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如果特朗普想赢,他还需要1100万张选票

SHAWN TULLY
2020-11-02

这次要想连任,特朗普必须大幅提升自己的普选支持率。

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四年前,特朗普成功成为继小布什之后第二位在普选中失利,却在终选后入主白宫的总统。如今特朗普的全美内的支持率较上次有所下降,如此一来,特朗普能否再次连任,则取决于他在接下来的拉票能力,看其是否能够再度缩小选票差距。

2016年,由于当时的总统候选人多为第三党,特朗普获得了前所未有的利好,最终在密歇根、威斯康星和宾夕法尼亚这三个关键州以不到一个百分点的微弱优势险胜希拉里。

这次要想连任,特朗普必须大幅提升自己的普选支持率。

保罗•克里什纳姆蒂是一位美国大选分析师,同时也是一位职业政治赌徒。据克里什纳姆蒂透露,英国博彩网(Betfair)用户已就本次大选结果押注2.6亿美元,未来几天预计还会翻倍。

克里什纳姆蒂认为,特朗普如果要成功连任,他必须在2016年6300万张支持票的基础上再额外获得1100万,即再完成17%的净增长。换而言之,特朗普必须从美国白人、蓝领技工、低文化阶层以及他的新近支持者群体中争取更多的选票,以此弥补他在老年人、独立人士及共和党群体中的缺失。目前特朗普要做的是继续巩固白人工薪阶层,同时拉拢拉美裔,后者对他在古巴问题及经济复苏事宜上的强硬态度颇为赞赏。

“特朗普似乎认为他可以重获数百万工人阶层的选票,包括那些上次没选他的,” 克里什纳姆蒂说道,“有些工人阶级可能确实会这么做,但这还远远不够。”佛罗里达大学教授迈克尔•麦克唐纳德补充道:“特朗普的主要策略是试图让拜登看起来不受欢迎,就像当初他对付希拉里那样,但他这次的成效似乎不佳。”

显然,在这最后关头,特朗普必须设法扩大自己的吸引力,使得那些不满其疫情处理方式的选民回心转意,并抑制郊区居民对拜登的高涨热情。一直以来,特朗普都贬低拜登,称其上任将会破坏美国现有的社会保障及医疗保险制度,同时承诺自己将会平息城市暴力活动,以此保护当地居民权益,但目前尚不知此种说辞是否能够帮助其获胜。

特朗普还要面对的一个主要问题是选民们的“第三种”选择倾向,上届大选中就有很大一部分选民既不支持共和党也不支持民主党,因为他们觉得这两者都很令人生厌。今年这一部分人有回流趋势,也就是说他们会选择在拜登和特朗普两者中支持一方。按正常逻辑,上次不支持特朗普的人在今年也不会那么快的改变心意,那么他们唯一的选择就是拜登。

2016年,特朗普在总计1.37亿张普选选票中斩获了6300万张支持票,而希拉里的成绩是6600万张,两人的支持率分别为46.1%和48.2%。那次的选举极不寻常,可以发现除去这两人的选票,还有800万张选票(约占最票数的6%)流向了第三党候选人,自由意志党及绿党候选人分别获得了450万及150万张选票,而在一般情况下,第三方候选人的支持情况不会高于2%。

“2016年民调显示,相当比例的美国人不想投票给主要候选人,因为他们不喜欢特朗普和希拉里两者中的任何一人,所以他们做出了第三种选择。” 麦克唐纳解释道。他指出,希拉里当年的电子邮件调查事件暴露出她是一个行事隐秘且遵从精英至上的人,所以选民不喜欢她,但今年拜登的支持率要比希拉里高很多。特朗普是想通过抹黑拜登,把这至关重要的800万张摇摆票收入囊中。然而,拜登坚挺的支持率证明特朗普的策略并不奏效,在最新的盖洛普民调中,拜登的支持率比特朗普高出了5个百分点。

虽然前路尚不明晰,但今年的选民投票率可能会大大超过2016年。特朗普需要的是所有人都投出手中的一票,并且争取到这数千万张额外选票中的多数部分,这样才能获胜。不过现在看来,拜登获得额外选票支持的可能性更大。

有消息表明大量选民已经开始提前投票,据大选数据,已有8600万美国人完成了选票邮寄或是前往投票站投票,该数字占2016年美国选民总数的三分之二。德克萨斯州的投票总数已经超过2016年,北卡罗来纳、亚利桑那和佛罗里达三个州的投票总数也达到了2016年80%的水平。盖洛普去年10月的一项调查发现,69%的注册选民在被问及投票状态时选择了“比以往更有热情”一项,而2016年选择这个选项的人数只有50%。

克里什纳姆蒂预测今年的投票率可以达到1.55亿,会较2016年增加1800万。他认为,刨去第三党候选人的支持票,特朗普若想获胜,则至少要获得47.5%的普选支持率,以此对战拜登的50.5%。也就是说特朗普至少要获得7360万张选票,较2016年还要高出1060万。

“即使是7360万张,我也不觉得他会赢,但他有机会,”克里什纳姆蒂说道:“从他当选的那一刻起,我就觉得他不会再赢第二次了。因为他只能获得一部分人的支持,但一个成功的总统应该是众人赞赏的。他一直在加倍努力地讨好他的现有支持者,他是史上最优秀的表演家,但他总挑起争端,得不到所有人的好感。”

当然,特朗普仍可能像四年前那般创造奇迹,但他现时已然失去了65岁以上老年人们的支持,还在不断触怒郊区居民,现在的他,真的有可能抢到1100万张额外支持票么?特朗普需要搭建起一座桥梁,桥梁的尽头应该是更多样化的选民面貌,但可惜他从未努力过。(财富中文网)

编译:陈怡轩

四年前,特朗普成功成为继小布什之后第二位在普选中失利,却在终选后入主白宫的总统。如今特朗普的全美内的支持率较上次有所下降,如此一来,特朗普能否再次连任,则取决于他在接下来的拉票能力,看其是否能够再度缩小选票差距。

2016年,由于当时的总统候选人多为第三党,特朗普获得了前所未有的利好,最终在密歇根、威斯康星和宾夕法尼亚这三个关键州以不到一个百分点的微弱优势险胜希拉里。

这次要想连任,特朗普必须大幅提升自己的普选支持率。

保罗•克里什纳姆蒂是一位美国大选分析师,同时也是一位职业政治赌徒。据克里什纳姆蒂透露,英国博彩网(Betfair)用户已就本次大选结果押注2.6亿美元,未来几天预计还会翻倍。

克里什纳姆蒂认为,特朗普如果要成功连任,他必须在2016年6300万张支持票的基础上再额外获得1100万,即再完成17%的净增长。换而言之,特朗普必须从美国白人、蓝领技工、低文化阶层以及他的新近支持者群体中争取更多的选票,以此弥补他在老年人、独立人士及共和党群体中的缺失。目前特朗普要做的是继续巩固白人工薪阶层,同时拉拢拉美裔,后者对他在古巴问题及经济复苏事宜上的强硬态度颇为赞赏。

“特朗普似乎认为他可以重获数百万工人阶层的选票,包括那些上次没选他的,” 克里什纳姆蒂说道,“有些工人阶级可能确实会这么做,但这还远远不够。”佛罗里达大学教授迈克尔•麦克唐纳德补充道:“特朗普的主要策略是试图让拜登看起来不受欢迎,就像当初他对付希拉里那样,但他这次的成效似乎不佳。”

显然,在这最后关头,特朗普必须设法扩大自己的吸引力,使得那些不满其疫情处理方式的选民回心转意,并抑制郊区居民对拜登的高涨热情。一直以来,特朗普都贬低拜登,称其上任将会破坏美国现有的社会保障及医疗保险制度,同时承诺自己将会平息城市暴力活动,以此保护当地居民权益,但目前尚不知此种说辞是否能够帮助其获胜。

特朗普还要面对的一个主要问题是选民们的“第三种”选择倾向,上届大选中就有很大一部分选民既不支持共和党也不支持民主党,因为他们觉得这两者都很令人生厌。今年这一部分人有回流趋势,也就是说他们会选择在拜登和特朗普两者中支持一方。按正常逻辑,上次不支持特朗普的人在今年也不会那么快的改变心意,那么他们唯一的选择就是拜登。

2016年,特朗普在总计1.37亿张普选选票中斩获了6300万张支持票,而希拉里的成绩是6600万张,两人的支持率分别为46.1%和48.2%。那次的选举极不寻常,可以发现除去这两人的选票,还有800万张选票(约占最票数的6%)流向了第三党候选人,自由意志党及绿党候选人分别获得了450万及150万张选票,而在一般情况下,第三方候选人的支持情况不会高于2%。

“2016年民调显示,相当比例的美国人不想投票给主要候选人,因为他们不喜欢特朗普和希拉里两者中的任何一人,所以他们做出了第三种选择。” 麦克唐纳解释道。他指出,希拉里当年的电子邮件调查事件暴露出她是一个行事隐秘且遵从精英至上的人,所以选民不喜欢她,但今年拜登的支持率要比希拉里高很多。特朗普是想通过抹黑拜登,把这至关重要的800万张摇摆票收入囊中。然而,拜登坚挺的支持率证明特朗普的策略并不奏效,在最新的盖洛普民调中,拜登的支持率比特朗普高出了5个百分点。

虽然前路尚不明晰,但今年的选民投票率可能会大大超过2016年。特朗普需要的是所有人都投出手中的一票,并且争取到这数千万张额外选票中的多数部分,这样才能获胜。不过现在看来,拜登获得额外选票支持的可能性更大。

有消息表明大量选民已经开始提前投票,据大选数据,已有8600万美国人完成了选票邮寄或是前往投票站投票,该数字占2016年美国选民总数的三分之二。德克萨斯州的投票总数已经超过2016年,北卡罗来纳、亚利桑那和佛罗里达三个州的投票总数也达到了2016年80%的水平。盖洛普去年10月的一项调查发现,69%的注册选民在被问及投票状态时选择了“比以往更有热情”一项,而2016年选择这个选项的人数只有50%。

克里什纳姆蒂预测今年的投票率可以达到1.55亿,会较2016年增加1800万。他认为,刨去第三党候选人的支持票,特朗普若想获胜,则至少要获得47.5%的普选支持率,以此对战拜登的50.5%。也就是说特朗普至少要获得7360万张选票,较2016年还要高出1060万。

“即使是7360万张,我也不觉得他会赢,但他有机会,”克里什纳姆蒂说道:“从他当选的那一刻起,我就觉得他不会再赢第二次了。因为他只能获得一部分人的支持,但一个成功的总统应该是众人赞赏的。他一直在加倍努力地讨好他的现有支持者,他是史上最优秀的表演家,但他总挑起争端,得不到所有人的好感。”

当然,特朗普仍可能像四年前那般创造奇迹,但他现时已然失去了65岁以上老年人们的支持,还在不断触怒郊区居民,现在的他,真的有可能抢到1100万张额外支持票么?特朗普需要搭建起一座桥梁,桥梁的尽头应该是更多样化的选民面貌,但可惜他从未努力过。(财富中文网)

编译:陈怡轩

Four years ago, Donald Trump became the second presidential candidate after George W. Bush in 2000 to lose the popular vote and take the White House. It’s a given that he’ll come up short in the national count this time, too. The outcome hinges on Trump’s ability to keep that deficit narrow enough to secure a second victory in the electoral college. In 2016, Trump prevailed with a relatively low number of total ballots, because third-party candidates amassed a far higher proportion than in most elections, and Trump got the maximum mileage imaginable from his haul by edging Hillary Clinton by less than a point in no fewer than three electoral vote-rich states, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

To win reelection, Trump needs to immensely boost his performance in the popular vote. Paul Krishnamurty, a professional political gambler and elections expert for the U.K. betting site Betfair––the venue has booked $260 million on the election so far and expects that number to double in the days to come––reckons that Trump must raise his 2016 count of 63 million by roughly 11 million, or 17%, to stand a decent chance. That’s the net increase required, meaning as of today, Trump must squeeze enough new votes from his white, blue-collar, non–college-educated base and groups newly leaning his way to make up for his losses among seniors, independents, and disgruntled Republicans, and still add 10-plus million to his 2016 total. Trump can get part of the way by rallying his hard core of white working-class voters and notching gains with Latinos impressed by his handling of the economy and tough stance on Cuba.

“He seems to think he can get millions of working-class folks who weren’t enthused enough to vote for him the last time, to vote for him this time,” says Krishnamurty. “Some of them will, but it won’t be nearly enough.” Adds University of Florida professor Michael McDonald, who heads the United States Elections Project, an excellent source for voter turnout data: “Trump’s main strategy is attempting to make Biden appear unlikable, like Hillary Clinton. But that messaging is not getting through.” Trump can only win by somehow broadening his appeal in the last days of the campaign. He’d need to bring home millions of the graying Americans appalled by his management of the COVID crisis, and dampen the suburbanites’ surging enthusiasm for Biden. It’s unclear that claiming the former VP would undermine Social Security and Medicare, or his law and order message pledging to protect homeowners by quelling violence in the cities, get him anywhere near the giant gains in the popular vote needed for victory.

A major problem for Trump is that a big chunk of the electorate shunned both the Republican and Democratic standard-bearers last time because they found both of them intensely dislikable. Now, these onetime protesters are back supporting a major candidate because they deem one of the contenders likable, and they’re not suddenly warming to Donald Trump. In 2016, Trump won 63 million votes of the 137 million cast. His total was 3 million short of Clinton’s 66 million, and he trailed her share by 2.1%, 46.1% to 48.2%. The election was highly unusual, because 8 million, almost 6% of the total, went to third-party tickets, notably the Libertarian and Green candidates at 4.5 million and 1.5 million votes, respectively. That 6% is three times the 2% that usually goes to third-party tickets and write-ins and is the non–major-party share expected in this election.

“The 2016 Census reported that a high percentage of Americans didn’t want to vote for a major candidate, because they didn’t like them,” says McDonald. “So they took other options.” He notes that the James Comey letter drove home the narrative that Clinton was secretive and elitist. “It was one of these moments when people’s impressions crystallize,” he says. “But Biden’s approval numbers are much better than Clinton’s.” Trump is clearly trying to lure a big number of the 8 million rebel voters for whom the likability quotient is crucial by painting Biden as a bad guy. “The idea is to motivate people who like or don’t dislike Biden to hold their nose and vote for Trump,” says McDonald. That the strategy isn’t working is evidenced by Biden’s sturdy approval ratings, which in recent Gallup surveys exceeded Trump’s rating by 5 points.

It’s probable, though not certain, that turnout this year will far exceed that in 2016. Trump needs a scenario where sundry more ballots are cast, and where he gets a big proportion of the tens of millions of extra votes, to prevail. It looks now, however, like the lion’s share of the surge will go to Biden. The huge increase in early voting points to a big turnout. According to the Elections Project, 86 million Americans, two-thirds of the total number in 2016, have already voted either by mail or at polling sites. The volume in Texas already exceeds the 2016 total, and over 80% of the people who voted in North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida four years ago have cast their ballots. A Gallup survey from October finds that 69% of registered voters are “more enthusiastic than usual” about the race versus 50% in 2016.

Krishnamurty predicts that turnout could hit 155 million, an 18 million increase over the Trump-Clinton contest. He reckons that to win, Trump would need to get at least 47.5% of that vote to Biden’s 50.5%. (Don’t forget the roughly 2% forecast for mavericks and write-ins.) But just look at how many more ballots he’d need to collect. Of the 155 million votes cast, he’d need to win 73.6 million. That’s 10.6 million more than his 63 million in 2016. “Even at 73.6 million, I don’t think he’d win, but he’d have a shot,” says Krishnamurty. “I’ve been saying he wouldn’t win again from the day he was elected because he’s a divisive candidate, and successful Presidents are unifiers. He doubled down on the strategy of appealing to his base. He’s the greatest showman ever, but he went out and picked fights, and that’s what killed him with the seniors.”

It’s still conceivable that Trump can repeat the sorcery of 2016. But adding almost 11 million votes when he’s losing the 65 and over crowd and doing even more to rile suburban women? Trump needed a bridge to a much broader constituency that he never built, and now it’s a bridge too far.

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