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逆风收购化石燃料资产,股神的葫芦里究竟卖的什么药?

Katherine Dunn
2020-07-11

为什么世界上最成功的选股高手巴菲特现在要做多化石燃料?

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对于2020年的市场动向,哪怕是业余观察者也知道一件事:能源行业哀鸿一片。石油股下跌,破产企业增加,更不用说世界各国政府都在大张旗鼓地推行以低碳为特色的“绿色新政”。

那么,为什么世界上最成功的选股高手、商业大亨沃伦·巴菲特现在要做多化石燃料呢?

美东时间7月5日,巴菲特终于打破数月的沉寂,再次祭出大手笔。伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司宣布斥资40亿美元收购道明尼能源公司(Dominion Energy)的天然气输送网络和储存资产,并承担57亿美元的债务。此举表明,巴菲特非常看好化石燃料在可预见未来的财务价值。

这个时机煞是奇怪,道明尼能源的首席执行官此前表示,出于财务和可持续发展的考虑,这家总部位于里士满的公用事业公司希望退出天然气业务。道明尼能源已经承诺到2050年实现净零碳排放,该目标要求其迅速转向可再生能源。这是包括壳牌和英国石油在内的一些世界最大能源公司所青睐的战略。(天然气的碳排放量约为煤炭的一半,因此经常被吹捧为一种更加环保、更有助于减排的替代能源,但它的低碳程度仍然不足以实现最雄心勃勃的减排目标。)

通过收购这些资产,巴菲特将获得一个东海岸液化天然气(LNG)航运码头,这是美国仅有的六个LNG终端之一。而正是这些基础设施,帮助美国蓬勃发展的页岩气行业非常方便地将其产品出口到世界其他地区。不幸的是,世界现在根本不需要这么多天然气:由于持续多年的页岩气热潮导致天然气严重过剩,再加上新冠疫情对需求端的冲击,其价格在今年5月跌至25年来的最低点。

这笔交易还会让巴菲特背上一些政治包袱。在7月6日的电话会议上,道明尼能源的首席执行官汤姆·法雷尔二世表示,对天然气输送和储存业务的投资“很容易招惹官司、极具不确定性,而且非常昂贵。”

在这个行业,旷日持久的官司俨然成为“一种趋势。”法雷尔补充说,“尽管我们对美国的经济增长和能源安全深感担忧,但这种新现实使得我们无法按照既定步伐发展壮大这些资产。”

在出售天然气业务的同时,道明尼能源宣布放弃与杜克能源(Duke Energy)联合开发,旨在将天然气从西弗吉尼亚州输送到北卡罗来纳州的大西洋海岸管道项目。法雷尔解释说,这一决定反映了围绕此类项目的“大规模不确定性”。同一天,一名联邦法官裁定达科他输油管道采用不当方法获得一项关键的环境许可证,并下令将其关闭。

对于这笔收购交易背后的理由,巴菲特透露甚少,但他不太可能被环保压力所左右。多年来,这位“奥马哈先知”跨越能源鸿沟,两头下注。他既大举投资太阳能和其他可再生能源,又构筑起了一个庞大的传统能源组合,并由此成为世界上碳密集度最高的亿万富翁之一。

巴菲特或许持有这样一种颇为得体的观点:从长远来看,随着美国经济逐步摆脱新冠疫情阴影,能源需求将驶入上升轨道,而他的新资产非常符合这种前景。他赌的是,化石燃料将比可再生能源项目更迅速地满足这种需求。

市场观察家很可能会承认第一点。未来几十年,在人口增长、工业化、全球中产阶级崛起等因素的推动下,世界将面临与日俱增的能源需求——同时还要努力实现能源多样化。事实上,埃克森美孚等公司预测称,世界将在未来几十年需要更多的能源,而其中大部分需求仍然将由化石燃料来满足。这些能源巨头甚至高调宣称,其投资策略正是建立在这一假设之上。

国际能源署警告称,尽管引人注目的减排承诺层出不穷,但这些承诺缺乏投资支撑。该机构在今年2月表示,世界上最大的油气公司仅有1%的投资用于清洁能源。本月早些时候,国际能源署再次警告说,世界根本无法满足对可再生能源的需求。

换句话说,这种缺口意味着对传统天然气的需求看涨。

此外,如果世界经济真的开始复苏,新冠疫情很可能会让那些规模庞大、并且生存下来的能源公司(或投资者)受益。早在这场危机爆发前,美国页岩气行业就负债累累,异常脆弱。到5月底,需求下降已经导致页岩气先驱切萨皮克能源(Chesapeake Energy)和怀廷石油(Whiting Petroleum)等公司相继阵亡,就连一些业界巨头也宣布大幅削减短期产量和长期投资。

如果巴菲特的新资产非常稳健,足以承受不景气年份对油气行业的不利影响,那么对于股神来说,这些资产就有可能是一笔颇具价值的收购。

与此同时,自巴菲特宣布这笔交易以来,天然气价格已经上涨8.1%,继续从6月下旬创下的数十年低点回升。这表明他的赌注背后不乏推动力。但回报并不是必然的。截至7月8日早间,天然气价格较年初累计下降了14.6%。(财富中文网)

译者:任文科

对于2020年的市场动向,哪怕是业余观察者也知道一件事:能源行业哀鸿一片。石油股下跌,破产企业增加,更不用说世界各国政府都在大张旗鼓地推行以低碳为特色的“绿色新政”。

那么,为什么世界上最成功的选股高手、商业大亨沃伦·巴菲特现在要做多化石燃料呢?

美东时间7月5日,巴菲特终于打破数月的沉寂,再次祭出大手笔。伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司宣布斥资40亿美元收购道明尼能源公司(Dominion Energy)的天然气输送网络和储存资产,并承担57亿美元的债务。此举表明,巴菲特非常看好化石燃料在可预见未来的财务价值。

这个时机煞是奇怪,道明尼能源的首席执行官此前表示,出于财务和可持续发展的考虑,这家总部位于里士满的公用事业公司希望退出天然气业务。道明尼能源已经承诺到2050年实现净零碳排放,该目标要求其迅速转向可再生能源。这是包括壳牌和英国石油在内的一些世界最大能源公司所青睐的战略。(天然气的碳排放量约为煤炭的一半,因此经常被吹捧为一种更加环保、更有助于减排的替代能源,但它的低碳程度仍然不足以实现最雄心勃勃的减排目标。)

通过收购这些资产,巴菲特将获得一个东海岸液化天然气(LNG)航运码头,这是美国仅有的六个LNG终端之一。而正是这些基础设施,帮助美国蓬勃发展的页岩气行业非常方便地将其产品出口到世界其他地区。不幸的是,世界现在根本不需要这么多天然气:由于持续多年的页岩气热潮导致天然气严重过剩,再加上新冠疫情对需求端的冲击,其价格在今年5月跌至25年来的最低点。

这笔交易还会让巴菲特背上一些政治包袱。在7月6日的电话会议上,道明尼能源的首席执行官汤姆·法雷尔二世表示,对天然气输送和储存业务的投资“很容易招惹官司、极具不确定性,而且非常昂贵。”

在这个行业,旷日持久的官司俨然成为“一种趋势。”法雷尔补充说,“尽管我们对美国的经济增长和能源安全深感担忧,但这种新现实使得我们无法按照既定步伐发展壮大这些资产。”

在出售天然气业务的同时,道明尼能源宣布放弃与杜克能源(Duke Energy)联合开发,旨在将天然气从西弗吉尼亚州输送到北卡罗来纳州的大西洋海岸管道项目。法雷尔解释说,这一决定反映了围绕此类项目的“大规模不确定性”。同一天,一名联邦法官裁定达科他输油管道采用不当方法获得一项关键的环境许可证,并下令将其关闭。

对于这笔收购交易背后的理由,巴菲特透露甚少,但他不太可能被环保压力所左右。多年来,这位“奥马哈先知”跨越能源鸿沟,两头下注。他既大举投资太阳能和其他可再生能源,又构筑起了一个庞大的传统能源组合,并由此成为世界上碳密集度最高的亿万富翁之一。

巴菲特或许持有这样一种颇为得体的观点:从长远来看,随着美国经济逐步摆脱新冠疫情阴影,能源需求将驶入上升轨道,而他的新资产非常符合这种前景。他赌的是,化石燃料将比可再生能源项目更迅速地满足这种需求。

市场观察家很可能会承认第一点。未来几十年,在人口增长、工业化、全球中产阶级崛起等因素的推动下,世界将面临与日俱增的能源需求——同时还要努力实现能源多样化。事实上,埃克森美孚等公司预测称,世界将在未来几十年需要更多的能源,而其中大部分需求仍然将由化石燃料来满足。这些能源巨头甚至高调宣称,其投资策略正是建立在这一假设之上。

国际能源署警告称,尽管引人注目的减排承诺层出不穷,但这些承诺缺乏投资支撑。该机构在今年2月表示,世界上最大的油气公司仅有1%的投资用于清洁能源。本月早些时候,国际能源署再次警告说,世界根本无法满足对可再生能源的需求。

换句话说,这种缺口意味着对传统天然气的需求看涨。

此外,如果世界经济真的开始复苏,新冠疫情很可能会让那些规模庞大、并且生存下来的能源公司(或投资者)受益。早在这场危机爆发前,美国页岩气行业就负债累累,异常脆弱。到5月底,需求下降已经导致页岩气先驱切萨皮克能源(Chesapeake Energy)和怀廷石油(Whiting Petroleum)等公司相继阵亡,就连一些业界巨头也宣布大幅削减短期产量和长期投资。

如果巴菲特的新资产非常稳健,足以承受不景气年份对油气行业的不利影响,那么对于股神来说,这些资产就有可能是一笔颇具价值的收购。

与此同时,自巴菲特宣布这笔交易以来,天然气价格已经上涨8.1%,继续从6月下旬创下的数十年低点回升。这表明他的赌注背后不乏推动力。但回报并不是必然的。截至7月8日早间,天然气价格较年初累计下降了14.6%。(财富中文网)

译者:任文科

Even a casual observer to the markets knows one thing about 2020: The energy sector is in trouble. Oil stocks are down, bankruptcies are up, and governments around the world are pushing for the equivalent of a low-carbon Green New Deal.

Why then is Warren Buffett, the world's most successful stock picker and business tycoon, going long on fossil fuels right now?

Buffett broke his dealmaking drought earlier this week when Berkshire Hathaway announced it would acquire Dominion Energy's pipeline network and storage assets for $4 billion, with the assumption of $5.7 billion in debt—a resounding vote in favor of the financial value of fossil fuels for the foreseeable future.

The timing was odd. Dominion's chief executive had said the company, based in Richmond, wanted out of the business for both financial and sustainability reasons. Dominion has committed to lowering its emissions to net zero by 2050, a target that will require it to shift to renewables at rapid speed. It's a strategy favored by some of the world's largest energy companies, including Shell and BP. (While natural gas has about half the emissions of coal, and is therefore often touted as a more environmentally friendly alternative on the way to lowering emissions, it is still not low-carbon enough to meet the most ambitious emissions goals.)

In buying the assets, Buffett will gain an East Coast shipping terminal, one of only six in the country, for liquid natural gas (LNG), the very infrastructure that allows the U.S.'s shale boom bounty to be conveniently exported to the rest of the world. Unfortunately, the world simply doesn't need any more natural gas right now: The shale boom has produced years of hefty surpluses, and with COVID-19 hitting demand, prices hit a quarter-decade low in May.

Buffett will also be acquiring some political baggage in the deal. In a Monday call, Dominion CEO Tom Farrell II said that investment in gas transmission and storage had become "increasingly litigious, uncertain, and costly."

"This trend" of protracted legal battles, Farrell continued, "though deeply concerning for our country’s economic growth and energy security, is the new reality which threatens the pace at which we intended to grow these assets."

The sale came alongside Dominion's announcement that it had dropped its Atlantic Coast pipeline project, a joint project with Duke Energy to pump gas from West Virginia to North Carolina, a decision that Farrell said reflected "large-scale uncertainty" around such projects. The same day, a federal judge ordered the Dakota Access pipeline to shut down, ruling it had not properly been granted a key environmental permit.

Buffett has revealed little about his rationale for the deal, though he's unlikely to be swayed by the environmental pressure. The Oracle of Omaha has played both sides of the energy divide over the years. He's invested in solar and other renewable forms of energy and has built up a large traditional energy portfolio, making him one of the most carbon-intensive billionaires in the world.

Long-term, there is a decent argument to be made that Buffett's new assets fit with a vision that energy demand will move in one direction—up—as the American economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. And he'd be betting that fossil fuels will meet that demand more readily than renewable energy projects.

Market observers will concede him the first point. The world is facing rising energy demand in the coming decades, buoyed by larger populations, industrialization, and the rising global middle class—alongside a struggle to diversify energy sources. In fact, companies like Exxon Mobil have openly based their investment strategies on the assumption that the world will need more energy in the decades to come, and that much of that demand will still be met by fossil fuels.

And the International Energy Agency has warned that despite the surge in high-profile carbon-cutting pledges, the investment behind those promises is lacking. In February the agency said that just 1% of investment by the world's largest oil and gas companies is in clean energy, and earlier this month it warned again that the world was simply not on track to meet the demand for renewable energy.

In that shortfall, in other words, sits demand for good old natural gas.

Further, if the world's economy does start to recover, the COVID-19 pandemic will likely serve to benefit those energy companies—or investors—who were big enough to survive. The U.S. shale sector went into the crisis loaded with debt and surprisingly fragile. By late May, the drop in demand had already claimed casualties including shale pioneer Chesapeake Energy and Whiting Petroleum, while even the sector's biggest hitters have announced sprawling short-term cuts to production and long-term cuts to investment.

Those could add up to a valuable buy for Buffett if the assets are robust enough to stand up to what could be punishing years for oil and gas.

Meanwhile, since Buffett's announcement this week, natural-gas prices have risen 8.1%, continuing to recover from the multi-decade low hit in late June, showing some momentum behind his bet. But a payoff is no certainty. As of July 8 morning, natural gas was down 14.6% year to date.

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