提升。泰勒与其兄弟卡梅隆曾起诉哈佛大学校友、Facebook首席执行官扎克伯格偷窃其业务方案，并因此而进入了全美人民的视野。他们在比特币中找到了有利可图的第二个机会。数年前，他们把从Facebook和解得来的6500万美元投入了比特币，据说他们目前已经成为了亿万富翁。泰勒说：“从很多层面上来讲，金钱是最终的社交网络，它是连接着所有人的价值媒介。” 比特币所享有的品牌知名度并不比快速扩张的前辈差，例如搜索领域的谷歌、社交网络领域的Facebook和电子商业领域的亚马逊。耶鲁大学经济学家施乐说：“比特币比其他任何虚拟货币都更有号召力，因为它是第一个吃螃蟹的人。就像哈佛大学被认为是最知名的大学一样，因为它是美国的第一所大学。” 比特币的薪酬待遇很独特，它会为利用计算机支持其网络（同时让比特币更有价值）的挖矿者提供回报。生产商为满足需求加大供应量，会在无意之间造成供应过剩，这时，像玉米、原油或黄金这类商品的价格通常会下跌。相比之下，比特币的供应量按照计算机代码来看永远是固定的，共2100万个（其中已生产了约80%）。稀缺性无疑是价格最有力的推手。 在一些支持者的眼中，这些优势就基本上变成了毫无约束的积极面。网络安全先驱John McAfee最近为比特币设置了一个100万美元的奖金目标（最初为50万美元）。其他人说，比特币的市值可能会逼近黄金——目前为9.7万亿美元——大约相当于46万美元/比特币。 然而，即便是比特币最忠诚的拥趸也承认，如果中国或美国的监管方最终决定取缔比特币，或出现了更好、功能更加丰富的区块链，那么加密货币的价值也有可能一落千丈。此前也有不少前车之鉴。康奈尔大学法学教授罗伯特·赫克特（Robert Hockett）说：“在我看来，比特币就像是高科技豆豆娃或21世纪的郁金香。”他曾在金融危机之后建议城市使用土地征用权购买不良抵押资产，并因此而声名狼藉。在证券监管商警告人们不要用抵押贷款来进行比特币投机之后，他讽刺地说道，“就像是小丑使出了洪荒之力来逗乐一样。” 赫克特认为，区块链技术将成为游戏颠覆者。但是他不理解市场对于比特币的这种痴迷，尤其是比特币还存在不少缺陷。作为最先面世的加密货币，比特币仍受制于第一代技术的一些常见缺点。交易缺乏隐私性，而且费用通常高达20美元，哪怕是小额交易亦是如此。黑客十分猖獗。而且整个网络目前每秒最多只能处理7笔交易，而Visa和万事达在同样的时间里可以处理数千个交易。赫克特说：“就有点像上个世纪90年代仍押注Betamax（索尼的视频录影带技术——译者注）一样，当时，其他的新视频技术已经面世。” 金融分析公司Meraglim首席策略师吉姆·里卡兹（Jim Rickards）对于比特币也有着同样悲观的看法。他说，“我对区块链的未来充满了信心，但是我把比特币看作是穴居人，它已经进入了进化的死胡同。” 濒危物种？ 当英国科学家在18世纪首次看到鸭嘴兽时，他们认为这是一个骗局。这种动物并不符合其传统的生物分类范畴。它看起来像是鼹鼠，但长着鸭子的喙、海狸的尾巴和水獭的脚。此外，它还能分泌毒液并产卵。然而，致力于投资加密货币和相关技术的风投资本公司Blockchain Capital研究负责人斯宾塞·博加特（Spencer Bogart）说：“在经过非常认真的研究之后，他们说‘这是真的！’” 博加特引用了他最喜欢的一个类比：“鸭嘴兽没有爬行动物、海狸、鸭子或水獭的特长，但是它非常适合做鸭嘴兽。比特币并不具有货币、商品或金融技术公司的诸多优点，但它非常适合做比特币。它正在创建自有的门类和资产类别。” 当怀疑论者弃比特币于不顾时，像博加特这样的多头投资者给予了反击。比特币不同于黄金，它不是静止的。软件代码一直在不断地发展。其特征可以得到调整、改进，并以分叉的形式形成新的迭代，后者有潜力以难以想象的方式释放价值。例如，很多比特币的粉丝都对“Lightning Network”抱有很高的期望，后者是一项旨在加快支付速度的改进。如果比特币在进化的过程中吸收了更具吸引力的设施，例如让跨境支付变得便宜快捷，或实现带有业务关系加密、自动付款功能的智能合约，那些持有这一有限货币的投资者将能够找到其他潜在用户，甚至那些财大气粗的公司，都可能会叫嚷着购买比特币。 对于很多人来说，这个原因足以让他们长线持有比特币。大多数早期投资者都是这样做的。那些至少持有比特币长达三年的人，又称HODLers（这个名称源于在线论坛对“hold”的错误拼写），基本上仍持有比特币。数字统计公司Chainalysis向《财富》杂志提供的研究显示，这些人的比特币仅占2017年进入加密货币交易所比特币总量的4%。鉴于比特币流入交易所基本上也就意味着有意销售比特币，这一点说明，大多数人都会将意外之财储藏起来。 当然，人们有很多原因对比特币采取观望的态度，包括其价值在明天可能翻番的事实，以及目前基本上没有什么非投机方式来花费或使用它。例如，财富管理公司富达允许雇员使用比特币在公司食堂来购买午餐，但到目前为止，这个项目一直都是个摆设。毕竟，今天花5美元比特币购买三明治可能到了下个圣诞节就像花100美元购买一样。世事难料。 这里存在一个问题：如果加密货币因波动性过大而难以用于支付，那么它无法成为一种有用的货币。另一方面，如果它某一天稳定下来，并成为了广泛使用的对象，其价格在飙升后将一路平坦，而且它将成为经纪商Martin Garcia所害怕的“无聊投资”。无论是哪一种结果（比特币是否能够充当货币），都将让投机资本撤离比特币，并导致惨痛的崩盘。与此同时，即便是HODLers在这一货币得到广泛使用之前一直会守着比特币不放，但是他们到底愿意等多久？诺瓦格拉茨说，“如果3年变成了10年，市场也将崩溃。”在任何一种情况下，鉴于比特币分散式的特性，监管方（或任何人）没有多少可供使用的杠杆，来为比特币的内部破裂设定一个下限。 然而，大玩家们则认为这些风险都是值得去冒的。泡沫通常会在傻瓜资金追逐精明资本时破灭，但到目前为止，比特币飙升基本上源于散户和小型投资者。虽然人们可以在加密货币交易所以增量的形式购买一部分比特币（低至1美元），但机构投资者因资产监管方面的信托和合规要求，基本上已被禁止参加这些交易。 如今这一现象正在发生变化。像Coinbase和BitGo这样的公司将推出针对重量级投资者的产品，甚至连最沉稳的对冲基金和主权财富管理商都沉不住气了。据悉，高盛正在考虑推出比特币交易业务。（该银行到目前为止唯一与加密货币相关的投资是一家名为Circle的初创企业，后者已在经营交易柜台。）多头投资者称，精明资本的流入可能会使当前比特币中的所有财富黯然失色。理论上，它可以在霎那之间让比特币的市值增幅超过100%。 比特币在回归其正常价值之前会大幅上扬的另一个理由在于：在历史上，一些最空洞的泡沫相对来说有其局限性：17世纪的郁金香泡沫并没有对荷兰以外的地区带来多大的附带损失；互联网的兴起推动了硅谷的崛起，但是国际股市回弹的速度相对更快。然而在眼下，全球任何人都可以购买比特币，包括那些没有银行账户、从未接触资本市场的人群，从阿富汗一直到津巴布韦。诺瓦格拉茨还表示，“事实上，这是首个全球性的狂热，它将让比特币成为我们这个时代最具投机性的泡沫。” 何去何从 诺瓦格拉茨指出，鉴于这些林林总总的原因，“加密货币这个泡沫即使达10万亿也算不上疯狂，而这将超过目前市值的20倍。”他还表示，作为对比，在不计算通胀的情况下，纳斯达克股市市值在互联网泡沫破灭之前达到了6万亿美元。 当然，在互联网泡沫破灭之前和之后，纳斯达克拥有微软、英特尔和其他众多知名的商业巨头。如今，比特币仍是一个没有实际价值的鸭嘴兽。即便是Coinbase首席执行官，比特币热的最大受益者，也对此充满了疑问。布莱恩·阿姆斯通（Brian Armstrong）在最近的全体大会之后向《财富》杂志透露，“我们可能进入了泡沫期”。目前所有加密货币的总市值已远超5000亿美元，但人们鲜有机会在实际中使用这些货币。阿姆斯通担心，“我们自身的价值还达不到0.5万亿美元。”不管怎么样，在他看来，比特币价格的每一次大涨，其市值就会更上一层楼——即便暴跌之后亦是如此。 多头投资商表示，比特币的价格超过其自身价值越多，比特币技术追赶市场期许的动力就越大。Digital Currency Group的德米诺斯（Demirors）说：“目前的这种金融投机趋势……对于基础设施的发展来说异常重要。”比特币的狂热激励着编程人员和商业人士将时间和精力投入比特币相关的项目中。具有远见卓识的狂热分子们正在将新得到财富大量投入到加密货币经济中，打造以区块链为导向的业务，例如温克勒弗斯兄弟的Gemini，或创建加密货币专属的对冲基金，例如纳韦尔·拉维肯特（Naval Ravikant）创建的AngelList。要赚钱的话必需得先花钱。 再者，流入比特币的财富越多，那么其维护者在更新相关技术时就会越发保守。这也将为其他加密货币赶超其前任创造机会。加密货币对冲基金Polychain Capital欧拉夫·卡尔森-维（Olaf Carlson-Wee）说：“从长期来看，我认为比特币的市场份额是下行的，因为行业中有趣的技术层出不穷。”他还表示，“作为一条经验法则，我从来没有看空过加密货币。” 对于Coin Center的杰瑞·布里托（Jerry Brito）来说，比特币的未来并不仅仅在于其提供无限汇报的潜力，同时还因为他看到了希望——自己的女儿将在一个更美好的世界中茁壮成长。他说，“在这个世界中，人们可以保证资金的安全……能够与世界任何人进行交易。”从这一点来看，比特币的诱惑力并非是金钱本身，而是技术。或许这是为什么布里托夫妇最终在为他女儿取名时并没有将金钱因素纳入考虑范围的原因。他们为女儿取名佩妮（Penny），但它是佩内洛普（Penelope）的昵称（并非是“美分”的意思——译者注）。 （财富中文网） 本文将出现在2018年1月1日期《财富》杂志上，标题名为《比特币是否还会升升不息？》 译者：冯丰 审稿：夏林 |
Had Jerry Brito’s daughter waited longer to emerge, she might have been someone else entirely. In November, as Brito paced the hospital for 23 hours while his wife was in the delivery room, he floated an alternative name for the baby: “Ten Thousand.” The founding executive director of the nonprofit Coin Center, Brito had spent years advocating for Bitcoin, arguing that the cryptocurrency, and the technology underpinning it, would dramatically change our economy, reshaping the world into which we’re all born. Now Brito was on the cusp of realizing two long-held dreams. Even as his wife went into labor a few days after Thanksgiving, Bitcoin was taking off as well. Worth $950 at the start of the year, its price breached $9,000 while Brito waited in the maternity ward. This explained why his daughter was taking her time, he began saying: “This baby does not want to be born in a world where Bitcoin is not $10,000.” Alas, the price was only $9,600 when Brito’s daughter arrived early Nov. 27; the parents went with a different name. But Bitcoin broke $10,000 the following night. And in the newborn’s first 10 days on earth, it more than doubled again, grazing $20,000. In all, Bitcoin has seen a roughly 20-fold rise since the beginning of 2017, outshining virtually every conventional investment. For true believers, the soaring rise rewarded a deep-seated faith. “It’s always been kind of obvious to me that this technology is as profoundly revolutionary as the Internet was and is,” Brito says. But Bitcoin’s spike also represented the revolution’s next phase. Less prescient investors, fearing they’d miss the opportunity of a lifetime, had jumped into the currency, spurring a frenzy. “If Bitcoin is successful, the opportunity I have, my son will not have, and definitively, my son’s son will not have,” says Martin Garcia, managing director at Genesis Trading, the only licensed U.S. broker-dealer for Bitcoin. “Once it’s successful, it’s a boring investment—it’s a way to move money around the world.” And “boring” doesn’t earn you 1,800% in a year. Going Mainstream Bitcoin has provoked hysteria before. Over one stretch of 2013, its price surged 85-fold; it crashed the following year after a hack of the exchange Mt. Gox shook the confidence of many early devotees. It wasn’t until 2017, though, that Bitcoin hit a tipping point of mainstream popularity. By November, one of the biggest U.S. Bitcoin exchanges, Coinbase, had signed up some 12 million customers, surpassing the number of accounts at 46-year-old brokerage Charles Schwab . Within weeks, Coinbase’s app became the iPhone’s most downloaded. At press time, Bitcoin, once largely an insurgent’s fantasy, was worth some $300 billion in real money. “We are going through the biggest wealth generation opportunity of the century, and people want to participate,” says Meltem Demirors, director of development at Digital Currency Group. DCG oversees a cryptocurrency portfolio including 1% of the total Bitcoin supply. It also invests in startups working on blockchains, accounting tools that use networks of computers to collectively sustain mutually trusted, shared ledgers of transactions, without relying on any outside institutions as middlemen. The appeal of this tech is stoked by geopolitical unease. Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has fed off the festering distrust in institutions sown by the financial crisis. And as populist sentiment has spread in the West, so has the allure of a decentralized currency outside the grasp of governments and banks. Bitcoin’s price jumped after the U.K.’s Brexit vote in 2016—and again when Donald Trump won the White House. Combine such surges with ransomware attacks demanding payment in Bitcoin and buyers from countries like Venezuela seeking refuge from hyperinflation, and Bitcoin’s significance has penetrated the public consciousness like never before. “You do have people turning to it as that disaster hedge, much as they turn to gold,” says Chris Burniske, cofounder of VC firm Placeholder and coauthor of Cryptoassets, a new investor’s guide. “There’s so much ammunition” feeding this movement, agrees Mike Novogratz, a billionaire former hedge fund manager who now has 30% of his net worth invested in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Every establishment failure reinforces the thesis; after debacles like the Wells Fargo fake-account scandal, he asks, “I’m supposed to trust those f–king banks?” Trust them or not, banks and asset managers are poised to flock to Bitcoin too. “Wall Street has just started to dip their toes in,” says Tyler Winklevoss, CEO and cofounder of Gemini, whose cryptocurrency exchange partnered with a more traditional one, CBOE, on Bitcoin futures contracts in December, offering institutional giants a way to participate. “It’s the bottom of the first inning.” Skeptics see a familiar mix of new-paradigm euphoria and get-rich-quick mania, with an unhappy ending looming. “It seems like the dotcom bubble all over again, or the housing bubble all over again,” cautions Robert Shiller, the Nobel Prize–winning economist who literally wrote the book on the subject. (Shiller, who foresaw those crashes, tells Fortune he’s contemplating a fourth edition of his Irrational Exuberance, updated to include the cryptocurrency craze.) Still, for now the stampede of optimists continues, economists and possible calamity be damned. As investors pile in from Main Street to Wall Street, the question becomes, Is Bitcoin’s rise more than an ephemeral rush? Why Bitcoin Soared In August 2010, nearly two years after conceiving of Bitcoin in a landmark white paper, Satoshi Nakamoto, the project’s pseudonymous, as yet unidentified creator (or creators), proposed a thought experiment. “Imagine there was a base metal as scarce as gold,” the inventor wrote in a thread on an online Bitcoin forum. The imaginary metal would not be “useful for any practical or ornamental purpose,” Nakamoto wrote, but would have “one special, magical property: [It] can be transported over a communications channel.” Nakamoto was describing a physical analog to Bitcoin, and his point was to address a fundamental paradox of money: How does money get valued as a medium of exchange when its value lies solely in being a medium of exchange? The simple answer: It’s mostly subjective. Perhaps limited supply and instantaneous portability would be enough to justify a market value for Nakamoto’s magic substance. Maybe speculators, “foreseeing its potential usefulness for exchange,” would bet on the stuff. “I would definitely want some,” the philosopher teased. Investors, it turns out, wanted some too—even though Bitcoin’s usefulness remains largely theoretical. While some advocates dream of Bitcoin becoming the first universal currency, supplanting central banks and replacing Visa and Mastercard, so far its computerized bits are, at best, equivalent to “digital gold.” They’re good as a place to park money—what economists call a “store of value”—but impractical for payments, says Matt Huang, a partner at VC firm Sequoia. “The popular narrative around using Bitcoin to buy coffee or pizza is a pipe dream at this point.” Fred Ehrsam, ex-president of Coinbase, notes how unusual this “magical Internet money” is in practice. “The thing that gives it value is other people giving it value, which is a strange thing to wrap one’s mind around.” Strange, but hardly unprecedented: Like the green paper our economy is built on—and the gold and silver that predate it—Bitcoin is valuable because we collectively decide it is. “And if enough people agree,” adds Huang, “then the bubble can just persist.” To justify Bitcoin’s tremendous rise, bulls like the Winklevoss twins point to Metcalfe’s Law, which states that a network’s value increases exponentially with each additional participant. Tyler, along with his brother Cameron, entered the national spotlight after suing Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, their Harvard schoolmate, for allegedly stealing their business plan. In Bitcoin they’ve found a lucrative second act. Having invested a portion of their $65 million Facebook settlement in the cryptocurrency some years ago, the twins are said to have recently become billionaires. “Money is in many ways the ultimate social network,” Tyler says. “It’s a medium of value that connects us all.” Bitcoin also enjoys the brand recognition shared by innovators that arrive early and dominate fast, like Google in search, Facebook in social networking, and Amazon in e-commerce. “Bitcoin is more contagious than all the other cryptocurrencies because it’s the first mover,” Yale economist Shiller says. “Just like Harvard is considered the most prestigious university because it was the first one” in the U.S. Bitcoin’s uniquely set payout rate—which rewards “miners” for supporting the network with their computers—also helps make it more valuable. Prices of commodities like corn, oil, or gold often plunge when producers pump out supply to meet demand, creating inadvertent gluts. Bitcoin’s supply, in contrast, is forever fixed, by computer code, at a total of 21 million coins (of which about 80% have been produced). And nothing drives prices up like scarcity. In the eyes of some supporters, these advantages add up to virtually unconstrained upside. Cybersecurity pioneer John McAfee recently set a $1 million price target for Bitcoin by 2020 (revised upward from $500,000). Others say the market value could match gold’s, which clocks in at $9.7 trillion—roughly $460,000 per coin. Still, even Bitcoin’s greatest backers acknowledge the possibility that the cryptocurrency’s value could plummet—if, say, regulators in China or the U.S. decided to effectively outlaw it, or if a better and more functional blockchain superseded it. It would hardly be the first craze that fizzled fast. “I think of these as high-tech Beanie Babies or 21st-century tulips,” says Robert Hockett, a law professor at Cornell who gained notoriety after the financial crisis for proposing that cities use “eminent domain” to buy out underwater mortgages. Hockett sees echoes of that disaster in Bitcoin-mania. After a securities regulator warned that people were taking out mortgage loans to speculate on Bitcoin, he noted the irony: “It’s almost as though the cosmic joker out there is pulling our legs as maximally as possible.” Hockett believes blockchain tech will prove a game-changer. But he can’t understand the fascination with Bitcoin, given its copious flaws. As the original cryptocurrency, Bitcoin suffers from drawbacks typical of first-generation technology. Transactions lack privacy, and fees commonly run as high as $20, even for transfers of small sums. Hackers run rampant. And the entire network can currently handle, at most, only seven transactions per second, compared to the thousands that Visa and Mastercard process in the same span. “It’s a bit like betting only on Betamax when new video technology was coming online in the 1980s,” Hockett says. Jim Rickards, chief strategist at Meraglim, a financial analytics firm, views Bitcoin with equal fatalism. “I’m extremely bullish on the future” of blockchains, he says, “but I view Bitcoin as a Neanderthal, an evolutionary dead end.” An Endangered Species? When British scientists first encountered the platypus in the late 18th century, they suspected a hoax. The animal didn’t fit in their conventional taxonomic categories. It looked like a mole, but it had a duck’s bill, a beaver’s tail, and an otter’s feet. Plus, it was venomous and laid eggs. Still, “after really careful examination, they said, ‘This is real!’ ” says Spencer Bogart, head of research at Blockchain Capital, a venture capital firm devoted to cryptocurrencies and related tech. Bogart is deploying a favorite analogy: “Just like the platypus is not good at being a reptile, a beaver, a duck, or an otter, but it’s great at being a platypus; Bitcoin is not good at being a currency, a commodity, or a fintech company, but it’s great at being Bitcoin. It’s creating its own category and asset class.” When skeptics dismiss Bitcoin, bulls like Bogart push back. Unlike gold, Bitcoin is not static. The software code is under constant development. Its features can be tweaked, improved, and “forked” into new iterations, with the potential to unlock value in as yet unimagined ways. Many Bitcoin fans, for example, have high hopes for the “Lightning Network,” an improvement designed to facilitate quicker payments. If Bitcoin, in its evolution, acquires more compelling utility—making cross-border payments cheap and fast, for example, or enabling “smart” contracts that encode business relationships and automatically disburse payments—those who own stakes in the finite currency could find other would-be users, possibly even deep-pocketed corporations, clamoring to buy from them. For many, this is reason enough to play the long game. Most of the earliest investors seem to be doing just that. People who have held Bitcoin for at least three years—so-called HODLers, a name that stems from a typo for “hold” in an online forum—are largely still HODLing. Their Bitcoins accounted for only 4% of the Bitcoins moved in 2017 to cryptocurrency exchanges, according to research provided to Fortune by Chainalysis, a digital forensics firm. Since moving to an exchange is a rough proxy for an intention to sell, this suggests the vast majority are keeping their windfall in reserve. There are many reasons, of course, to take the wait-and-see approach with Bitcoin—from the fact that it could be worth double tomorrow, to the reality that there are currently few nonspeculative ways to actually spend or use it. The wealth management giant Fidelity, for one, allows employees to buy lunch with Bitcoin in the company cafeteria, but so far the program has been a dud. After all, paying $5 in Bitcoin for a sandwich today could be like paying $100 next Christmas. No one knows. Therein lies a problem: If a cryptocurrency is too volatile to spend, it can’t be a useful currency. On the other hand, if it did someday stabilize and become widely used, its soaring prices would flatten out; it’ll be the “boring investment” that broker Martin Garcia fears. Either outcome—proof that Bitcoin can’t work as a currency, or proof that it can—could suck speculative money out of Bitcoin and precipitate a painful crash. Meanwhile, if the HODLers are sitting on Bitcoins until the currency achieves widespread functionality, just how long will they be willing to wait? “If three years becomes 10 years, the market will collapse,” says investor Novogratz. And in any of these scenarios, Bitcoin’s decentralized nature means there are few if any levers regulators (or anyone else) can pull to put a floor under a Bitcoin implosion. Still, big players have decided these are risks well worth taking. Bubbles usually pop after the “dumb money” chases the smart money, but until now, it has mostly been individuals and small investors who have driven the Bitcoin phenomenon. While people can buy fractions of Bitcoin in increments of as little as $1 on cryptocurrency exchanges, institutional investors have largely been barred from those venues owing to fiduciary and compliance requirements around custody of assets. Now that’s starting to change. Companies like Coinbase and BitGo are rolling out products catering to heavyweight investors, as even the most staid hedge funds and sovereign wealth managers come knocking. Goldman Sachs is said to be considering launching a Bitcoin trading operation. (The bank’s sole cryptocurrency-related investment to date, a startup called Circle, already operates a trading desk.) According to the bulls, the influx of smart money could eclipse all the wealth currently invested in Bitcoin—theoretically more than doubling the market value in one fell swoop. And there’s another reason to believe Bitcoin can go up a lot more before gravity drags its value back down to something stable. Historically, some of the frothiest bubbles have been relatively confined: the 17th-century Dutch tulip bubble left little collateral damage beyond the Netherlands; the dotcom boom blew up Silicon Valley, but international stock markets rebounded relatively quickly. Today, however, anyone in the world can buy Bitcoin—including unbanked peoples ranging from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe who have never had access to capital markets before. “The fact that this is our first global mania,” adds Novogratz, “will make this the single most speculative bubble of our lifetimes.” What’s Next For those reasons and more, says Novogratz, “it wouldn’t be crazy if the crypto bubble hit $10 trillion, and that’s 20 times more than what it is today.” By comparison, he adds, Nasdaq stocks hit a market value of more than $6 trillion before the dotcom bubble burst, not accounting for inflation. Of course, the Nasdaq included Microsoft , Intel , and many other companies that were established business powerhouses, before and after the crash. Bitcoin, for now, remains a platypus of unproven worth. Even the CEO of Coinbase, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the mania, harbors concerns about it. “We probably are in a bubble,” Brian Armstrong confides to Fortune following a recent all-hands meeting. With the total market valuation of all cryptocurrencies well above $500 billion, and few opportunities to put these coins to real use, Armstrong worries that “we haven’t really earned the value of that half trillion.” Nonetheless, in his experience, each time Bitcoin’s price has surged, the valuation has leveled off at a higher plateau—even after crashes. The more Bitcoin’s price runs ahead of its capabilities, bulls say, the more likely that its technology may catch up to the hype. “The financial speculation that’s going on … is so important to developing infrastructure,” says Demirors of the Digital Currency Group. The gusher incentivizes programmers and businesspeople to dedicate time and effort to Bitcoin-related projects. Already, farsighted zealots are pouring newfound riches into the cryptocurrency economy, creating blockchain-oriented businesses, like the Winklevoss twins’ Gemini, or starting cryptocurrency-specific hedge funds, as AngelList founder Naval Ravikant is doing. It takes money to make money. Then again, the more wealth that flows into Bitcoin, the more conservative an approach its maintainers may take in updating it. This could present an opportunity for other crypto coins to outmaneuver their forerunner. “I think Bitcoin’s market share is a long-term downward trend because there are so many other interesting technologies being created,” says Olaf Carlson-Wee, founder of crypto hedge fund Polychain Capital. He adds: “As a rule of thumb, I never bet against cryptocurrencies.” To Jerry Brito of Coin Center, the future of Bitcoin isn’t about just the potential for limitless returns, but the promise that his daughter will grow up in a better world. “It’s a world where you can keep your money safe … where you can trade with anybody else in the world,” he says. Bitcoin’s allure, in this view, is not about the money, per se, but about technology. Maybe that’s why Brito insists there’s no fiscal significance in the name he and his wife eventually chose for the baby. They call her Penny—but it’s short for Penelope. A version of this article appears in the Jan. 1, 2018 issue of Fortune with the headline “How High Will Bitcoin Go?” |
