摩根大通预测看多美国股市，称2019年有17%的涨幅

摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）与华尔街的许多机构一样，认为股市将在2019年大幅上涨，按照公司的预测，股民明年会过得更好。

以杜布拉夫科·拉克斯-布贾斯和马科·科兰诺维奇为首的战略分析师在上周五给客户的一份照会中表示，由于公司利润增长，投资者也愿意接受更高的估值，标普500指数（S&P 500 Index）明年年底之前会在现有的基础上实现17%的涨幅，达到3,100点。

这个预期值要稍微高于彭博社（Bloomberg）调查的14位其他战略分析师给出的平均值3,056点。

摩根大通写道，随着各公司投入超过1.5万亿美元来进行分红和回购股票，那些在基准指数达到九年牛市最低点后转身离去的投资者有可能回心转意。该投行表示，对冲基金的持股量尤其低于正常值，只需要让其回到平均水平，就意味着有5,000亿美元涌入股市。

战略分析师在照会中写道：“我们认为是周期性的领导力量促使了上行的贸易阵痛，尤其是在高度增长的行业。即使各公司2019年的收入增速较之2018年有所放缓，也依旧属于盈利范畴，收入也会继续增加。”

摩根大通预计，标普500公司明年的每股累计收益为178美元，同比增长8%。这份预测认为美国与中国达成贸易协定的可能性要大于关税摩擦升级的概率。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

Next year will be better for stock investors, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., which is joining other Wall Street bulls in forecasting big gains for 2019.

The S&P 500 Index will rise about 17% from current levels to 3,100 by the end of next year, driven by profit growth and investors’ willingness to accept higher valuations, strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and Marko Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients on last Friday.

The prediction is slightly higher than the average estimate of 3,056 from 14 other strategists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Investors who have turned away from the stock market as the benchmark index heads to one of its worst performances in the nine-year bull market will be lured back as companies spend more than $1.5 trillion on dividends and share repurchases, JPMorgan wrote. Hedge funds, in particular, hold fewer stocks than normal, and just a return to average would mean $500 billion pouring into U.S. equities, according to the investment bank.

“We see the upside pain-trade (is) driven by cyclical leadership, in particular, growth sectors,” the strategists wrote in the note. “Even though earnings are expected to decelerate relative to 2018, they should remain positive and continue to grow.”

S&P 500 companies will earn a cumulative $178 a share next year, an 8 percent increase, the firm projected. That estimate assumed a greater probability of a U.S.-China trade deal than tariff escalation.