比特币“鲸鱼”会毁了市场吗？

在比特币领域，神秘的“鲸鱼”，也就是那些大量持有比特币的人，长期以来一直是投机和焦虑的源泉。现在，有人对这些“比特币鲸鱼”的身份及其对市场的影响展开了新的研究。

加密货币数据公司Chainalysis的研究考察了32只最大的“比特币鲸鱼”，他们持有的比特币略高于100万枚，而迄今为止开采出来的比特币总量约1700万枚。其中，最小的一只“鲸鱼”握有约1.2万枚比特币，最大的持有量超过8.5万枚。按现价计算，二者所持比特币的价值分别为7500万美元和5.41亿美元。

Chainalysis将这32只“比特币鲸鱼”分为四类，其中包括三只“犯罪鲸”。他们在几年前发家致富，当时比特币最为人知的作用是在互联网上进行非法交易。Chainalysis怀疑其中一只“犯罪鲸”目前正在坐牢。

在投资者中，最吸引人的一类可能是九只“交易鲸”，他们在2017年进入比特币市场，此后一直活跃地进行买卖。据Chainalysis的经济学家吉姆·格劳尔介绍，和流行观点相反，这些“交易鲸”在比特币价格下跌时通常都会买入，而不是卖出，而且没有证据表明他们在协同行动。

这否定了许多比特币观察人士的猜测，即这些藏在暗处的“比特币鲸鱼”操纵着比特币的价格。有三只“交易鲸”只在亚洲交易所买卖比特币，Chainalysis关于“交易鲸”的发现也凸显出他们的数量较为稀少。格劳尔说，许多出现在互联网“土豪榜”上的比特币钱包带动业余人士大肆投机，但它们根本是不“比特币鲸鱼”。相反，这些钱包是交易所及其他商业机构在日常金融操作中存放比特币的地方。

另外两类“比特币鲸鱼”在市场的曝光度和“交易鲸”不同。“矿工鲸”是在比特币还很容易开采而且开采成本较低时囤积大量比特币的个人（只是有些“矿工鲸”可能通过采矿以外的手段获得了比特币）。Chainalysis说他们也会出售了一部分比特币，但这种情况很少见，这类“鲸鱼”倾向于长期持有（比特币界把持有的英文拼写为“HODL”）。

另外五只“失踪鲸”是在早期囤积了大量比特币的人，但由于他们的比特币钱包没有任何动作，这几位可能已经过世或者弄丢了自己的钱包钥匙。去年《财富》杂志曾报道，Chainalysis通过研究称近400万枚比特币已永久性丢失，而比特币的供应上限为2100万枚。为了在本次研究中找出这些“比特币鲸鱼”，Chainalysis并没有只盯住拥有大量比特币的钱包。该公司用它称为“co-spend”分析的方法来考察公开的比特币区块链账本，从而找到了一系列看来属于同一ID的钱包。

格劳尔表示，Chainalysis的“比特币鲸鱼”研究设定了一些重要的前提条件。比如一些拥有多个钱包的“鲸鱼”或许很狡猾，可以避开该公司的“co-spend”检索。

最关键的前提是此项研究完全没有考虑最大的那只“比特币鲸鱼”——中本聪，也就是一直隐姓埋名的比特币创始人。中本聪的比特币分散在许多钱包中，总量超过100万枚。Chainalysis假定这些比特币再也找不回来了。

此项研究得出了怎样的结论呢？那就是“比特币鲸鱼”在市场中的作用也许被夸大了。这32只“比特币鲸鱼”控制着大约6%的比特币供应量，如果考虑那些丢失的比特币，这个数字则会降至4.6%。更重要的是，他们的钱包中只有一小部分经常参与市场交易，而且在买卖比特币时，这些钱包的行为看来是在支持比特币的长期价值。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

In the world of Bitcoin, mysterious “whales”—individuals who own large hoards of the digital currency—have long been a source of speculation and anxiety. Now, new research sheds light on the identity of the whales and their impact on the market.

A study by the crypto forensics firm Chainalysis examined the 32 biggest whales, who together hold a little more than 1 million of the approximately 17 million Bitcoins mined to date. The smallest whale in the sample holds around 12,000 Bitcoins while the biggest holds more than 85,000 Bitcoins—respectively worth $75 million and $541 million at recent prices.

As the chart above shows, the firm classified the 32 whales into four categories. These include three “criminal whales” who made their fortune years ago when Bitcoin was best known as a currency to conduct illegal transactions on the Internet. Chainalysis suspects that one of these whales is currently in prison.

For investors, though, the most intriguing category will likely be the nine “trader whales” who entered the Bitcoin market in 2017, and who have been actively buying and selling. According to Chainalysis economist Kim Grauer, contrary to popular perception, the trader whales have typically been buyers not sellers when Bitcoin’s price dips and there is no evidence of them acting in concert.

This undercuts the suspicion of many Bitcoin watchers that shadowy whales are manipulating prices. The Chainalysis findings about the trader whales, three of which only trade on Asian exchanges, also highlights how there are relatively few of them. Grauer says that many Bitcoin wallets that appear on Internet “rich lists,” and are the source of intense speculation by amateurs, are not whales at all. Instead, they are balances held by exchanges and other commercial institutions in the course of their day-to-day financial operations.

The other two whale categories do not have the same presence on the market as the trader whales. The “miner whales” are individuals who amassed large quantities of Bitcoin at a time when it was easy and inexpensive to mine (though some may have received it by means other than mining). Chainalysis says they sell portions of their stash but only rarely and this group is inclined to hold (“HODL” in Bitcoin parlance) it for the long term.

The five “lost whales” are individuals who amassed large quantities of Bitcoin in the early days but, based on a total lack of wallet activity, have likely died or lost the key to their wallets. As Fortune reported last year, a study by Chainalysis concluded that nearly 4 million Bitcoins, of a total supply that will one day equal 21 million, are lost forever.

To identify the whales in its study, Chainalysis did not simply look at wallets holding large amounts of Bitcoin. Instead, the company applied what it calls a “co-spend” analysis to Bitcoin’s public blockchain ledger, which let it identify clusters of wallets that appear to belong to the same individual.

Chainalysis’s whale study comes with some important provisos, says Grauer. This includes the possibility of some whales with multiple wallets being sneaky enough to avoid the company’s co-spend detection.

The most significant proviso is that the study doesn’t include the biggest whale of all: Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous founder of Bitcoin. Satoshi’s fortune, scattered across many wallets, amounts to more than a million Bitcoins, which Chainalysis presumes to be lost forever.

The bottom line? The role of whales in the Bitcoin market may be overstated. The top 32 whales control around 6% of the supply, but that figure drops to 4.6% when lost Bitcoins are taken into account. More importantly, only a minority of these whales are regularly active in the market and, when they are, they appear to behave in ways that supports the long-term value of Bitcoin.