企业盈利预期负面，可美股为什么不受影响？

对股票投资者来说，市场现状应该令人不安才对。

根据财经信息供应商FactSet的数据，截至7月3日，共有114家标普500指数成分股公司发布了第二季度财报和第三季度每股收益预估，其中88家预期负面。换而言之，77%的公司预计第三季度每股收益将低于2018年同期的水平。FactSet发布报告称，这创下了自2006年公司开始追踪该数据以来的单季比例第二高。

市场起伏向来依赖于对未来盈利增长的预期，这一消息堪称可怕，投资者却无动于衷。6月美国股市还几乎创下历史纪录，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数均触及新高，原因何在？

“简单来说，就是仰仗美联储。”资产管理公司GuideStone Capital Management的总裁大卫·斯皮卡说道。“投资者太过自满，也太过依赖货币政策了。有种观点认为，美联储能够拯救一切危难，而我认为投资者是在自欺欺人。”

从联邦基金期货市场价格走势来看，预期美联储在7月降息的可能性已达100%。而且市场不仅预测7月会降息，明年的每一次会议都会降息，基本认定本月底利率将会降至2.09%，2020年7月会议后降至1.52%。

虽然盈利增长减速，但仍然保持上升势头。财富管理公司Bartlett Wealth Management的负责人布莱恩·安特努奇表示：“企业财报显示盈利实现了正增长，也重申了对未来12个月的积极预期，2019年将出现衰退的想法已经消失。”

此外，许多人都认为，如果中美贸易摩擦的紧张局势得以缓和，就会有更多的好消息。“人们预计，接近年底时盈利预期将走高。” 投资公司Crossmark Global Investments的首席市场策略师维多利亚·费尔南德斯说道。

生产者物价指数的升幅与消费者物价指数的升幅大致相当，表明影响利润率以及盈利的因素是生产和成本，而非长期劳动力价格。

“如果人们预计第四季度（盈利预期）将会大幅升高，那么无视当前财报数据中的一些负面因素就说得通了，因为数据反映的都是过去的情况。”费尔南德斯说道。

如果市场走低，那么今年秋天投资者可能竹篮打水一场空。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

It should be an unnerving time for equities investors.

As of July 3, 88 out of 114 S&P 500 companies that released earnings and issued earning-per-share guidance for the third quarter gave negative guidance, according to FactSet. In other words, looking at their third quarters, 77% expected lower EPS than they did at the same time in 2018. The percentage is the second highest FactSet has seen in a single quarter since it began tracking that data in 2006, according to a report from the company.

For markets that depend on the anticipation of future earnings growth, that would seem to be terrible news. But investors have shrugged it off. June was a near record month and both the Dow and S&P 500 have hit record highs. Why?

“In one word, it’s the Fed,” said David Spika, president of GuideStone Capital Management. “Investors have become way too complacent and way too dependent on monetary policy. There’s a belief that the Fed can save us from everything, and I think investors have their heads in the sand.”

The Fed funds futures market has priced in a 100% chance that the Fed will cut rates—not just in July, but at every meeting through the next year, essentially assuming that the rate will be 2.09% at the end of this month and 1.52% after the July 2020 meeting.

Although earnings are off, they remain up. “The thought of a recession happening in 2019 vanished as companies reported positive earnings growth and reaffirming outlooks into the next twelve months,” said Brian Antenucci, a principal with Bartlett Wealth Management.

Also, many are assuming better news down the line if U.S.-China trade war tensions ease. “People are expecting that guidance to move higher toward the end of the year,” said Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments.

The producer price index was up about as much as the consumer price index, suggesting that production and cost, not long-term labor, are the issues affecting margins and, therefore, earnings.

“If people expect a big bump in the fourth quarter, perhaps that’s why people are overlooking some of the negativity we see in the numbers because that’s in the past,” Fernandez said.

If not, investors could be in for an ugly wakeup call this fall.