老问题难解决，梅西百货股价大跌

对于梅西能否百货实现外界期待已久的复苏，华尔街的信心正在减弱。

上周三，这家连锁百货商场运营商下调了2019年调整后利润，原因是不受顾客欢迎的商品大幅减值，其股价因此一度下挫18%。自今年年初以来，梅西百货的市值已经蒸发近60%。

公司同时披露，包括授权百货商场在内，第二季度可比销售额仅增长0.3%，虽然可以宣称销售额继续增长，但并无实际意义。相反，由于消费开支环境良好，这表明塔吉特、T.J. Maxx和Ulta Beauty等公司仍然在夺取梅西百货的市场份额。

梅西百货高管将此归咎于今年5月的糟糕天气以及该公司、特别是其自有品牌女性运动服饰业务“错过流行趋势”等等因素。首席执行官杰夫·根内特告诉《财富》杂志，虽然必须表现的更好，但这些问题是“时尚行业变幻莫测”的一部分。

但就算变幻莫测，如果梅西百货想夺回市场份额，它的自有服装品牌显然需要做出改善，而且是大幅改善。自有品牌（包括家居用品）几乎占梅西百货业务量的三分之一，该公司也把今后的很大一部分希望寄托在自有品牌上。

塔吉特在服装领域的强劲表现给梅西百货带来了更多压力——它大胆地放弃了一系列规模大而且稳定的品牌，并通过代替前者的新品牌取得了巨大成功。根内特承认，梅西百货的一些服装品牌需要“进行调整”，但他对重振这些品牌有“信心”。

应该关闭更多门店或者压缩规模吗？

梅西百货面临的另一重大挑战是，除了曼哈顿和旧金山等一线市场中的主要门店，该公司600家店铺中的大部分应该怎样处理。在可比销售额（包括电子商务）上升以及数字销售额连续40个季度增逾10%的情况下，显然可以看出梅西百货的门店业务正在滑坡，客流量呈下降趋势。

近几年在根内特治下梅西百货已经关闭了100多家门店。但长期以来他一直表示，只要能够实现正现金流，即便销售额下降的店铺也有价值，因为正现金流表明这些店铺的流入资金比流出的多。

的确，门店可以反映出一个市场的前景，而关闭门店后，梅西百货就永远失去了一大块业务。根内特说：“我们知道关店就等于逐客。”

此外，许多地区性门店都是梅西百货庞大电商业务的关键节点。此项业务每年可带来60亿美元的收入，而这些门店可以把商品递送给顾客或者其他店铺，还能够为购物者提供客户服务。

根内特说：“我不反对进一步关店，我只是想保证在这样做时我考虑到了所有顾客。”

但这些门店通常设在经营成本较高的较偏远地区，而不是郊区。因此，还无法确定为电商提供支持这个理由是否足以继续保留其中的许多店铺。根内特承认，梅西百货正在考虑缩小其中许多门店的面积，同时更多地采用自助服务模式，以便控制成本。

此外，除一线门店外，梅西百货的许多店铺都没有得到足够的维护，那里销售的衣物都被丢在了地上，墙壁也需要粉刷，这和许多公司所知的实体店必须为顾客提供的“体验式购物”大相径庭。很难看出让任何店铺变得破败对品牌有什么好处。

Wall Street is losing faith that Macy’s can pull off a long-awaited comeback.

The department store chain’s stock tanked as much as 18% on last Wednesday, after cutting its 2019 adjusted profit on the heels of huge markdowns on products that flopped with customers. This year, Macy’s has lost nearly 60% of its stock market value.

Macy’s also reported a meager 0.3% increase in second-quarter comparable sales, including licensed departments, allowing the company an empty victory of being able to crow about continued sales growth. But in a healthy consumer spending environment, it suggests Macy’s continues to lose market share to the likes of Target, T.J. Maxx, and Ulta Beauty.

Executives pinned the blame on factors like bad weather in May and on “fashion misses” in its women’s sportswear business, particularly its own brands. Macy’s CEO Jeff Gennette told Fortune that while the company had to do better, these problems are part of “the vagaries of being in the fashion business.”

But vagaries aside, it is clear Macy’s will have to do better, much better, with its own clothing brands if it wants to win back market share. The company gets almost a third of business from its brands (including home goods) and is betting a good chunk of its future on those private labels.

Target’s strong performance in apparel is adding to the pressure. That company has boldly eliminated a number of large-but-stale brands and found enormous success in the new names replacing them. Gennette acknowledged some of Macy’s clothing brands need to be “rejiggered” but said he had “confidence” Macy’s will revitalize the brands.

Should more stores close, or downsize?

Another big challenge for Macy’s is what to do with the bulk of its 600-store fleet, beyond the marquee stores it operates in top markets like Manhattan and San Francisco. With comparable sales up (which includes e-commerce) and digital sales rising more than 10% for the 40th quarter in a row, the math makes it clear that business in its stores is down and that fewer shoppers are coming for a visit.

Gennette, who oversaw the closing of more than 100 stores a couple of years ago, has long argued that even stores with declining sales are valuable, provided they have positive cash flow, meaning they take in more money than they need.

Indeed, stores provide a visibility in a market and when one closes, Macy’s permanently loses a big chunk of business. “We know that when we close the store, we’re firing customers,” Gennette said.

What’s more, many of these regional stores are crucial as nodes in Macy’s massive e-commerce operation—a $6 billion a year business— that can ship items to customers, to other stores, and where shoppers can get customer service.

“I’m not opposed to closing more doors, I just want to make sure that I’ve considered the full customer in that,” said Gennette.

But such facilities are typically in more remote areas rather than in suburbs, where doing business is more costly. Consequently, it’s an open question whether e-commerce support is enough of a justification to keep many locations open. Gennette conceded that Macy’s is looking at reduced square footage at many of these stores, along with more self-service to keep costs in check.

What’s more, many Macy’s stores beyond its top stores are inadequately maintained, with clothes strewn on the floor, and the walls in need of paint, a far cry from the “experiential retail” many companies know they need to offer shoppers to get them to physical locations. It’s hard to see how letting any stores become shabby adds to the brand ultimately.

发挥自身优势

梅西百货需要改进的地方很多，而根内特说正在起作用的因素会让梅西百货在第四季度有好的表现。

该公司有出色的电商业务、忠实的客户群体、开端良好的纯网络品牌（目前有50万件商品），以及对供应商的巨大影响力（尽管有可能正在减弱）。梅西百货的珠宝首饰和男士业务在近几个季度一直表现的很好。但这些显然还不够。

根内特说：“所有方案都在我们的考虑范围内。”如果想最终重现实质性增长，而不是无关痛痒的提升，梅西百货就得考虑所有的办法。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

Playing to Macy’s strengths

Macy’s has a lot to build on, and Gennette said things were in play that will let the chain have a good holiday quarter.

The company boasts a stellar e-commerce operation, a loyal clientele, a promising start to website-only brands (currently, the assortment of such merchandise is 500,000 items), and enormous (although possibly eroding) clout with vendors. Its jewelry and men’s business enjoyed good quarters. But all that is clearly not enough.

“All is on the table,” Gennette said. And all needs to be if Macy’s is to finally reignite growth in a meaningful way beyond some anemic increases.