2020年注定不寻常。面对一位大力推崇提税、大幅授予工会权力、致力于加强企业监管的新任总统,美国商界的诸位首席执行官竟然展现出了一种前所未有的欢迎态度。
作为即将上任的新总统,拜登绝对算不上是美国大企业们的朋友。不过,他的政策能不能具体落实下来,在很大程度上还是取决于参议院的日后格局,一切都还不好说。但可以肯定的是,拜登已经向大众宣告了自己即将竭尽全力采取的若干项具体措施。自1970年起在政界摸爬滚打了50年整的拜登,堪称思路清晰。
如果要用一句话来总结拜登的经济政策倾向,那么就是:中产及无产阶级优先,富人放于其次。拜登称不上是一个共产主义者,在其政治生涯里的大部分时间里,他更倾向于中间派。
但去年夏天,这位中间派却在宾夕法尼亚州邓莫尔的一次重要演讲中直言不讳地说:“建设美国的并不是华尔街的资本家,而是平凡人,可能是你的邻居,也可能是为你提供食物的那些人。”一直以来,邓莫尔的老百姓都是拜登试图拉拢的对象。
所以,从拜登主张的商业改革政策里,我们亦能够窥见他的思想倾向。
提高公司税
拜登明确表示,增收公司税会是他就任后的“第一要务”。
特朗普2017年出台的《减税及就业法案》(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act)曾经将最高公司税由35%降至了21%,如若日后国会批准拜登政策,那么该数值会被重新抬升至28%。他还强调:“我们不鼓励跨国公司在海外发展,企业的海外营收部分需要双倍缴税。”与此同时,拜登还会为回流至美国的本土或海外企业以及环境友好型、绿色投资型企业提供税收优惠。
提高个税
拜登将以多种方式提高个人所得税。
首先,个人最高边际所得税将从37%提升至39.6%;其次,年收入超过40万美元的个人需增缴社会保障税,而年收入超过100万美元的个人还需额外增缴资本利得税;最后,年收入超过40万美元的个人目前所享有的分项扣除额将会减少,而低收入人群在将来会享受更多的税收抵免。
“我的指导原则在于:普通劳动者和富人应该受到同样程度的嘉赏。”拜登说道。
加强工会权力
“加强工会权力”也是特朗普政治政策的核心。
“工会造就了中产阶级。”拜登表示:“有了工会,我们才有中产阶级。要想解决美国商业体系中的权力滥用问题,必须通过另外一种第三方权力体系进行约束,这个第三方权力就是‘工会’。”拜登承诺,他将通过多种途径帮助工会,同时赋予工人更多更新的法律保护,以此促成权力间的平衡。
他还承诺自己会以一种更严格的态度对待雇主,进一步加大对于美国公司雇员们的保护力度,无论其加入工会与否。如民主党在竞选纲领中所述,他们“会增加劳工部的资金和人员配备,积极执行雇员工资、工时、健康及安全相关规定。”
实施新规定
除去工会相关变革,拜登还欲出台更多新规,其中包括:(1)将最低工资提高至15美元/小时;(2)为联邦贷款项目建立一个公共信用报告机构;(3)重振消费者金融保护局;(4)取消雇佣及服务合同中的强制仲裁条款;(5)为雇员新增最高可达12周的带薪家庭假或医疗假;(6)加强企业并购交易的审查工作等等。
深化奥巴马医改:推出“公共医保”
拜登将推行一项惠及全民的“公共医保”政策。他将允许医疗系统协商决定处方药的定价,并允许低成本药物的进口——而美国规模最大、占整个经济18%的医疗保健行业通常会对这些措施感到深恶痛绝,因为这会破坏、甚至摧毁该行业一片相当广泛的势力范围。
在任期内增加2.4万亿美元的基础设施投资
这是一项大部分行业一般都会支持的举措,而且按理来说,落实起来也相对容易:国会的立法者们都希望能够将联邦资金回笼,因而在这一点上空前团结。
但特朗普此前担任总统时,也想要按照自己的意愿出台一项基础设施法案,党派之间的矛盾就非常激烈,以至于四年来,国会无法就其中的细节达成一致。拜登想要大幅改善这种局面,也将异常困难。
更宏观的前景
一个更宏观的问题是:拜登将如何影响整个美国的经济?这仍然很难说,各界也答案不一。没有任何一位总统可以凭一己之力做出重大的财政政策变更——这主要还是取决于国会。
而货币政策更是几乎完全不在总统掌控之中。Moody’s Analytics的一项研究结论是,拜登当选总统会比特朗普连任提供更多的就业、增加人们的收入,而斯坦福大学胡佛研究所(Stanford University’s Hoover Institution)却得出了相反的结论。普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)的研究则表示,几乎没有证据说明总统可以影响经济的走向。
为什么很多首席执行官也在欢庆看似对他们不利的拜登的胜利?有一些原因是出于他们各自的特殊利益,需要具体问题具体分析,但也有些原因是普遍的。
具体而言,就是与特朗普相比,拜登不太可能将贸易战升级——不仅是对中国,而且是对美国的盟友,特别是欧洲、加拿大和墨西哥。每有一家公司从这种关税壁垒中受益,就会有其他数十家公司遭受进口成本上升和出口关税报复性增长的困扰。
此外,拜登对移民的威胁也可能不如特朗普。农业,建筑和技术等行业尤其依赖移民,然而特朗普上台后实施的种种限制措施和发布的引战言论都使他们深受其扰,移民们感到恐惧、不受欢迎。
拜登当然不会将美国的大门敞开;他也不希望移民从美国工会中的工人那里夺走工作。但是他说,他将为没有合法证件的移民提供相关路线规划,告诉他们能够在哪里、通过什么途径取得公民身份,并消除在工作场所和社区中可能由此产生的冲突。
许多商业领袖与拜登统一战线的主要原因是,他们再也无法承受特朗普领导下的混乱状态了。商业追求的是一种稳定、可预测、明确的局面。而特朗普却不停地在一些可以对商业产生重大影响的问题上嗤之以鼻、轻率决策——设置关税壁垒,闭关锁国,对公司报复性征税,离开北约——都让商人们筋疲力尽。
正如许多人私下里所说的那样,只要知道规则,他们就可以展开竞争,但是如果规则在不断变化,他们就无法竞争、维持正常的市场秩序。
也许拜登离美国企业心中理想的总统形象还很遥远。但在过去混乱的四年后,他会做的很好。(财富中文网)
编译:陈怡轩、陈聪聪
2020年注定不寻常。面对一位大力推崇提税、大幅授予工会权力、致力于加强企业监管的新任总统,美国商界的诸位首席执行官竟然展现出了一种前所未有的欢迎态度。
作为即将上任的新总统,拜登绝对算不上是美国大企业们的朋友。不过,他的政策能不能具体落实下来,在很大程度上还是取决于参议院的日后格局,一切都还不好说。但可以肯定的是,拜登已经向大众宣告了自己即将竭尽全力采取的若干项具体措施。自1970年起在政界摸爬滚打了50年整的拜登,堪称思路清晰。
如果要用一句话来总结拜登的经济政策倾向,那么就是:中产及无产阶级优先,富人放于其次。拜登称不上是一个共产主义者,在其政治生涯里的大部分时间里,他更倾向于中间派。
但去年夏天,这位中间派却在宾夕法尼亚州邓莫尔的一次重要演讲中直言不讳地说:“建设美国的并不是华尔街的资本家,而是平凡人,可能是你的邻居,也可能是为你提供食物的那些人。”一直以来,邓莫尔的老百姓都是拜登试图拉拢的对象。
所以,从拜登主张的商业改革政策里,我们亦能够窥见他的思想倾向。
提高公司税
拜登明确表示,增收公司税会是他就任后的“第一要务”。
特朗普2017年出台的《减税及就业法案》(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act)曾经将最高公司税由35%降至了21%,如若日后国会批准拜登政策,那么该数值会被重新抬升至28%。他还强调:“我们不鼓励跨国公司在海外发展,企业的海外营收部分需要双倍缴税。”与此同时,拜登还会为回流至美国的本土或海外企业以及环境友好型、绿色投资型企业提供税收优惠。
提高个税
拜登将以多种方式提高个人所得税。
首先,个人最高边际所得税将从37%提升至39.6%;其次,年收入超过40万美元的个人需增缴社会保障税,而年收入超过100万美元的个人还需额外增缴资本利得税;最后,年收入超过40万美元的个人目前所享有的分项扣除额将会减少,而低收入人群在将来会享受更多的税收抵免。
“我的指导原则在于:普通劳动者和富人应该受到同样程度的嘉赏。”拜登说道。
加强工会权力
“加强工会权力”也是特朗普政治政策的核心。
“工会造就了中产阶级。”拜登表示:“有了工会,我们才有中产阶级。要想解决美国商业体系中的权力滥用问题,必须通过另外一种第三方权力体系进行约束,这个第三方权力就是‘工会’。”拜登承诺,他将通过多种途径帮助工会,同时赋予工人更多更新的法律保护,以此促成权力间的平衡。
他还承诺自己会以一种更严格的态度对待雇主,进一步加大对于美国公司雇员们的保护力度,无论其加入工会与否。如民主党在竞选纲领中所述,他们“会增加劳工部的资金和人员配备,积极执行雇员工资、工时、健康及安全相关规定。”
实施新规定
除去工会相关变革,拜登还欲出台更多新规,其中包括:(1)将最低工资提高至15美元/小时;(2)为联邦贷款项目建立一个公共信用报告机构;(3)重振消费者金融保护局;(4)取消雇佣及服务合同中的强制仲裁条款;(5)为雇员新增最高可达12周的带薪家庭假或医疗假;(6)加强企业并购交易的审查工作等等。
深化奥巴马医改:推出“公共医保”
拜登将推行一项惠及全民的“公共医保”政策。他将允许医疗系统协商决定处方药的定价,并允许低成本药物的进口——而美国规模最大、占整个经济18%的医疗保健行业通常会对这些措施感到深恶痛绝,因为这会破坏、甚至摧毁该行业一片相当广泛的势力范围。
在任期内增加2.4万亿美元的基础设施投资
这是一项大部分行业一般都会支持的举措,而且按理来说,落实起来也相对容易:国会的立法者们都希望能够将联邦资金回笼,因而在这一点上空前团结。
但特朗普此前担任总统时,也想要按照自己的意愿出台一项基础设施法案,党派之间的矛盾就非常激烈,以至于四年来,国会无法就其中的细节达成一致。拜登想要大幅改善这种局面,也将异常困难。
更宏观的前景
一个更宏观的问题是:拜登将如何影响整个美国的经济?这仍然很难说,各界也答案不一。没有任何一位总统可以凭一己之力做出重大的财政政策变更——这主要还是取决于国会。
而货币政策更是几乎完全不在总统掌控之中。Moody’s Analytics的一项研究结论是,拜登当选总统会比特朗普连任提供更多的就业、增加人们的收入,而斯坦福大学胡佛研究所(Stanford University’s Hoover Institution)却得出了相反的结论。普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)的研究则表示,几乎没有证据说明总统可以影响经济的走向。
为什么很多首席执行官也在欢庆看似对他们不利的拜登的胜利?有一些原因是出于他们各自的特殊利益,需要具体问题具体分析,但也有些原因是普遍的。
具体而言,就是与特朗普相比,拜登不太可能将贸易战升级——不仅是对中国,而且是对美国的盟友,特别是欧洲、加拿大和墨西哥。每有一家公司从这种关税壁垒中受益,就会有其他数十家公司遭受进口成本上升和出口关税报复性增长的困扰。
此外,拜登对移民的威胁也可能不如特朗普。农业,建筑和技术等行业尤其依赖移民,然而特朗普上台后实施的种种限制措施和发布的引战言论都使他们深受其扰,移民们感到恐惧、不受欢迎。
拜登当然不会将美国的大门敞开;他也不希望移民从美国工会中的工人那里夺走工作。但是他说,他将为没有合法证件的移民提供相关路线规划,告诉他们能够在哪里、通过什么途径取得公民身份,并消除在工作场所和社区中可能由此产生的冲突。
许多商业领袖与拜登统一战线的主要原因是,他们再也无法承受特朗普领导下的混乱状态了。商业追求的是一种稳定、可预测、明确的局面。而特朗普却不停地在一些可以对商业产生重大影响的问题上嗤之以鼻、轻率决策——设置关税壁垒,闭关锁国,对公司报复性征税,离开北约——都让商人们筋疲力尽。
正如许多人私下里所说的那样,只要知道规则,他们就可以展开竞争,但是如果规则在不断变化,他们就无法竞争、维持正常的市场秩序。
也许拜登离美国企业心中理想的总统形象还很遥远。但在过去混乱的四年后,他会做的很好。(财富中文网)
编译:陈怡轩、陈聪聪
Only in 2020 would CEOs welcome a new President who promises to raise their taxes, intensify business regulation, and massively empower labor unions. But then this is no ordinary year.
Joe Biden as President will not be much of a friend to Big Business. Exactly what he will do or can do depends heavily on the makeup of the Senate, which is still undetermined. But he has declared several specific actions he will take as President if he can, and after 50 years in public life, his instincts are clear.
The one-sentence description of Biden’s economic inclinations is this: He thinks the middle class and working class should get more, and the wealthy should get less. He’s no socialist; for most of his political career he’s been near the center. But in a major speech last summer in Dunmore, Pa., a former coal-mining borough near his old hometown of Scranton, he was blunt: “Wall Street bankers and CEOs didn’t build this country. You can just look around your neighborhood or your kitchen table and see who built this country.” The people of Dunmore are the kind of voters whose support he has always sought.
Biden’s leanings are apparent in the most important business-related policy changes he has said he wants to make:
Raise taxes on companies
He has been unequivocal on this, saying that raising taxes will be a “day one” priority, effectively undoing Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017—if Congress agrees. The TCJA cut the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%; Biden would raise it to 28%. He has also said, “We’re going to double the tax on foreign profits so we don’t encourage people to leave and build abroad.” At the same time, he would offer tax incentives to companies that bring overseas operations to the U.S. and make certain green investments, among other things.
Raise taxes on individuals making over $400,000 a year
Biden would increase personal taxes in multiple ways, starting by raising the top marginal income tax rate from 37% to 39.6%. He’d also increase Social Security taxes on income over $400,000, tax capital gains as ordinary income on income over $1 million, and reduce the value of itemized deductions for taxpayers with incomes over $400,000. He’d increase or create tax credits for those with low incomes. “The guiding principle,” he has said, should be, “we must reward work as much as we’ve rewarded wealth.”
Strengthen labor unions
Of all Biden’s policy prescriptions, this is the closest to his heart. “Unions built the middle class,” he has said. “That’s why we have a middle class. In corporate America, the only way to deal with abuse of power is with power, and labor unions are the only ones that have the capacity to do it.” He has promised to tilt the balance of power by facilitating union organizing in myriad ways and by giving workers new legal protections. He says he will also protect employees—unionized or not—by getting much tougher with employers. “We will increase funding and staffing at the Department of Labor to aggressively enforce wage, hour, health, and safety rules across the economy,” the Democratic platform promises.
Impose new regulations
In addition to union-related regulations, Biden has been clear that he would raise the federal minimum wage to $15; create a public credit reporting agency and require federal lending programs to use it; "reinvigorate" the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which was established in the Dodd-Frank Act; eliminate forced-arbitration clauses in employment and service contracts; and mandate paid family and medical leave for up to 12 weeks. He has also promised to scrutinize mergers and acquisitions much more closely.
Add a public option to Obamacare
Biden’s public option would be available to all. He would allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices and would permit importation of lower-cost drugs. The U.S. health care industry—America's largest industry, accounting for 18% of the entire economy—generally hates those proposals, fearing they’d decimate or demolish wide swaths of the sector.
Increase infrastructure spending by $2.4 trillion during his term
That’s a change business in general would love, and delivering it ought to be easy: Legislators are united in wanting to bring federal dollars back home. But President Trump also wanted an infrastructure bill, and partisan warfare was so fierce that in four years Congress couldn't agree on the details. Biden will have a tough time doing better.
The big picture
A larger question—how Biden will affect the U.S. economy overall—remains hard to answer. No President alone can significantly change fiscal policy; that’s mostly up to Congress. Monetary policy is almost entirely out of the President’s hands. A study from Moody’s Analytics concluded that a President Biden would produce far more jobs and income than a continuation of Trump, while research from Stanford University’s Hoover Institution found the opposite. Research from Princeton University says there’s little evidence that Presidents influence the economy’s performance one way or the other.
Why do so many CEOs welcome the seemingly hostile Biden’s victory? For a couple of specific reasons and one big general reason. Specifically, Biden is less likely than Trump to escalate trade wars, not just with China but also with U.S. allies, notably Europe, Canada, and Mexico. For every company that benefits from tariffs, dozens of others suffer from the higher cost of imports and from retaliatory tariffs on their own exports.
In addition, Biden will likely be less menacing to immigrants than Trump has been. The agriculture, construction, and technology industries in particular rely on immigrants and have suffered from Trump’s restrictions and his bellicose rhetoric that makes immigrants feel fearful and unwelcome. Biden won’t throw open the gates; he doesn’t want immigrants taking jobs away from unionized workers. But he says he’ll provide a road map to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and end workplace and community raids.
The big, general reason many business leaders are fine with a President Biden is that they can't take the tumult any longer. Business prizes stability, predictability, certainty. Trump’s incessant whipsawing on some of the largest issues—imposing tariffs, closing borders, retaliating against companies, leaving NATO—has exhausted businesspeople. As many of them say privately, they can compete so long as they know the rules, but can’t if the rules are constantly changing.
Biden is far from U.S. business’s ideal President. But after the past four chaotic years, he’ll do just fine.