2019年要投资这几只科技股

哪怕市场宠儿终有一天也会失去光彩。最近多只科技股遭受重创，其中既包括社交网络巨头，也包括芯片制造商，有些公司因为隐私和数据泄露丑闻受罚，有些遭遇用户增长放缓，有些因为市场对新款苹果iPhone的需求不确定，有些是因为关税上涨导致中国进口成本上升。但无论是争议还是不断发酵的贸易战都无法阻止各国转向互联网消费媒体。“除非有人能让我相信所有人都要回到电视机和收音机年代，否则我仍然认为数字广告将继续保持增长。”哥伦比亚线程投资公司（Columbia Threadneedle Investments）的全球股票副总裁梅尔达·莫尔根表示。

这对想购买Facebook和Alphabet的投资者来说是个好消息，因为今年秋天它们的股票都处于熊市，为投资者提供了一个难得的打折季。以Facebook为例，它目前的市盈率史上最低，仅为19 ——大约是标普500指数的平均水平，仅仅是该公司一年前市盈率的一半。“这可能是适合买入的最后时机了。”同时持有这两只股票的投资公司Fred Alger Investments的首席执行官兼首席信息官丹·钟说。

20多年来，Alphabet已经从谷歌搜索引擎发展成为一家拥有8个产品的公司，每个产品的用户数都超过10亿（云端存储平台Google Drive在今年早些时候加入了Alphabet）。公司旗下越来越多的产品需要依靠人工智能的发展。“搜索引擎是可以充分扩展的数据宝库。”投资规模达196亿美元的Fidelity OTC基金的投资组合经理克里斯·林说，Alphabet是该基金持有最多的股票之一。“如果人工智能和机器学习是计算机发展的下一个趋势，这类公司就处于发展的最前沿。”尽管最近Alphabet和Facebook控制的个人数据规模成为公司公众形象的痛点，招致了监管审查，但两家公司也宣布采取措施，更好地保护消费者。“我认为存在一种误解，认为他们只是在销售数据，”在谈起Alphabet时林说道。 “谷歌实际上对此非常谨慎。”

还有一种媒体形式，消费者热度不减。“视频游戏仍然是一种非常非常实惠、实际上可能太过实惠的娱乐形式。”林说。他们公司持有动视暴雪（Activision Blizzard）的股票，暴雪以60美元甚至更低的价格销售《使命召唤》（Call of Duty）等游戏。NPD集团称，美国玩家2018年平均每周打游戏的时间为12小时，以这个价格计算，用户平均花在游戏上的费用为每小时10美分。这样口袋里有点小钱的玩家就可以在游戏里花钱购买虚拟服装、武器和其他设备等附加装备，这部分销售有望在暴雪今年74亿美元的预计销售额中占40多亿美元。“我们认为西方消费者肯定愿意花钱买这些东西。”钟补充说。钟还看好Take-Two互动软件公司，该公司的新游戏《荒野大镖客：救赎》（Red Dead Redemption 2）在10月创造了发行第一周周末销售的新纪录，该游戏发行前三天收入达7.25亿美元。

当然，无论是游戏、计算还是人工智能，都离不开半导体。这种元件体积小但力量大，最近由于市场担心中国需求放缓，半导体股票下跌，而贸易战的可能性更是起到了推波助澜的作用。投资规模达12亿美元的T. Rowe Price全球股票基金的投资组合经理戴夫·艾斯威尔特表示，德州仪器公司（Texas Instruments）在此期间受到了不公平的惩罚。艾斯威尔特表示，这家芯片制造商的资产负债表数据十分强劲，公司几乎把全部自由现金流都返还给股东，目前其交易价格比其峰值低20％，股息率因此超过3.2％，高于多年水平。此外，他补充说，投资者可能高估了德州仪器公司在贸易战中面临的风险：虽然该公司44%的销售额确实来自运往中国的产品，但其中许多商品最终出口目的地为其他地方，可能无需征收中国关税。（财富中文网）

本文另一版本刊登在2018年12月1日的《财富》杂志，作为《2019年股票基金投资指南：稳健与收益并行》文章的一部分。

译者：Agatha

Even market darlings eventually lose their luster. Tech stocks from social networking giants to chipmakers have taken a beating in recent months—punished for privacy and data-leaking scandals, slowing user growth, uncertain demand for new Apple iPhones, and, in some cases, higher costs on Chinese imports thanks to tariffs. But neither controversy nor a brewing trade war can stop global society’s shift to consuming media on the Internet. “Unless someone convinces me that all of us are going to go back to TVs and radios, I still think digital advertising is a place where the growth will continue,” says Melda Mergen, deputy global head of equities for Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

That’s good news for Facebook and Alphabet, whose stocks were both in bear market territory this fall, providing a rare chance for investors to get in at a discount. Facebook, for one, is trading at its lowest valuation ever, just 19 times earnings—about the average of the S&P 500 and half as expensive as it was a year ago. “This may end up being one of the last buying opportunities,” says Dan Chung, CEO and CIO of Fred Alger Investments, who owns both stocks.

Over 20 years, Alphabet has grown from the Google search engine into a portfolio that includes eight products with more than 1 billion users apiece (the cloud storage platform Google Drive joined the club earlier this year). That portfolio is increasingly powered by artificial intelligence. “Search is a wonderfully scalable treasure trove of data,” says Chris Lin, portfolio manager of the $19.6 billion Fidelity OTC fund, of which Alphabet is among the largest holdings. “If A.I. and machine learning are the next trend in computing, they are at the forefront.” And while the sheer scale of personal data that Alphabet and Facebook control has lately become a sore point for their public images and drawn regulatory scrutiny, the companies have also announced steps to better protect consumers. “I think there is this misconception that they’re just selling data,” Lin says of Alphabet. “Google has actually been pretty careful around this.”

There’s another form of media that consumers show no signs of kicking: video games. “Video games still represent a very, very affordable and, in fact, maybe too affordable form of entertainment,” says Lin. He owns Activision Blizzard, which sells games like Call of Duty for $60 or less. At that price, customers who play 12 hours a week—the average amount for U.S. gamers in 2018, according to NPD Group—spend about 10 cents an hour on the activity in a year. That should leave players with pocket change to spend on in-game purchases of add-ons like virtual costumes, weapons, and other equipment—which are on track to account for more than $4 billion of Activision’s expected $7.4 billion in sales this year. “We think the Western consumer is certainly willing to spend on those things,” adds Chung. Chung also likes Take-Two Interactive Software, which in October set a new record for opening weekend sales with its new game, Red Dead Redemption 2, grossing $725 million in three days.

Of course, neither gaming, computing, nor A.I. would be possible without semiconductors, those tiny but powerful bits whose stocks have tumbled recently over worries about a slowdown in Chinese demand, potentially exacerbated by a trade war. One company that has been unfairly punished is Texas Instruments, says Dave Eiswert, portfolio manager of the $1.2 billion T. Rowe Price Global Stock fund. The chipmaker, whose balance sheet is so robust it returns virtually all of its free cash flow to shareholders, is trading 20% below its peak, giving it a dividend yield of more than 3.2%, higher than it’s been in years, Eiswert says. Besides, he adds, investors are likely overestimating the company’s trade war risks: While Texas Instruments does derive about 44% of its sales from products shipped to China, many of those goods are ultimately exported elsewhere, likely ducking Chinese tariffs.

A version of this article appears in the December 1, 2018 issue of Fortune, as part of the story “2019 Investor’s Guide Stocks and Funds: Safety Meets Strength.”