新创企业和股票，哪一个更值得投资？

投资支持团体Tiger 21拥有大约580名会员，其中大部分都是已经卖掉了自己公司的企业家。他们会定期见面，对各自的投资策略提供建议和反馈。团体的创始人迈克尔·索内菲尔特表示，面对市场中越来越多的未知情况，会员的应对手段是把更多资金转移到他们能够帮助取得成功——即对结果有一定控制能力的资产那里。

当然，最近几年来，股票和债券的投资环境都很友好。不过随着美联储（Federal Reserve）决定上调利率，在牛市接近九周年之际，股票估值开始急剧增长，再加上人们对国家安全的担忧开始加剧，许多观察家越来越倾向于认为股市会出现回落。【不久前，在《财富》的年度投资圆桌会议上，专家们对这些担忧进行了详细讨论。】

面对未知情况，许多投资者的做法是转移资产，保护投资组合免受市场低迷的冲击。转向防御的策略往往意味着投资与股票或债券无关的资产，无论那是黄金、比特币还是房地产，或是你亲戚的最新发明。当然，这些资产本身也有风险，把大部分钱放到里面也是风险很大的豪赌。不过希望在于，你的防御性资产可以获得一些回报，假如你剩下的投资表现挣扎，投资组合整体上也不至于亏本。

投资私人公司

对Tiger 21的许多企业家来说，（广义上的）私人股本让他们有机会减少股票或债券的冲击。索内菲尔特表示，过去十年来，这些商界富豪“资产配置的最大转变”就是更倾向于私人股本，对这类资产投资的平均比重从之前的10%提高到了如今的21%。

私人股本可能意味着以天使投资人或风险投资人的身份在某家有潜力的新公司参股。如果投资足够多，你还可以加入公司的董事会，尤其是如果公司还处在发展早期的话（对于拥有创业经验的人来说，这是个很有吸引力的前景）。Tiger 21的另一些投资者则通过私人股本公司的融资把钱投了进去，而他们对于投资的日常关注就少了很多。

通过投资某家个人公司或少部分公司，你从市场中抽身而出，选择了那些你认为无论宏观市场表现如何，它们的特质都可以让你作为投资者获利的公司。这样的话，你把一种风险转化为了另一种——你的财富更多地绑定在了相对较少的资产上。

现金和房地产的诱惑

当然，在焦虑的时代，最没有风险的资产之一就是现金。Tiger 21的会员平均有11%的资产是现金。为许多Tiger会员服务的财富管理公司Claraphi Advisory Network的首席执行官瓦利·纳斯尔表示，他的很多客户持有的现金占到了资产的25%到30%。对大部分投资者而言，这个比例太高了，不过纳斯尔的客户通常都接近退休，净资产至少有200万美元，他们承担不了在退休之前投资大亏的风险。

纳斯尔认为，出于保险的考虑，现金“比起债券或其他手段，如今是一个好得多的选择”。对于长期债券而言，这点尤其正确，因为利率提高也会挤压价格。囤积现金的风险在于，你得自己把握时机——而你很难预测何时应该把这笔钱重新投回股票或债券。而随着时间的推移，显然，现金的价值会被通货膨胀侵蚀。

纳斯尔认为房地产也是一种与整体市场关联不大的资产。2008年的金融危机和股市跳水，与房地产的崩溃不谋而合，但从历史上看，这样的关联只是一次特殊情况，而非惯例。

对冲基金是另一个选择，不过它们的费用很高，许多交易型开放式指数基金的衍生品也是一样，它们尚未证明自己的价值。不过，尽管对冲基金在股市强劲时表现不佳，但一些基金，尤其是那些着重于管理期货的基金，在金融危机期间的表现却优于市场平均水平。

这些都是抵御股市风险的平衡做法。长期来看，防御策略的意思就是判断哪些风险你可以承担，哪些则是你无法承受的。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

The investing support group Tiger 21 has about 580 members, most of them entrepreneurs who have sold their businesses. They meet regularly to provide advice and peer feedback on each other’s investment strategies. Michael Sonnenfeldt, creator of the group, says that lately, his members are dealing with growing unknowns in the market by moving more of their funds into assets where they can help shape success—and have some control over the outcome.

The stock and bond investing climates, of course, have been friendly for several years running. But with the Federal Reserve committed to increasing interest rates, stock valuations sharply elevated as the bull run approaches its 9th birthday, and national security concerns rising, there’s a growing belief among many observers that we’re due for a pullback. (Experts recently discussed these concerns at length while sitting at Fortune’s annual investment roundtable.)

Many investors are reacting to the unknowns by moving their assets to protect their portfolios against a market downturn. Looking for a defensive strategy usually means increasing exposure to an asset class that isn’t correlated with stocks or bonds—whether it’s gold, or Bitcoin, or real estate, or your brother-in-law’s latest invention. Each of these assets is risky in its own right, of course—and to put most or all of your money in any one would be a very edgy bet. But the hope is that your defensive assets will register some gains and keep your portfolio afloat if and when the rest of your holdings struggle.

Taking it private

For many entrepreneurs within Tiger 21’s network, private equity (broadly defined) provides the opportunity to decrease exposure to stocks or bonds. Over the past decade, “the single largest asset allocation shift” of these wealthy business people has been into private equity, says Sonnenfeldt, with the average allocation to that category growing from 10% to 21% today.

Private equity can mean taking a stake in a new, promising firm as an angel investor or venture capitalist. It can also include purchasing an established but struggling enterprise that you and a group of investors believe can be revived. A big enough investment could put you on the board of directors of the individual company, particularly if it’s in an early stage of development (an appealing prospect to someone with entrepreneurial expertise). Other Tiger 21 investors pool their money in funds raised by private equity firms; that structure limits their input, but decreases the amount of day-to-day attention they need to give the investment.

By betting on an individual company or on selective small pools of companies, you’re moving away from the market, choosing firms that you believe have unique characteristics that could benefit you as an investor no matter what happens on a macro level. So you’ve swapped one kind of risk for another kind—the exposure that comes with having more of your wealth tied up in relatively few assets.

The allure of cash and real estate

Of course, one of the only truly risk-free assets in anxious times is cash. Tiger 21’s clients on average have about 11% of their assets in cash. Vali Nasr, CEO of wealth manager Claraphi Advisory Network, which serves many Tiger members, says many of his clients have a 25% to 30% stake in cash. That’s high for most investors, but Nasr’s typical clients are nearing retirement with at least $2 million in net worth—and can’t risk taking a large hit to their portfolio right before stepping away from the job.

Nasr views cash as a “much better alternative these days than being in bonds or other instruments” for defensive purposes. That’s especially true with regard to long-term bonds, where rising interest rates could squeeze prices. The risk of hoarding cash: It gets you into market-timing territory—since it’s hard to predict when it might be a good time to plow that money back into stocks or bonds. And over time, of course, the value of cash gets eaten alive by inflation.

Nasr also sees real estate as an asset class that has little correlation to the overall market. The 2008 financial crisis and stock market plunge coincided with a real estate crash, but historically such correlation has been the exception rather than the rule.

Hedge funds are another option, but they come with high fees, as do some of their ETF offshoots, which have yet to prove their worth. Still, while hedge funds generally don’t do well when the stock market is strong, some funds, particularly ones that focus on managed futures, did outperform the market during the financial crisis.

Such is the balancing act of trying to defend against the stock market’s risks. In the long run, playing defense is about deciding which risks you can live with, and which ones you can’t.