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机器人和人工智能技术拯救了美国经济

经济学家们认为,生产力大幅提高提供了一剂灵丹妙药。

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为了满足客户的需求,Batesville Tool & Die公司于2023年准备招聘70名员工。但这并不容易。在美国印第安纳州一个只有7,300人的农村社区,很难吸引到工人,尤其是该公司还要与附近的本田(Honda)和康明斯发动机(Cummins Engine)等大牌制造商竞争。

求职者寥寥无几。

公司的首席执行官乔迪·弗莱德曼说:“镇上失业的人屈指可数。情况太糟糕了。”

Batesville Tool & Die只招募到40名员工。

后来公司采用了机器人。该公司投资购买了可以模仿人类工人的设备和视觉系统,帮助机器人“看到”自己在做什么。

过去几年,Batesville Tool & Die等公司的情况不断在美国各地重复上演。长期人手不足迫使许多公司购买机器从事没有人做的部分工作。公司还对现有工人进行培训,让他们必须使用先进技术,从而做到事半功倍。

结果是带来了意想不到的生产力繁荣,这就能够解释一个巨大的经济谜团:全球最大的经济体美国为了控制通胀维持高利率,这通常会导致经济衰退,但美国却为何可以保持如此健康,维持快速增长和低失业率?

经济学家们认为,生产力大幅提高提供了一剂灵丹妙药。当公司推出更高效的机器或技术时,员工的效率就会变得更高:他们每小时的单位产出也会随之增加。结果就是,公司通常能够在不涨价的情况下,增加利润和提高员工薪酬。通货膨胀仍然可以得到控制。

芝加哥联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)的行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比将生产力激增比喻成“经济魔豆。……你会看到更快的收入增长、更快的工资增长、更快的GDP增长,但却不会引发通胀。”

税务咨询公司RSM的首席经济学家乔·布鲁苏埃拉斯表示:“我们上一次看到这种情况还是在20世纪90年代末。”

当时的生产力大幅提高源于笔记本电脑、手机和互联网的突然普及所带来的早期回报,这让美联储(Federal Reserve)维持低借款利率,因为尽管经济和就业市场火热,通货膨胀依旧在可控范围内。

而现在,美联储激进的连续加息(从2022年3月开始已经进行了11次加息)成功地把通胀从四十年最高的9.1%降至3.1%,同时没有造成太多的经济影响。

BMO Capital Markets公司的高级经济学家萨尔·瓜蒂耶里称:“我本想说这是不可能的。但它确实发生了。”

一年前,几乎所有经济学家都警告说,美国的经济衰退不可避免。就连美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也在2022年警告道,控制通胀会引发“一些阵痛”,例如大规模裁员和失业率上升等。

但今年1月,鲍威尔却又表达了不同观点。失业率几乎处于半个世纪以来的最低水平,因此美联储主席告诉记者:“我们的就业市场极其强劲,通货膨胀率也在下降。”

他警告,美联储希望看到控制通胀取得更多的进展。但美联储乐观地认为通货膨胀将接近2%的目标,因此自7月以来,美联储一直没有加息,而且预计今年还会多次降息。

或许最有可能的解释是在过去一年左右的时间里,Batesville Tool & Die等公司成功提高了效率。在去年生产力开始恢复增长之前,以往的经验法则是为了把通胀维持在美联储2%的目标范围以内,平均时薪的年度涨幅不能超过3.5%。这就意味着必须缩小目前约4%的平均年度薪酬上涨幅度。但生产力的提高改变了这一局面:目前在不引发通胀的情况下,有更多的空间让薪酬增速维持高位。

瓜蒂耶里说:“公司面临的许多财务压力正常情况下会迫使它们涨价,但生产力大幅提高抵消了这些财务压力的影响。”

在今年2月召开的一次新闻发布会上,鲍威尔被问及,他是否认为更高生产力可以说明为什么在通胀骤降的情况下,经济仍旧能够保持稳定增长。

鲍威尔回答道:“是的,可以这么认为。”

据RSM计算,新冠疫情之前,生产力的年均增长率仅为1.5%左右,疫情之后趋势出现明显转变。随着美国经济以出乎意料的强劲势头快速摆脱2020年新冠疫情导致的衰退,一切都发生了改变,而企业难以重新雇用大量流失的工人。

由此造成的人手不足导致工资飙升。由于工厂和港口在消费者订单激增的压力下不堪重负,通货膨胀也随之升高。零部件短缺情况更加严重。

无奈之下,许多公司转向自动化,加快对设备、研发和其他形式知识产权的投资。大约一年前,效率回报开始显现。2023年4月至6月,劳动生产率年均增长3.6%,7月至9月为4.9%,10月至12月为3.2%。

Reata Engineering & Machine Works的首席执行官格雷迪·科普指出:“我们是被迫提高了效率。”随着就业市场的繁荣,这家位于美国科罗拉多州恩格尔伍德的公司无法快速招募到足够多的员工。与此同时,其客户也开始抵制高价。

因此,Reata引进了机器人等技术,以提高生产效率。新装软件能够自动向客户报价。过去,这一流程需要两周时间才可以完成,而现在只需要24小时。

许多经济学家和商界人士表示,即使并不能确定,他们也希望生产力繁荣能够持续下去。他们指出,人工智能才刚刚开始进入工厂、仓库、门店和办公室。

为航空航天和医疗器械行业生产零部件的Hirsh Precision公司的首席执行官彼得·多伊尔称:“目前,人工智能还不是我们的关键推动力,它只是某些领域的助手和加速器。全世界依然在努力了解人工智能的能力及其发展速度。”

早期证据表明,人工智能可以持续提高生产力。斯坦福大学(Stanford University)的埃里克·布林约尔松和麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)的丹尼尔·李与林德赛·雷蒙德在2023年进行了一项研究,对一家《财富》美国500强公司2020年至2021年间使用生成式人工智能助手的5,200名客服人员进行了跟踪调查。该人工智能工具就如何与客户打交道提出建议,并提供有用的内部文件链接。

研究发现,与不使用聊天机器人的同事相比,使用该工具的员工工作效率高出14%。他们能够更快处理更多客户来电。经验最少、技能最低的员工的工作效率提高幅度最大,达到34%。

自动化往往让人们担忧,机器将会取代人类,进而不断减少人类的就业机会。一些被机器人取代的工人通常很难找到新工作,最终只能接受更低的薪酬。

但历史表明,从长远来看,技术进步创造的就业岗位实际上多于破坏的就业岗位。生产、升级、维修和操作精密机器都离不开人类员工。一些被取代的上班族经过培训后,能够转而从事这些工作。而这一次,由于大批婴儿潮一代退休,导致劳动力短缺,这种转变可能会得到缓解。

如今,一些生产力的提高可能不仅源于先进技术,还源于满意度更高的员工。过去三年,劳动力市场紧张,让美国人能够跳槽,寻找薪酬更高、让他们更开心、效率更高的工作岗位。

来自美国密歇根州卡拉马祖的贾斯汀·汤普森就是其中之一。作为警察,他每天要工作16个小时,这让他疲惫不堪。

他说:“我真得感觉自己到了极限。”

汤普森的妻子看到一家包机航空公司正在招聘业务经理。虽然他没有航空公司的工作经验,但他的妻子认为,他可以发挥自己在伊拉克和阿富汗服役期间作为海军陆战队步兵获得的技能,处理后勤工作。

她是对的。2019年,汤普森被全能国际航空(Omni Air International)录用。

现年43岁的汤普森表示,他喜欢这份新工作,不出差时可以居家办公。事实证明,他在海军陆战队的经历,包括开发提高效率的途径等,具有宝贵的价值。当然,科技也带来了帮助:汤普森随身携带笔记本电脑、iPad平板和移动打印机,并使用专用软件管理后勤事务。

有些人则从低技能岗位换到了薪酬更丰厚、效率更高的岗位。

RSM的布鲁苏埃拉斯表示:“在2019年12月31日卷玉米饼的人们……他们的事业都有所提升。他们正在从事其他工作,收入也大幅上涨。”

Reata Engineering的员工接受了使用新型精密设备的培训。一名19岁的大学工程系学生利用人工智能工具,简化了公司的培训材料,而且缩短了培训时间。

Reata Engineering的首席执行官科普指出:“公司采用新技术的目的并不是为了裁员,而是让人们从事更有趣的工作”,当然,薪酬也变得更高。(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

为了满足客户的需求,Batesville Tool & Die公司于2023年准备招聘70名员工。但这并不容易。在美国印第安纳州一个只有7,300人的农村社区,很难吸引到工人,尤其是该公司还要与附近的本田(Honda)和康明斯发动机(Cummins Engine)等大牌制造商竞争。

求职者寥寥无几。

公司的首席执行官乔迪·弗莱德曼说:“镇上失业的人屈指可数。情况太糟糕了。”

Batesville Tool & Die只招募到40名员工。

后来公司采用了机器人。该公司投资购买了可以模仿人类工人的设备和视觉系统,帮助机器人“看到”自己在做什么。

过去几年,Batesville Tool & Die等公司的情况不断在美国各地重复上演。长期人手不足迫使许多公司购买机器从事没有人做的部分工作。公司还对现有工人进行培训,让他们必须使用先进技术,从而做到事半功倍。

结果是带来了意想不到的生产力繁荣,这就能够解释一个巨大的经济谜团:全球最大的经济体美国为了控制通胀维持高利率,这通常会导致经济衰退,但美国却为何可以保持如此健康,维持快速增长和低失业率?

经济学家们认为,生产力大幅提高提供了一剂灵丹妙药。当公司推出更高效的机器或技术时,员工的效率就会变得更高:他们每小时的单位产出也会随之增加。结果就是,公司通常能够在不涨价的情况下,增加利润和提高员工薪酬。通货膨胀仍然可以得到控制。

芝加哥联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)的行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比将生产力激增比喻成“经济魔豆。……你会看到更快的收入增长、更快的工资增长、更快的GDP增长,但却不会引发通胀。”

税务咨询公司RSM的首席经济学家乔·布鲁苏埃拉斯表示:“我们上一次看到这种情况还是在20世纪90年代末。”

当时的生产力大幅提高源于笔记本电脑、手机和互联网的突然普及所带来的早期回报,这让美联储(Federal Reserve)维持低借款利率,因为尽管经济和就业市场火热,通货膨胀依旧在可控范围内。

而现在,美联储激进的连续加息(从2022年3月开始已经进行了11次加息)成功地把通胀从四十年最高的9.1%降至3.1%,同时没有造成太多的经济影响。

BMO Capital Markets公司的高级经济学家萨尔·瓜蒂耶里称:“我本想说这是不可能的。但它确实发生了。”

一年前,几乎所有经济学家都警告说,美国的经济衰退不可避免。就连美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也在2022年警告道,控制通胀会引发“一些阵痛”,例如大规模裁员和失业率上升等。

但今年1月,鲍威尔却又表达了不同观点。失业率几乎处于半个世纪以来的最低水平,因此美联储主席告诉记者:“我们的就业市场极其强劲,通货膨胀率也在下降。”

他警告,美联储希望看到控制通胀取得更多的进展。但美联储乐观地认为通货膨胀将接近2%的目标,因此自7月以来,美联储一直没有加息,而且预计今年还会多次降息。

或许最有可能的解释是在过去一年左右的时间里,Batesville Tool & Die等公司成功提高了效率。在去年生产力开始恢复增长之前,以往的经验法则是为了把通胀维持在美联储2%的目标范围以内,平均时薪的年度涨幅不能超过3.5%。这就意味着必须缩小目前约4%的平均年度薪酬上涨幅度。但生产力的提高改变了这一局面:目前在不引发通胀的情况下,有更多的空间让薪酬增速维持高位。

瓜蒂耶里说:“公司面临的许多财务压力正常情况下会迫使它们涨价,但生产力大幅提高抵消了这些财务压力的影响。”

在今年2月召开的一次新闻发布会上,鲍威尔被问及,他是否认为更高生产力可以说明为什么在通胀骤降的情况下,经济仍旧能够保持稳定增长。

鲍威尔回答道:“是的,可以这么认为。”

据RSM计算,新冠疫情之前,生产力的年均增长率仅为1.5%左右,疫情之后趋势出现明显转变。随着美国经济以出乎意料的强劲势头快速摆脱2020年新冠疫情导致的衰退,一切都发生了改变,而企业难以重新雇用大量流失的工人。

由此造成的人手不足导致工资飙升。由于工厂和港口在消费者订单激增的压力下不堪重负,通货膨胀也随之升高。零部件短缺情况更加严重。

无奈之下,许多公司转向自动化,加快对设备、研发和其他形式知识产权的投资。大约一年前,效率回报开始显现。2023年4月至6月,劳动生产率年均增长3.6%,7月至9月为4.9%,10月至12月为3.2%。

Reata Engineering & Machine Works的首席执行官格雷迪·科普指出:“我们是被迫提高了效率。”随着就业市场的繁荣,这家位于美国科罗拉多州恩格尔伍德的公司无法快速招募到足够多的员工。与此同时,其客户也开始抵制高价。

因此,Reata引进了机器人等技术,以提高生产效率。新装软件能够自动向客户报价。过去,这一流程需要两周时间才可以完成,而现在只需要24小时。

许多经济学家和商界人士表示,即使并不能确定,他们也希望生产力繁荣能够持续下去。他们指出,人工智能才刚刚开始进入工厂、仓库、门店和办公室。

为航空航天和医疗器械行业生产零部件的Hirsh Precision公司的首席执行官彼得·多伊尔称:“目前,人工智能还不是我们的关键推动力,它只是某些领域的助手和加速器。全世界依然在努力了解人工智能的能力及其发展速度。”

早期证据表明,人工智能可以持续提高生产力。斯坦福大学(Stanford University)的埃里克·布林约尔松和麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)的丹尼尔·李与林德赛·雷蒙德在2023年进行了一项研究,对一家《财富》美国500强公司2020年至2021年间使用生成式人工智能助手的5,200名客服人员进行了跟踪调查。该人工智能工具就如何与客户打交道提出建议,并提供有用的内部文件链接。

研究发现,与不使用聊天机器人的同事相比,使用该工具的员工工作效率高出14%。他们能够更快处理更多客户来电。经验最少、技能最低的员工的工作效率提高幅度最大,达到34%。

自动化往往让人们担忧,机器将会取代人类,进而不断减少人类的就业机会。一些被机器人取代的工人通常很难找到新工作,最终只能接受更低的薪酬。

但历史表明,从长远来看,技术进步创造的就业岗位实际上多于破坏的就业岗位。生产、升级、维修和操作精密机器都离不开人类员工。一些被取代的上班族经过培训后,能够转而从事这些工作。而这一次,由于大批婴儿潮一代退休,导致劳动力短缺,这种转变可能会得到缓解。

如今,一些生产力的提高可能不仅源于先进技术,还源于满意度更高的员工。过去三年,劳动力市场紧张,让美国人能够跳槽,寻找薪酬更高、让他们更开心、效率更高的工作岗位。

来自美国密歇根州卡拉马祖的贾斯汀·汤普森就是其中之一。作为警察,他每天要工作16个小时,这让他疲惫不堪。

他说:“我真得感觉自己到了极限。”

汤普森的妻子看到一家包机航空公司正在招聘业务经理。虽然他没有航空公司的工作经验,但他的妻子认为,他可以发挥自己在伊拉克和阿富汗服役期间作为海军陆战队步兵获得的技能,处理后勤工作。

她是对的。2019年,汤普森被全能国际航空(Omni Air International)录用。

现年43岁的汤普森表示,他喜欢这份新工作,不出差时可以居家办公。事实证明,他在海军陆战队的经历,包括开发提高效率的途径等,具有宝贵的价值。当然,科技也带来了帮助:汤普森随身携带笔记本电脑、iPad平板和移动打印机,并使用专用软件管理后勤事务。

有些人则从低技能岗位换到了薪酬更丰厚、效率更高的岗位。

RSM的布鲁苏埃拉斯表示:“在2019年12月31日卷玉米饼的人们……他们的事业都有所提升。他们正在从事其他工作,收入也大幅上涨。”

Reata Engineering的员工接受了使用新型精密设备的培训。一名19岁的大学工程系学生利用人工智能工具,简化了公司的培训材料,而且缩短了培训时间。

Reata Engineering的首席执行官科普指出:“公司采用新技术的目的并不是为了裁员,而是让人们从事更有趣的工作”,当然,薪酬也变得更高。(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Trying to keep up with customer demand, Batesville Tool & Die began seeking 70 people to hire last year. It wasn’t easy. Attracting factory workers to a community of 7,300 in the Indiana countryside was a tough sell, especially having to compete with big-name manufacturers nearby like Honda and Cummins Engine.

Job seekers were scarce.

“You could count on one hand how many people in the town were unemployed,” said Jody Fledderman, the CEO. “It was just crazy.’’

Batesville Tool & Die managed to fill just 40 of its vacancies.

Enter the robots. The company invested in machines that could mimic human workers and in vision systems, which helped its robots “see” what they were doing.

The Batesville experience and others like it have been replicated countlessly across the United States for the past couple of years. Chronic worker shortages have led many companies to invest in machines to do some of the work they can’t find people to do. They’ve also been training the workers they do have to use advanced technology so they can produce more with less.

The result has been an unexpected productivity boom, which helps explain a great economic mystery: How has the world’s largest economy managed to remain so healthy, with brisk growth and low unemployment, despite brutally high interest rates that are intended to tame inflation but that typically cause a recession?

To economists, strong productivity growth provides an almost magical elixir. When companies roll out more efficient machines or technology, their workers can become more productive: They increase their output per hour. A result is that companies can often boost their profits and raise their employees’ pay without having to jack up prices. Inflation can remain in check.

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has likened surging productivity to “magic beanstalk beans for the economy. … You can have faster income increases, faster wage growth, faster GDP without generating inflation.’’

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm RSM, said, “The last time we saw anything like this was the late 1990s.”

That was when a productivity surge — an early payoff from the sudden embrace of laptops, cellphones and the internet — helped allow the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing rates low because inflation remained under control even as the economy and the job market sizzled.

This time, the Fed’s aggressive streak of rate hikes — 11 of them starting in March 2022 — has managed to help cool inflation from a four-decade high of 9.1% to 3.1% while causing little economic hardship.

“I would have said it’s not possible,’’ said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “But that’s exactly what happened.’’

A year ago, nearly every economist was warning that a recession was all but inevitable. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself warned in 2022 that beating inflation would inflict “some pain” in the form of widespread layoffs and higher unemployment.

By last month, Powell was sounding a different note. With unemployment barely above a half-century low, the Fed chair told reporters, “We’ve had a very strong labor market, and we’ve had inflation coming down.”

He did caution that the central bank wants to see further progress in slowing inflation. Yet the Fed is so optimistic that inflation is heading toward its 2% goal that it hasn’t raised rates since July and is expected to cut rates multiple times this year.

Perhaps the likeliest explanation is the greater efficiencies that companies like Batesville Tool & Die have managed to achieve in the past year or so. Before productivity began its resurgent growth last year, a rule of thumb was that average hourly pay could rise no more than 3.5% annually for inflation to stay within the Fed’s 2% target. That would mean that today’s roughly 4% average annual pay growth would have to shrink. Yet higher productivity has changed that equation: There’s now more leeway for wage growth to stay elevated without igniting inflation.

“A lot of that pressure on business finances — that normally causes them to raise prices — has been offset by strong productivity growth,’’ Guatieri said.

At a news conference this month, Powell was asked whether he believed higher productivity helps explain why the economy has kept growing steadily even while inflation has tumbled.

“That’s one way to look at it — yeah,” Powell replied.

The productivity boom marks a sharp shift from the pre-pandemic years, when annual productivity growth averaged around a tepid 1.5%, according RSM’s calculations. Everything changed as the economy rocketed out of the 2020 pandemic recession with unexpected vigor, and businesses struggled to re-hire the many workers they had shed.

The resulting worker shortage sent wages surging. Inflation jumped, too, as factories and ports buckled under the strain of rising consumer orders. Parts shortages arose.

Desperate, many companies turned to automation. Investment in equipment and in research and development and other forms of intellectual property accelerated. The efficiency payoff began to arrive almost a year ago. Labor productivity rose at a 3.6% annual pace from last April through June, 4.9% from July through September and 3.2% from October through December.

At Reata Engineering & Machine Works, “efficiency was kind of forced on us,’’ CEO Grady Cope said. With the job market roaring, the company, based in Englewood, Colorado, couldn’t hire fast enough. Meantime, its customers were starting to balk at paying higher prices.

So Reata installed robots and other technology to produce more with less. Software allowed it to automate the delivery of price quotes to customers. That process used to require two weeks. Now, it can be done in 24 hours.

Many economists and business people say they’re hopeful, if not certain, that the productivity boom can continue. Artificial intelligence, they note, is only beginning to penetrate factory floors, warehouses, stores and offices.

“Right now, AI is not a critical enabler for us; it’s an assistant and accelerator in certain roles,’’ said Peter Doyle, CEO of Hirsh Precision, which makes parts for the aerospace and medical device industries. “The world is still trying to understand what AI is capable of doing and how quickly it will advance.’’

The early evidence suggests that AI could sustain the productivity gains. A study last year by Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University and Danielle Li and Lindsey Raymond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology tracked 5,200 customer-support agents at a Fortune 500 company who used a generative AI-based assistant in 2020 and 2021. The AI tool provided suggestions for dealing with customers and links to useful internal documents.

Those using the chatbot were found to be 14% more productive than colleagues who didn’t use the tool. They handled more calls and completed them faster. The biggest gains in productivity — 34% — came from the least-experienced, least-skilled workers.

Automation tends to raises fears that machines will replace human workers and thereby kill jobs. Some workers supplanted by robots do often struggle to find new work and end up settling for lower pay.

Yet history suggests that in the long run, technological improvements actually create more jobs than they destroy. People are needed to build, upgrade, repair and operate sophisticated machines. Some displaced workers are trained to shift into such jobs. And that transition is likely to be eased this time by the retirement of the vast baby boom generation, which is causing labor shortages.

Some of today’s productivity gains may be coming not just from advanced technology but from more satisfied workers. The tight labor markets of the past three years allowed Americans to change jobs and find others that pay better and make them happier and more productive.

One of them was Justin Thompson, of Kalamazoo, Michigan, who had felt burned out by his job as a police officer, with its 16-hour workdays.

“I was literally running myself into the ground,’’ he said.

Thompson’s wife saw a job posting for operations manager at a charter airline. Even without airline experience, his wife felt he could use skills he gains as a Marine Corps infantryman — handling logistics for missions — during tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.

She was right. Omni Air International hired him in 2019.

Thompson, 43, said he he loves the new job, which allows him to work from home when he’s not traveling. And his Marine experience — which included developing ways to improve efficiency — has proved invaluable. Technology helps, too: Thompson travels with a laptop, iPad and mobile printer and uses proprietary software to manage logistics.

Other workers have switched from low-skill jobs to those that pay better and are more productive.

“The people who were rolling tacos on Dec. 31, 2019 … yeah, they’ve moved up,’’ RSM’s Brusuelas said. “They’re doing other things and making a lot more money.”

At Reata Engineering, staffers were trained to use new sophisticated equipment. One 19-year-old employee, a university engineering student, has used AI tools to make company training materials less cumbersome and time-consuming.

“The whole point is not to lay people off,’’ said Cope, the CEO of Reata Engineering. “The point is to make people do jobs that are more interesting’’ — and pay better, too.

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