想“捡便宜”？这四家快速增长的公司值得投资者关注

今年夏天，由于市场担心美国国内经济减速，股东们着实非常头疼。但即便是在5月和8月市场两次大幅下挫之后，投资者似乎仍然愿意高价买入股票——尤其是有巨大上涨潜力的股票。

按席勒市盈率来算，也即企业股价与经通胀调整后10年平均利润之比，8月中旬标普500指数的市盈率略高于29倍，几乎创下纪录新高，仅低于1929年股市大涨和2000年互联网繁荣时期。（大家可能还记得，之前两次上涨的结局都不是很好。）

此外，随着投资者预计当前牛市将不可避免地走向终结，共同基金和对冲基金等机构投资者都将资金集中在最有希望实现盈利增长的公司身上，进一步拉升了原本就已经热门的相关股票价格。8月中旬，Visa和Facebook的市盈率都超过了30倍，Adobe和PayPal的市盈率约为50倍。

如此一来，沃伦·巴菲特式的价值投资者遇到了难题，他们看重强劲增长和合理价格结合形成的长期潜力。为了找出适合价值投资的公司，我们在查看了今年《财富》增长最快公司的排行榜后挑出了四家公司，既有强劲的盈利前景，估值又算不上多高。

硅谷银行金融集团（SVB Financial Group）填补了不同寻常的细分市场：该集团是硅谷银行的控股公司，硅谷银行专门向主攻科技领域的风险资本投资者提供贷款。与其他地区性银行相比，硅谷银行的可变利率贷款组合规模庞大，可变利率贷款的利息收入会随着现行利率下降而变少，所以很容易受到美联储大范围降息的影响。在美联储7月降息之前，硅谷银行下调了对2019年利息相关利润的预测，部分投资者因此离场。过去一年时间里，该公司股价下跌了39%。

投资银行Piper Jaffray的分析师布莱特·拉巴丁认为，最糟糕的局面可能已经过去。他表示，目前股价对利率调整的消息“过分敏感”。要看看哪些因素没变？硅谷银行的主要营收来源仍然保持强劲，今年二季度风险资本投资达到660亿美元，预计将会创下有史以来第二高纪录。目前该股票的估值情况与其他地区性银行一致，其市盈率为9倍，但拉巴丁认为，一旦利率冲击的影响消退，该股应该可以获得溢价。

Centene是近年来全美增长最快的健康保险公司之一，但今年以来该公司股价下跌了15%，部分原因是许多投资者认为，该公司170亿美元收购Medicare和Medicaid附属医疗计划提供商WellCare交易的出价过高。但是，质疑者忽视了收购的一大好处，可以获得WellCare的Medicare Advantage客户群。Jefferies的高级分析师大卫·温德利将公私合营计划称为医疗保险领域中的“金发姑娘”，比单纯的Medicaid计划更有利润前景，而且随着越来越多的婴儿潮一代加入Medicare计划，其增长速度比大多数其他医疗计划都要快。收购WellCare的交易正等待监管部门批准，温德利预期收购完成后Centene的Medicare Advantage业务规模将扩大一倍。正因如此，分析师才会一致预测Centene未来三到五年的每股收益可实现年增长率18.6%，而对同期标普500指数的年增长率预测仅为5.7%。

Fears of a domestic slowdown and the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war created plenty of headaches for shareholders this summer. But even after dramatic market swoons in May and August, investors still seem willing to pay top dollar for stocks—especially those that promise substantial growth.

As measured by the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio, which compares companies’ share prices to the 10-year, inflation-adjusted average of their profits, the S&P 500 sat at just above 29 in mid-August. That’s higher than at nearly any other time on record, with the exceptions of the run-up in 1929 and the 2000 dotcom boom. (Neither one of those surges ended well, as you may recall.)

What’s more, as investors anticipate the inevitable end of the current bull market, institutional players like mutual funds and hedge funds have concentrated their money in the companies that seem like the safest bets for earnings growth. That has driven valuations for such crowded-trade stocks even higher—in mid-August, Visa and Facebook traded at more than 30 times earnings, while Adobe and PayPal traded at around 50 times earnings.

It all creates a conundrum for Warren ¬Buffett–style value investors—the ones who seek the long-term potential that comes from a combination of robust growth and a reasonable price tag. To find such value candidates, we scoured this year’s list of Fortune’s Fastest-Growing Companies and found four that combine strong earnings outlooks with valuations that remain far below nosebleed territory.

SVB Financial Group fills an unusual niche: It’s the holding company of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which specializes in lending to tech-focused venture capital investors. Compared with other regional banks, SVB has a particularly large portfolio of ¬variable-rate loans, whose interest payments fall when prevailing rates decline—which makes it vulnerable to broader cuts by the Federal Reserve. The run-up to the Fed’s July rate cut led SVB to lower its forecast for interest-related profits for 2019, and some investors fled; the stock is down 39% over the past year.

Piper Jaffray analyst Brett Rabatin believes the worst is likely over. At this point, he says, interest rate news “is more than priced in” to the stock. What hasn’t changed? The strength of SVB’s main revenue source. Venture capital investment reached $66 billion through the second quarter of this year, on pace for its second-best year ever. The stock is currently priced in line with other regional banks, at nine times earnings, but Rabatin believes it will deserve a premium once the interest rate shocks recede.

Centene has been among the country’s fastest-growing health insurance companies in recent years. Its shares have fallen 15% year to date, however, in part because many investors believe it overpaid in its $17 billion purchase of WellCare, a provider of Medicare- and Medicaid-affiliated health care plans. But skeptics miss one of the acquisition’s big benefits: WellCare’s pool of Medicare Advantage customers. Jefferies senior analyst David Windley calls these public-private hybrid plans the “Goldilocks” of the health insurance space—more profitable than Medicaid plans, and growing faster than most other health plan categories as more baby boomers age into Medicare. The purchase of WellCare, which is pending regulatory approval, will double the size of Centene’s Medicare Advantage business, Windley calculates. That’s a major reason that analysts’ consensus estimates show Centene’s earnings per share growing 18.6% annually for the next three to five years, compared with just 5.7% for the S&P 500.

有些公司的估值较低是因为处于商业周期中的低谷。半导体设备供应商Lam Research制造的元件用于多款芯片，包括为iPhone和一系列人工智能应用使用的芯片。该行业的起伏基本上与创新繁荣和供应过剩对应。此前两个财年Lam实现了惊人增长，但在截至6月30日的2019财年其销售额下降了13%。不过，随着投资者预期下一轮反弹即将到来，其股价已经开始回升。过去一个月里，NAND存储芯片的价格自2017年以来首次上涨，该类芯片在Lam营收中占近一半。投行KeyBanc Capital Markets的分析师韦斯顿·特维格表示：“这是个好兆头。”他预计，2020年Lam的营收将增长12%。

在医药股中，有时要对不被看好的药物反向押注才能够捡到“便宜”。总部位于马里兰州的Supernus Pharmaceuticals把未来押在两种旨在治疗注意缺陷多动障碍的药物上，其中一种是被称为SPN-812的非兴奋剂，试验显示一周内就可以缓解症状。该进展相当重大，因为类似的非兴奋剂可能需要一个月或更长时间才能够生效。但是，投资者对该药III期临床试验有些不安，因为试验结果显示提高剂量并不能够获得更明显的疗效。在过去一年里，Supernus的股价下跌了47%。

投行Janney的分析师艾斯特·洪认为，市场过于悲观：尽管想通过提高剂量改善疗效受阻，但SPN-812和Supernus旗下的另一款治疗注意缺陷多动障碍的药都有明显疗效。艾斯特·洪认为，SPN-812能够按预期获得美国食品与药品管理局的批准，并在明年推向市场。从长远来看，该药市场价值可能达到10亿美元。届时可能有更多的投资者将目光转向Supernus，毕竟当前该公司的市值仅为15亿美元。（财富中文网）

本文另一版本登载于《财富》杂志2019年9月刊，标题是《探秘捡便宜大佬的俱乐部》。

译者：艾伦

审校：夏林

Some companies sport low valuations because of where they sit in their business cycle. Lam Research makes equipment found in many kinds of chips, including those that power iPhones and a range of artificial intelligence applications. It’s an industry that rises and falls on innovation booms and supply gluts. After stratospheric growth in its previous two fiscal years, Lam’s sales fell 13% in its fiscal 2019, which ended June 30. But its stock has begun to rally as investors anticipate the next rebound. Prices for NAND memory chips, which account for nearly half of Lam’s revenues, have risen over the past month for the first time since 2017. “It’s a good sign,” says KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Weston Twigg, who forecasts a 12% rise in revenues for Lam in 2020.

In pharmaceutical stocks, finding a bargain can mean making a contrarian bet on a disfavored drug. Maryland-based Supernus Pharmaceuticals has staked much of its future on two drugs designed to fight ADHD. One, a non-stimulant dubbed SPN-812, has shown the ability to alleviate symptoms within a week during trials—a big differentiator, since similar non-¬stimulants can require a month or more to take effect. Investors were unnerved, however, by the drug’s Phase III clinical trials, in which higher doses had no additional positive effect. Over the past year, Supernus’s share price has sunk 47%.

Esther Hong, an analyst for Janney, argues that the market has been too pessimistic: Despite the dosage hiccup, both SPN-812 and Supernus’s other ADHD drug have shown positive results. Hong believes SPN-812 could be a billion-dollar drug in the long term if, as anticipated, it wins FDA approval and launches next year. That could offer a portfolio-burnishing boost for investors in a company with a current market capitalization of just $1.5 billion.

A version of this article appears in the September 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline “Inside the Bargain Hunter’s Club.”