2018年加密货币大崩盘，将面临最糟一周

上周五，比特币一路跌向4,000美元，其它加密货币大多同样遭遇大跌，导致彭博银河加密货币指数（Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index）11月16日以来的周跌幅扩大至23％。这是1月初加密货币狂热达到顶峰以来下跌最严重的一周。

加密货币去年史诗般的反弹超越了史上许多臭名昭著的投资泡沫，之后加密货币市场一路溃败，蒸发近7000亿美元，而且尚未看到减弱迹象。引发2018年暴跌的原因包括市场对监管审查加强、社区内斗、交易混乱等种种问题的担忧，这种情绪在上周进一步加剧了。虽然大部分虚拟货币亏损已超70%，奥安达公司（Oanda Corp.）的史蒂芬·英尼斯认为，还没有看到明显的指标表明市场已经触底。

“还有很多人没有离场，”位于新加坡的奥安达亚太区交易主管英尼斯在电话中说。如果比特币“崩盘了，如果我们开始看到比特币价格朝着3000美元跌去，人们就会像看到怪兽一样，争相逃离。”

伊恩斯表示，他的基本判断是短期内比特币交易价格将位于3,500美元至6,500美元之间，1月份可能跌至2,500美元。

根据彭博综合报价，全球最大的加密货币比特币在上周五的最大跌幅高达7.6％，纽约时间早上6点36分亏损减小至3.2％。当天交易价格为4,285美元，几乎是2017年10月以来的最低收盘价。以太币、瑞波币、莱特币等其它加密货币均下跌至少4％。CoinMarketCap.com进行追踪的所有加密货币的市值已从1月高峰时期的8,350亿美元左右跌至1400亿美元。

这场大溃败中，最大的受害者是在价格顶峰时涌入市场的个人投资者，以及英伟达（Nvidia Corp.）等加密生态系统的供应商。这家总部位于加州的芯片制造商自10月初以来亏损已达将近一半，原因是市场对加密货币采矿芯片的需求暴跌，而其游戏部门的表现亦不如人意。

到目前为止，加密货币崩溃的经济影响有限，部分原因是大多数主要银行和机构的资金经理几乎或完全没有接触虚拟货币。对于大多数投资者而言，近期股票市场下跌造成的影响要严重得多：自1月以来，数字资产亏损共计7000亿美元，与之相比，仅上周的全球股市就蒸发了1.3万亿美元。

虽然一些看好加密货币的人声称，比特币和其它加密货币可以在传统金融市场的动荡中成为投资者的避风港，今年的大跌却让这种说法站不住脚。作为投资者传统意义上的避风港，黄金过去两周行情上涨，同期虚拟货币却在下跌。

“我认为加密货币远没有其他一些交叉资产交易有吸引力，”英尼斯说。“黄金价格将大幅上涨，而我们开始看到，黄金和虚拟货币的涨跌呈现反比。”（财富中文网）

译者：Agatha

Bitcoin sank toward $4,000 and most of its peers tumbled on last Friday, extending the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index’s decline since Nov. 16 to 23%. That’s the worst weekly slump since crypto-mania peaked in early January.

After an epic rally last year that exceeded many of history’s most notorious bubbles, cryptocurrencies have become mired in a nearly $700 billion rout that shows few signs of abating. Many of the concerns that sparked the 2018 retreat — including increased regulatory scrutiny, community infighting and exchange snafus — have only intensified last week. Even after losses exceeding 70% for most virtual currencies, Oanda Corp.’s Stephen Innes has yet to see strong evidence of a capitulation that would signal a market bottom.

“There’s still a lot of people in this game,” Innes, head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda, said by phone from Singapore. If Bitcoin “collapses, if we start to see a run down toward $3,000, this thing is going to be a monster. People will be running for the exits.”

Innes said his base-case forecast is for Bitcoin to trade between $3,500 and $6,500 in the short term, with the potential to fall to $2,500 by January.

The largest cryptocurrency retreated as much as 7.6% on last Friday, before paring losses to 3.2% at 6:36 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg composite pricing. At $4,285, it’s trading close to its the lowest closing level since October 2017. Rivals Ether, XRP and Litecoin all declined at least 4%. The market value of all cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap.com has sunk to $140 billion, down from about $835 billion at the market peak in January.

The rout’s biggest casualties: individual investors who piled in just as prices peaked, and companies like Nvidia Corp. that supplied the crypto ecosystem. The California-based chipmaker has lost nearly half its value since the start of October as demand for its cryptocurrency mining chips collapsed and results in its gaming division disappointed.

The economic impact of the crypto collapse has so far been limited, in part because most major banks and institutional money managers have little to no exposure to virtual currencies. For most investors, recent declines in equity markets have arguably been far more important: the $700 billion slump in digital assets since January compares with $1.3 trillion lost from the market value of global shares just last week.

While some crypto bulls have argued that Bitcoin and its peers would act as havens from turmoil in traditional financial markets, this year’s losses have undercut those claims. Gold, a traditional haven for investors, has climbed in the past two weeks as virtual currencies tumbled.

“I don’t think coins are going to be anywhere near as attractive as some of the other cross-asset plays,” Innes said. “Gold prices are going to jump considerably higher and there’s an inverse relationship we’re starting to see with gold and coins.”