下半年该怎么投资？全球最大基金告诉你

今年以来，美股跌宕起伏，颠得人直反胃，很大程度上要归因于中美两国之间的贸易冲突（更别说美国和众多合作伙伴之间的冲突了）。另一方面，加息扰乱了债市，让情况雪上加霜，甚至可能因此终结全球经济增长的盛大狂欢。

如果这些行情已经让你夜不能寐，那再听听贝莱德集团（BlackRock）首席全球投资战略师理查德·特尼尔的温馨提示吧：“这标志着市场要回归常态了。”他告诉《财富》杂志，“去年全球增势强劲、鲜有波动，那才不正常。”

好消息是，即使“常态”意味着不确定性和整体风险更高，投资者仍可以看好今年年底前的行情。这是贝莱德多位高级战略师在编写《全球投资中期展望》时得出的结论。感谢贝莱德的分享，这份报告在本周一已经发布。

贝莱德是全球最大的资产管理机构，掌管6.3万亿美元的客户资产。该公司不仅提供全球最大的被动操作式交易型开放指数基金（ETF），主动管理的资产价值也达近1.7万亿美元，其投资团队对资金的部署运作甚至会引发全球市场海啸。

贝莱德对个人投资者的建议可以归结为：不要因为新闻头条恐慌，不要放弃股市，但要调整投资方案，增加方案弹性，应对未来几个月可能出现的波动加剧。

两大风险：贸易冲突、收益率增高

股市去年一路高涨，今年却行情惨淡：截至7月6日，标普500上升仅2.4%，MSCI全球指数下跌1.2%，和1月峰值相比，两大指数分别下跌4%和7.3%。

贝莱德的首席股权战略师凯特·摩尔认为贸易冲突是市场疲软的主因。摩尔称：“如果公司管理层失去了信心，或者认为公司的全球供应链会因为贸易冲突加剧受到冲击，他们就会减少投资。”这种做法转而又会影响公司营收，削弱股票投资者的信心。

还有一个原因不太明显却同样十分重要。感谢政府尤其是美国财政部提高了政府债券的收益率，股市因此还要和国债争宠。金融危机以来，政府债券收益率长期维持超低水平，投资者更愿意选择炒股，因为对比起来债券收益实在太低。

但是现在“这些几乎零风险的投资也能产生2.3%至3%的收益，确实对高风险证券产生了有力威胁”，贝莱德的首席多元资产战略师伊莎贝拉·玛蒂尔西·拉果说，“投资者现在要求股票能提供高风险溢价”。换言之，如果股票上涨前景堪忧，他们很可能会退出股市，如果再出现新闻论调悲观、通胀风险加速的情况，形势会更加不容乐观。

美股：看上去仍然很美

然而，贝莱德团队认为许多股票——尤其是美国公司股票——形势良好，不惧任何风浪。特尼尔说，在2017年美国减税举措的激励下，许多公司增加了资本开支，主要用于加大研发、提升技术、购买设备。这对他们日后提升生产力、加快增速大有裨益，投资者因此更可能对他们不离不弃。

但也不能把所有的美国股票一概而论。特尼尔和摩尔认为，持有收支平衡、营收增势良好的股票才是明智之选，同时要注意避开有大量高利债的公司，而很多公司在利率低的时候都曾举债来收购公司、派发分红。

基于上述原则，贝莱德团队更青睐科技公司，虽然科技公司的股价有时会因为贸易冲突加剧出现波动。但摩尔认为，许多科技公司拥有“堡垒似的资产负债表”，“拥有大量现金、负债低、增势猛”。她还说，更重要的是，科技公司会因为其他公司增加资本性支出而受益，因为“大部分公司都把钱花在了提高技术水平上”。

贝莱德团队对欧洲股票表态谨慎，因为德国和意大利在移民问题上的不同意见可能会对经济造成影响。“我们认为欧洲的资产价格尚未充分体现目前地缘政治中的风险因素。”特尼尔说。但亚洲和其他新兴市场的股票看起来仍颇具吸引力：即使一些股票因为贸易冲突出现下跌，但大部分“增长和营收预期良好”，摩尔表示。

买债券要挑剔

通胀可能性增加、美联储和其它国家央行加息，造成了贝莱德所说的“市场改朝换代”，许多投资者因此远离高风险资产。这一变化对债券市场影响尤大，因为某些债券的价格更容易受到加息的影响。结果导致长期资产（比如十年期的国库券）和低质量信贷资产（比如垃圾债券）风险更高、吸引力更低。

贝莱德认为债券投资者应该关注两年左右的短期债券，它们的价格不易受到利率影响。玛蒂尔西·拉果建议投资“高质量高流动性”的产品。简而言之，要关注包括国库券和投资级的公司债券在内的高评级债券，它们的“流动性”更高，更容易出手。

玛蒂尔西·拉果认为新兴市场债务十分诱人，能产生更高回报。但她也提醒道，最好投资使用强势货币而非本国货币报价的债务（用美元或其他广泛使用的全球性货币计价），因为如果使用本国货币，可能会因为汇率下跌快速贬值。（财富中文网）

译者：Agatha 

American stocks have spent the year riding nausea-inducing swells and dips, thanks in no small part to trade conflicts between the U.S. and China (not to mention between between the U.S. and countless other partners). Making matters worse, rising interest rates are upsetting the bond market and threatening to end the global economic growth party.

If market trends like these have filled your nights with dread, Richard Turnill, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock, has a reminder for you. “This is a return to normal,” he tells Fortune. “Last year, when we had strong global growth and very little volatility, that was the anomaly.”

The good news: Even if “normal” means more uncertainty and greater overall risk, investors have a lot to look forward to between now and the end of 2018. That’s the conclusion that BlackRock senior strategists reached in their Midyear Global Investment Outlook, which BlackRock shared with Fortune in advance of its publication on Monday.

BlackRock is the world’s biggest asset manager, overseeing $6.3 trillion in client wealth. It’s the planet’s largest provider of passive exchange-traded-funds, but it also has nearly $1.7 trillion under active management, and the choices the company’s investment teams make about where to deploy that money can send seismic waves through global markets.

For individual investors, BlackRock’s advice boils down to: Don’t panic over headlines, and don’t give up on stocks, but do take some steps to make your portfolio more resilient in case markets get choppier in the coming months.

Two big threats: trade tension and rising rates

After soaring last year, stocks have disappointed investors so far in 2018: For the year to date through July 6, the S&P 500 is up just 2.4%, while the MSCI All Country World Index is down 1.2%. Since their respective peaks in January, those two indexes are down 4% and 7.3%, respectively.

Kate Moore, Blackrock’s chief equity strategist, says trade tensions have played a major role in muting the markets. “If company management teams lose their confidence,” Moore says, “or feel like their global supply chain is going to be hit by greater trade conflict, they may pull back on their investment.” That, in turn, hurts earnings and weakens stock investors’ confidence.

A less widely noticed, but equally important issue is that stocks now have more competition for investors’ attention, thanks to rising rates on government bonds, especially U.S. Treasuries. With rates ultra-low for most of the years since the financial crisis, investors tended to choose stocks in part because bond returns looked so low by comparison.

But now, “nearly risk-free assets yielding 2.5% to 3% create serious competition for riskier securities,” explains Isabelle Mateos y Lago, BlackRock’s chief multi-asset strategist. “Investors now demand a higher risk premium” for stocks. That means they’re more likely to pull money out of stocks that don’t have great growth prospects, especially when headlines are grim or signs of faster inflation loom.

America is still beautiful for stocks

Still, according to the BlackRock team, many stocks—especially those of U.S. companies—are in good shape to weather any choppiness ahead. Turnill says that the 2017 U.S. tax cuts have prompted many American companies to boost their “capex”—basically, investments in research, technology and equipment. That sets them up for greater productivity and faster growth down the line, and leaves investors more inclined to stick with them.

Not all U.S. stocks are created equal, however. Turnill and Moore argue that it’s wise to stick with stocks that have strong balance sheets and good prospects for earnings growth—while avoiding companies that have taken on high levels of higher-interest debt, as many did during the low-rate era to fund acquisitions or dividend payouts.

That philosophy steers the BlackRock team toward tech, even though tech stock prices have occasionally wobbled when trade tensions have risen. Moore says many tech companies have “fortress balance sheets” with “high levels of cash, low levels of leverage [and] strong earnings growth.” What’s more, she notes, they’re benefiting from other companies’ capex growth, since “more companies are spending on technology across all sectors.”

The BlackRock team is more cautious about stocks in Europe, where tensions over immigration and Germany and Italy could become economically disruptive. “We think European asset prices don’t yet reflect those geopolitical risks,” says Turnill. Stocks in Asia and other emerging markets, however, look attractive: Even though the prices of some have taken a beating due to tension over trade, many “offer both good growth prospects and good income potential,” says Moore.

Get choosy with bonds

The growing possibility of higher inflation, and moves by the Fed and other central banks to raise rates, have created what BlackRock calls a “market regime change” that nudges investors away from riskier assets. That change has a particularly strong impact in the bond market, where prices of certain bonds are more likely to be hurt by rising rates. The upshot: Longer-duration assets (say, a 10-year Treasury, as opposed to a two-year one) and lower-credit-quality assets (like junk bonds) start to look riskier and less attractive.

Blackrock argues that bond investors should focus on owning bonds of shorter duration, of around two years; their prices are less likely to be affected by rate fluctuations. Mateos y Lago also suggests adopting “an up-in-quality, up-in-liquidity bias.” In short, focus on higher-rated bonds, including Treasuries and investment-grade corporate bonds, in part because they’re more “liquid,” or easier to sell.

Emerging-market debt looks attractive, Mateos y Lago notes, because it tends to pay higher yields. Her caveat: It’s better to invest in debt that’s quoted in hard currency (that is, denminated in dollars or another widely used global currency), rather than in local-currency debt—because local-currency debt can lose value quickly if the issuing country’s currency slips in relation to the dollar.