在连任失败成为不争的事实后,这三周,特朗普就从公共视野中消失了——他以总统身份出席的公共活动一直是空白。这意味着他的日子充斥着忧思、电视和高尔夫,而一切都表示他拒绝承认失败。他继续罔顾不断恶化的疫情,将感染人数往低了报,尽管美国的死亡病例已达260,000——最近,每两天新增的感染人数和9/11罹难者的数目相当。在特朗普的所作所为中,他似乎是在践行着自己对诺曼·文森特·皮尔(Norman Vincent Peale,著名牧师、演讲家,被誉为“美国人宗教价值的引路人”)通过“否认失败”而获得成功的信条的终身崇拜。
一群共和党领导人也开始和民主党人一样,对特朗普缺席关键的总统性职务及否认选举结果感到愤怒。但是,特朗普的种种举动,包括对反对他的国家安全官员进行的报复性的大清洗,还有其他各类专横独断行为,都与此前的“暴君”相吻合。许多人认为,他的行为已经和尼禄皇帝眼睁睁看着罗马城陷入火海而无动于衷没什么差别。
在我看来,这是特朗普的常规操作。据我所知,我认识特朗普总统的时间比在内阁中任职的任何人都长,也比除了他家庭成员以外的其他顾问任职的时间都要长。作为16年前特朗普的电视剧《学徒》的第一批批评家之一,我为《华尔街日报》撰写了题为“末代皇帝”的专栏文章。这篇评论使特朗普尤为愤怒,因为它揭示了特朗普惯常使用的、其实很简单的小花招,而他的盟友和对手却仍在破译。我给特朗普贴上了一个罗马皇帝的标签,即他以煽动角斗士们之间的战斗为幌子,转移人们的视线。
这种“分而取之”的策略增加了和他有关的事件的戏剧性,同时借助人们为他加冕的帝国光环,特朗普便免除了亲自为这些事件添上某种实质性价值的负担。特朗普抨击了我的评论后,我后面又在2004年发表于《华尔街日报》的信中警告人们,如果有一天特朗普当选美国总统,他将很难控制自己不向联邦调查局和中央情报局开火——如果他们揭发真相的话。
十年后,当他考虑竞选总统时,特朗普向我咨询,我告诉他,我认为他的支持率会稳定在15%。他回答说,梅拉尼亚向他保证他会赢。在竞选初期,他继续与我确认有关自己竞选的情况,而不顾我对初选中他带有种族主义色彩的论调的担忧。特朗普坚持认为,正是这种争议确保了他能免费获得媒体的报道,并为他吸引新的选民。他表示自己没有曾经的共和党总统候选人约翰·麦凯恩那样的义务,谴责自己阵营中的其他人发表种族主义言论:他声称,如果自己不发表意见,他就没有义务管别人。
为了反对在他2015年初选时对他嗤之以鼻的共和党竞争对手,我是最早几个发文建议人们“认真对待特朗普竞选总统”的人之一,因为他已经触及了美国人的神经。在《财富》杂志的独家专访中,我指出了共和党内“特朗普下台”的战略将如何失败,以及他将如何以“商业巨头”的身份为自己代言——即使没有一个顶级的商业领袖和他有私下的来往,也不尊重他。
众所周知,2016年,特朗普赢了。此前无视他的顶尖商业领袖在选举后开始加入他的阵营,将他视为放开监管和减免税收的有用工具人。为了能和这些商业领袖互惠互利,特朗普渴望他们能更明确对其仍有些模棱两可的认可,并在其CEO顾问委员会的例会上向他们表达了自己的观点。同时,他也知道这群人对他不满。因此,他恢复了自己早期职业生涯中“分而治之”的方法,开始挑拨福特和通用汽车,波音与洛克希德·马丁之间;辉瑞与默克等同行业的公司之间展开竞争。同样,他还挑起了共和党人与民主党人之间的斗争,煽动自己的顾问之间进行斗争,甚至试图这种斗争扩大到法国对德国,墨西哥对加拿大,俄罗斯对中国。
这些转移注意力的策略表明了他为了向上爬而冷库无情的帝国主义统治,但在特朗普下台后,这种局面并不会顺利结束。在我对领导者职业生涯后期的研究(名为《英雄的告别》)中,我考察了各行各业高层领导者离职时的风格——这些人认为,无论自己在现实中是多么或邪恶,他们对世界来说都是必不可少的。在这些“君主式”人物的离任风格中,一种无论是死于公职,还是因宫中发生起义而被撤职,但始终是先行先出。而另一种,由于害怕潜在的继任者力量过于强大,自甘被谄媚者包围,并在和这些人的接触中,产生了心理学家所说的“诱发型妄想障碍”(folie a deux)。
这些领导者会越来越迷信自己为自己创造出的神话。此前,从来没有人称马其顿的亚历山大三世为“亚历山大大帝”,直到他自己发明了一整套奥德修斯和阿喀琉斯的神话世系,并这么称呼自己。这些人对超凡的神话身份和对永生不朽的追求,为其孜孜不倦地追求君主的地位创造了难以捉摸的目标。
就在2016年大选之后,获胜的特朗普透露,他最喜欢的两部电影是《公民凯恩》和《日落大道》。这两部电影都描绘了那些追名逐利,热衷剥削,极端自恋者的职业生涯行至末路时的崩溃,众叛亲离后独自一人退缩到自己荒唐而奢华的宫殿之中——好事的媒体大亨查尔斯·福斯特·凯恩为自己失去公众的支持感到愤怒,堕落的默片影星诺拉·戴斯蒙德为自己失去对观众的吸引力感到愤怒。
通过他们愤怒狂躁,自我毁灭式的冲动,两个角色都亲手缔造了自己不幸的命运。他们陷入困境,遭遇背叛,却从不肯认清现实,而是沉溺于幻想中。凯恩对着那些助他上位的人发泄自己丧失公众信任的怒气,告诉他们,“我让人们怎么想,他们就会怎么想”。诺拉·戴斯蒙德喊道:“哦,那些白痴的制作人。那些卑鄙的人!他们没有眼睛吗?他们已经忘了我这个大明星长什么样了吗?我要让他们看到,我一定会东山再起的,所以帮帮我吧!”
那些君主式的人物,他们都没有体面的收场。皇帝被剥夺了王权,直到最后都在负隅顽抗,企图煽动内斗,破坏其继任者的合法地位。当特朗普这位“学徒”变身为最大的失败者时,请准备好迎接该系列的续集:特朗普在电视上日常上演着咆哮的戏码。(财富中文网)
作者Jeffrey Sonnenfeld是耶鲁大学管理学院高级副院长兼莱斯特克朗管理实践教授。著有《英雄的永别》(牛津大学出版社)。
编译:陈聪聪
在连任失败成为不争的事实后,这三周,特朗普就从公共视野中消失了——他以总统身份出席的公共活动一直是空白。这意味着他的日子充斥着忧思、电视和高尔夫,而一切都表示他拒绝承认失败。他继续罔顾不断恶化的疫情,将感染人数往低了报,尽管美国的死亡病例已达260,000——最近,每两天新增的感染人数和9/11罹难者的数目相当。在特朗普的所作所为中,他似乎是在践行着自己对诺曼·文森特·皮尔(Norman Vincent Peale,著名牧师、演讲家,被誉为“美国人宗教价值的引路人”)通过“否认失败”而获得成功的信条的终身崇拜。
一群共和党领导人也开始和民主党人一样,对特朗普缺席关键的总统性职务及否认选举结果感到愤怒。但是,特朗普的种种举动,包括对反对他的国家安全官员进行的报复性的大清洗,还有其他各类专横独断行为,都与此前的“暴君”相吻合。许多人认为,他的行为已经和尼禄皇帝眼睁睁看着罗马城陷入火海而无动于衷没什么差别。
在我看来,这是特朗普的常规操作。据我所知,我认识特朗普总统的时间比在内阁中任职的任何人都长,也比除了他家庭成员以外的其他顾问任职的时间都要长。作为16年前特朗普的电视剧《学徒》的第一批批评家之一,我为《华尔街日报》撰写了题为“末代皇帝”的专栏文章。这篇评论使特朗普尤为愤怒,因为它揭示了特朗普惯常使用的、其实很简单的小花招,而他的盟友和对手却仍在破译。我给特朗普贴上了一个罗马皇帝的标签,即他以煽动角斗士们之间的战斗为幌子,转移人们的视线。
这种“分而取之”的策略增加了和他有关的事件的戏剧性,同时借助人们为他加冕的帝国光环,特朗普便免除了亲自为这些事件添上某种实质性价值的负担。特朗普抨击了我的评论后,我后面又在2004年发表于《华尔街日报》的信中警告人们,如果有一天特朗普当选美国总统,他将很难控制自己不向联邦调查局和中央情报局开火——如果他们揭发真相的话。
十年后,当他考虑竞选总统时,特朗普向我咨询,我告诉他,我认为他的支持率会稳定在15%。他回答说,梅拉尼亚向他保证他会赢。在竞选初期,他继续与我确认有关自己竞选的情况,而不顾我对初选中他带有种族主义色彩的论调的担忧。特朗普坚持认为,正是这种争议确保了他能免费获得媒体的报道,并为他吸引新的选民。他表示自己没有曾经的共和党总统候选人约翰·麦凯恩那样的义务,谴责自己阵营中的其他人发表种族主义言论:他声称,如果自己不发表意见,他就没有义务管别人。
为了反对在他2015年初选时对他嗤之以鼻的共和党竞争对手,我是最早几个发文建议人们“认真对待特朗普竞选总统”的人之一,因为他已经触及了美国人的神经。在《财富》杂志的独家专访中,我指出了共和党内“特朗普下台”的战略将如何失败,以及他将如何以“商业巨头”的身份为自己代言——即使没有一个顶级的商业领袖和他有私下的来往,也不尊重他。
众所周知,2016年,特朗普赢了。此前无视他的顶尖商业领袖在选举后开始加入他的阵营,将他视为放开监管和减免税收的有用工具人。为了能和这些商业领袖互惠互利,特朗普渴望他们能更明确对其仍有些模棱两可的认可,并在其CEO顾问委员会的例会上向他们表达了自己的观点。同时,他也知道这群人对他不满。因此,他恢复了自己早期职业生涯中“分而治之”的方法,开始挑拨福特和通用汽车,波音与洛克希德·马丁之间;辉瑞与默克等同行业的公司之间展开竞争。同样,他还挑起了共和党人与民主党人之间的斗争,煽动自己的顾问之间进行斗争,甚至试图这种斗争扩大到法国对德国,墨西哥对加拿大,俄罗斯对中国。
这些转移注意力的策略表明了他为了向上爬而冷库无情的帝国主义统治,但在特朗普下台后,这种局面并不会顺利结束。在我对领导者职业生涯后期的研究(名为《英雄的告别》)中,我考察了各行各业高层领导者离职时的风格——这些人认为,无论自己在现实中是多么或邪恶,他们对世界来说都是必不可少的。在这些“君主式”人物的离任风格中,一种无论是死于公职,还是因宫中发生起义而被撤职,但始终是先行先出。而另一种,由于害怕潜在的继任者力量过于强大,自甘被谄媚者包围,并在和这些人的接触中,产生了心理学家所说的“诱发型妄想障碍”(folie a deux)。
这些领导者会越来越迷信自己为自己创造出的神话。此前,从来没有人称马其顿的亚历山大三世为“亚历山大大帝”,直到他自己发明了一整套奥德修斯和阿喀琉斯的神话世系,并这么称呼自己。这些人对超凡的神话身份和对永生不朽的追求,为其孜孜不倦地追求君主的地位创造了难以捉摸的目标。
就在2016年大选之后,获胜的特朗普透露,他最喜欢的两部电影是《公民凯恩》和《日落大道》。这两部电影都描绘了那些追名逐利,热衷剥削,极端自恋者的职业生涯行至末路时的崩溃,众叛亲离后独自一人退缩到自己荒唐而奢华的宫殿之中——好事的媒体大亨查尔斯·福斯特·凯恩为自己失去公众的支持感到愤怒,堕落的默片影星诺拉·戴斯蒙德为自己失去对观众的吸引力感到愤怒。
通过他们愤怒狂躁,自我毁灭式的冲动,两个角色都亲手缔造了自己不幸的命运。他们陷入困境,遭遇背叛,却从不肯认清现实,而是沉溺于幻想中。凯恩对着那些助他上位的人发泄自己丧失公众信任的怒气,告诉他们,“我让人们怎么想,他们就会怎么想”。诺拉·戴斯蒙德喊道:“哦,那些白痴的制作人。那些卑鄙的人!他们没有眼睛吗?他们已经忘了我这个大明星长什么样了吗?我要让他们看到,我一定会东山再起的,所以帮帮我吧!”
那些君主式的人物,他们都没有体面的收场。皇帝被剥夺了王权,直到最后都在负隅顽抗,企图煽动内斗,破坏其继任者的合法地位。当特朗普这位“学徒”变身为最大的失败者时,请准备好迎接该系列的续集:特朗普在电视上日常上演着咆哮的戏码。(财富中文网)
作者Jeffrey Sonnenfeld是耶鲁大学管理学院高级副院长兼莱斯特克朗管理实践教授。著有《英雄的永别》(牛津大学出版社)。
编译:陈聪聪
With the president hidden from public contact in the three weeks since he decisively lost reelection, President Trump’s public calendar has been blank. The emptiness implies that his days have been filled with brooding, TV, and golfing, all while refusing to concede defeat. He has continued to minimize the soaring pandemic, whose U.S. death toll has reached 260,000—lately claiming a 9/11-sized number of victims every two days. In Trump’s behavior, there appears an extension of his lifelong worship of Norman Vincent Peale’s theology of success through denial of failures.
A chorus of GOP leaders have begun joining Democrats outraged over the President’s absence from key duties and his denial of the election realities. But Trump’s conduct, along with his vindictive housecleaning of national security officials who countered him, is consistent with the tyrannical tantrums of other would-be monarchs. Many have drawn the parallel to Emperor Nero supposedly fiddling as Rome burned.
To me, it’s familiar behavior. As far as I know, I have known President Trump longer than anyone who has served on his cabinet and longer than any of his non-family advisors. As one of the first published critics of Trump’s TV series The Apprentice sixteen years ago, I wrote a Wall Street Journal column entitled “The Last Emperor.” This review particularly infuriated Trump as it revealed his simplistic modus operandi, which his allies and adversaries are still deciphering. I labelled Trump akin to a Roman emperor, relishing the fight he instigated among his gladiators as distractions.
Such divide-and-conquer tactics elevated the drama around him, while insulating Trump with an artificial imperial aura that freed him from the burden of adding substantive value himself. After Trump criticized my review, I warned in a follow-up 2004 Wall Street Journal letter that if he were ever elected President of the United States, Trump would be tempted to fire the FBI and CIA directors for being truth-tellers.
A decade later, when he considered running for President, Trump consulted with me, and I advised him that I thought his support would plateau at 15%. He replied that Melania assured him he would win. He continued checking with me throughout the early days of his campaign, dismissive of my concerns about the racial overtones of his message in the primaries. Trump insisted the controversy ensured free media coverage while recruiting new voters. He felt no “John McCain Moment” obligation to condemn racist statements made by others at his rallies, claiming he had no duty if he did not voice them.
Countering his 2015 Republican rivals who scoffed at his primary campaign, I published some of the first articles suggesting people take Trump’s candidacy seriously, as he had touched nerves in the American psyche. In exclusive Fortune interviews, I pointed out how the Republican Party’s “dump Trump” strategy would fail and how he would represent himself as a business titan, even though no top business leaders knew him personally nor respected him professionally.
Trump won, as well all know. Top business leaders who had walked out on him earlier rallied behind him post-election, viewing him as a useful instrument for regulatory rollbacks and tax relief. Reciprocally, Trump coveted their elusive acceptance, showcasing them at ceremonial meetings of his CEO advisory councils. At the same time, he also knew they resented him. So he reverted to his divide-and-conquer methods from his earlier career—setting up competitions of Ford vs. General Motors; Boeing vs. Lockheed Martin; Pfizer vs. Merck, et cetera. In the same vein, he would set up Republican legislators to fight with Democrats as well as each other, inflame battles among his own advisors, and even attempt to position France against Germany, Mexico against Canada, and Russia against China.
These diversionary tactics defined his ruthless climb and his brutal imperial rein, but they do not smooth his exit. In my study of leaders in late career, entitled The Hero’s Farewell, I examine the departure styles of top leaders across sectors who see themselves as indispensable to the world no matter how truly noble or wicked they were in reality. One type, the Monarch, either dies in office or is removed through a palace revolt–but always makes a feet-first exit. Fearing prospective strong successors, Monarchs surrounded themselves with weak sycophants in what psychoanalysts call a folie a deux, or a shared delusion.
These leaders come to believe in the myths they manufacture about themselves. No one called Alexander III of Macedonia “Alexander the Great” until he created the label himself, inventing a mythic lineage to Odysseus and Achilles. Their transcendent mythic identities and quixotic quests for immortality create elusive goals for these perpeturally grasping monarchs.
Immediately post-election 2016, then-President-elect Trump revealed that his two favorite films are Citizen Kane and Sunset Boulevard. Both films depict the late career collapse of mercurial, exploitive, extreme narcissists who retreat into the isolation of their grotesquely excessive palaces. The demagogic media baron Charles Foster Kane was furious over his lost public support. Fallen silent screen star Nora Desmond was furious over her lost audience appeal.
Through their angry, self-destructive impulses, both characters were the architects of their own misfortunes. Feeling trapped and cheated, they never conceded to their fates, retreating to delusion in seclusion. Kane barked at his enablers about the loss of public trust, telling them that people will think "what I tell them to think." Nora Desmond shouted defiantly, “Oh, those idiot producers. Those imbeciles! Haven’t they got any eyes? Have they forgotten what a star looks like? I’ll show them. I’ll be up there again! So help me!”
There was no graceful retirement for Ferdinand Marcos. Stripped of their regalia, emperors are defiant until the end—attempting to instigate infighting and undermine the legitimacy of their successors. As The Apprentice morphs into The Biggest Loser, prepare for the sequel series: daily rants on TrumpTV.
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is senior associate dean and Lester Crown Professor of Management Practice at the Yale School of Management. He is the author of The Hero’s Farewell (Oxford University Press).