远程工作的出现标志着深刻的城市经济变革的开始——在新冠疫情最严重时期引发的居家办公革命过去很久之后,这种变革可能还会持续上演。
新冠疫情导致大规模的人口逃离城市中心,因为远程工作让员工能够把价格高昂的小公寓换成面积更大、更便宜的郊区住宅。根据美国人口普查局(United States Census Bureau)的数据,自新冠疫情爆发以来,远程工作的人的比例增加了两倍,从2019年的5.7%上升到2021年的17.9%。
虽然关于重返办公室办公的争论仍在继续,但争论的分歧点在于许多员工依然希望可以选择至少部分时间居家办公。但远程工作的持久性也对未来的城市产生了重大影响,因为消费者的消费中心正在从商业中心转移,而这种转移可能是永久性的。
世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)于11月28日发布的一份报告显示,随着员工居家办公的时间增多、在办公室办公的时间减少,包括咖啡店、餐馆、出租车公司、理发店和健身房在内的城市企业客流量明显减少,消费也明显下降。
这份报告称,通勤率下降了20%的城市社区,员工在当地企业的消费平均已经下降了7%。报告的作者包括五位来自英国大学的经济学家,他们在新冠疫情爆发后的大部分时间里一直在研究远程工作。
自2021年1月以来,研究人员调查了3.5万多名英国员工,并将调查结果与新冠疫情前和新冠疫情期间零售业和酒店业的特定地点消费数据相结合。
传统上,城市中心的许多服务都是为通勤者提供的,因此,调查结果表明,这些行业对员工的需求将从商业区转移到郊区,这可能是一大永久性的变化。
重塑城市
和美国一样,英国公司也一直在应对新冠疫情期间远程工作受欢迎程度激增的问题。报告发现,在新冠疫情爆发之前,只有不到5%的工作是远程完成的,而现在这一比例超过了45%。
尽管远程工作者的数量可能在未来几个月和几年里趋于平稳,但作者估计,长久来看,远程工作的比率仍将比新冠疫情前高出20个百分点,这将对未来的城市产生重大影响。
该研究发现,在新冠疫情期间,本地个人服务(LPS,直接为特定地理区域的人们提供服务的企业)在城市商业中心的需求急剧下降,因为员工们开始在郊区社区和城市以外的地区花费更多的钱。
作者发现,在新冠疫情期间,城市商业区的本地个人服务工作岗位大幅减少。但与此同时,在许多郊区,相同行业的职位空缺却有所增加。例如,根据该研究,伦敦市中心一个拥有近1万人口的社区预计将失去8,000个本地个人服务工作岗位。与此同时,作者观察到161个郊区社区的本地个人服务职位空缺数量出现了“相应的”增长。
“甜甜圈效应”
作者将此称为所谓的甜甜圈效应,经济学家已经在美国的几个城市观察到这种效应,因为消费模式从金融区转移到城市之外。
“我们发现甜甜圈效应现象也在英国出现,主要城市地区的员工在中央商务区办公的时间减少,而在郊区住宅区办公的时间增多。这将对本地服务的消费地产生影响。”作者写道。
一些曾经依赖办公室员工的城市社区可能会出现永久性的变化。该研究显示,伦敦金融城本地个人服务企业90%的营收来自上班族。
不过,尽管本地个人服务的工作岗位预计会向郊区转移,但该研究的作者警告说,这种过渡不会是无缝衔接的。他们指出,与市中心相比,郊区的大多数本地个人服务企业缺乏足够的场地,而且在富裕郊区工作,拿低工资的本地个人服务员工的生活成本差距更大。
在美国,随着大量员工逃离大城市,也出现了同样的趋势。斯坦福大学(Stanford University)在2021年的一项研究发现,大量员工从纽约市、芝加哥、华盛顿特区和旧金山涌出,引发了经济活动从市中心向郊区转移的甜甜圈效应。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
远程工作的出现标志着深刻的城市经济变革的开始——在新冠疫情最严重时期引发的居家办公革命过去很久之后,这种变革可能还会持续上演。
新冠疫情导致大规模的人口逃离城市中心,因为远程工作让员工能够把价格高昂的小公寓换成面积更大、更便宜的郊区住宅。根据美国人口普查局(United States Census Bureau)的数据,自新冠疫情爆发以来,远程工作的人的比例增加了两倍,从2019年的5.7%上升到2021年的17.9%。
虽然关于重返办公室办公的争论仍在继续,但争论的分歧点在于许多员工依然希望可以选择至少部分时间居家办公。但远程工作的持久性也对未来的城市产生了重大影响,因为消费者的消费中心正在从商业中心转移,而这种转移可能是永久性的。
世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)于11月28日发布的一份报告显示,随着员工居家办公的时间增多、在办公室办公的时间减少,包括咖啡店、餐馆、出租车公司、理发店和健身房在内的城市企业客流量明显减少,消费也明显下降。
这份报告称,通勤率下降了20%的城市社区,员工在当地企业的消费平均已经下降了7%。报告的作者包括五位来自英国大学的经济学家,他们在新冠疫情爆发后的大部分时间里一直在研究远程工作。
自2021年1月以来,研究人员调查了3.5万多名英国员工,并将调查结果与新冠疫情前和新冠疫情期间零售业和酒店业的特定地点消费数据相结合。
传统上,城市中心的许多服务都是为通勤者提供的,因此,调查结果表明,这些行业对员工的需求将从商业区转移到郊区,这可能是一大永久性的变化。
重塑城市
和美国一样,英国公司也一直在应对新冠疫情期间远程工作受欢迎程度激增的问题。报告发现,在新冠疫情爆发之前,只有不到5%的工作是远程完成的,而现在这一比例超过了45%。
尽管远程工作者的数量可能在未来几个月和几年里趋于平稳,但作者估计,长久来看,远程工作的比率仍将比新冠疫情前高出20个百分点,这将对未来的城市产生重大影响。
该研究发现,在新冠疫情期间,本地个人服务(LPS,直接为特定地理区域的人们提供服务的企业)在城市商业中心的需求急剧下降,因为员工们开始在郊区社区和城市以外的地区花费更多的钱。
作者发现,在新冠疫情期间,城市商业区的本地个人服务工作岗位大幅减少。但与此同时,在许多郊区,相同行业的职位空缺却有所增加。例如,根据该研究,伦敦市中心一个拥有近1万人口的社区预计将失去8,000个本地个人服务工作岗位。与此同时,作者观察到161个郊区社区的本地个人服务职位空缺数量出现了“相应的”增长。
“甜甜圈效应”
作者将此称为所谓的甜甜圈效应,经济学家已经在美国的几个城市观察到这种效应,因为消费模式从金融区转移到城市之外。
“我们发现甜甜圈效应现象也在英国出现,主要城市地区的员工在中央商务区办公的时间减少,而在郊区住宅区办公的时间增多。这将对本地服务的消费地产生影响。”作者写道。
一些曾经依赖办公室员工的城市社区可能会出现永久性的变化。该研究显示,伦敦金融城本地个人服务企业90%的营收来自上班族。
不过,尽管本地个人服务的工作岗位预计会向郊区转移,但该研究的作者警告说,这种过渡不会是无缝衔接的。他们指出,与市中心相比,郊区的大多数本地个人服务企业缺乏足够的场地,而且在富裕郊区工作,拿低工资的本地个人服务员工的生活成本差距更大。
在美国,随着大量员工逃离大城市,也出现了同样的趋势。斯坦福大学(Stanford University)在2021年的一项研究发现,大量员工从纽约市、芝加哥、华盛顿特区和旧金山涌出,引发了经济活动从市中心向郊区转移的甜甜圈效应。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
The advent of remote work marked the beginning of a profound transformation in cities’ economies—changes that are likely to continue to play out long after the worst of the pandemic that sparked the work-from-home revolution is over.
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a massive exodus from city centers, as remote work allowed employees to trade in small expensive apartments for larger, cheaper suburban homes. In the U.S., the percentage of people working remotely has tripled since the pandemic began, rising from 5.7% of the workforce in 2019 to 17.9% in 2021, according to Census data.
While the debate over returning to the office continues to rage, the option to work from home at least part of the time continues to be a sticking point for many employees. But the staying power of remote work also has big implications for the future of cities as the epicenter of consumer spending shifts away from business centers, potentially for good.
As employees spend more time at home and less time in the office, urban businesses including coffee shops, restaurants, taxi companies, barbershops, and gyms are seeing significantly less traffic and lower spending, according to a report published on November 28 by the World Economic Forum.
City neighborhoods where commuting rates have fallen by 20% are already seeing a decline of 7% on average in spending toward local businesses, according to the report, whose authors include five economists from U.K. universities who have been studying remote work for most of the pandemic.
Researchers surveyed more than 35,000 U.K. workers since January of last year and combined the results with location-specific spending data in retail and hospitality before and during the pandemic.
With many services in city centers traditionally designed for commuters, the results suggest that the demand for workers in these sectors is set to shift away from business districts and toward the suburbs, a likely permanent change.
Cities reshaped
Like the U.S., companies in the U.K. have been dealing with a surge in remote work’s popularity during the pandemic. The report found that less than 5% of work was done remotely before the pandemic, compared to more than 45% now.
While the number of remote workers is likely to level off somewhat in the coming months and years, the authors estimate that the permanent rate of remote working will still be 20 percentage points higher than before the pandemic, which will have big implications for the future of cities.
Local personal services—or LPS, businesses that cater directly to people in a specific geographic area—have seen a steep drop in demand in urban business centers during the pandemic, the study found, as workers began spending more money in suburban neighborhoods and areas outside the city.
LPS jobs in cities’ business districts have shrunk dramatically during the pandemic, the authors found. But at the same time, job openings in the same sectors have grown in many suburban areas. For instance, one neighborhood in central London with a population of nearly 10,000 is slated to lose 8,000 LPS jobs, according to the study. At the same time, the authors observed an “equivalent” increase in the number of LPS job openings in 161 suburban neighborhoods.
The “doughnut effect”
The authors referred to this as the so-called doughnut effect, which economists have already observed in several U.S. cities, as spending patterns shift away from financial districts out of the city.
“We find the doughnut effect to be a U.K. phenomenon, too, with workers in major urban areas spending less time in the central business district and more time in residential suburbs. This will have consequences for where spending on local services takes place,” the authors wrote.
Some city neighborhoods where businesses were once reliant on in-office workers are likely to see permanent changes. In the City of London, for instance, the capital’s financial epicenter, 90% of spending on LPS businesses came from commuters, according to the study.
But while LPS jobs are expected to migrate toward the suburbs, the study’s authors warned that the transition won’t be seamless. They noted the scarcity of adequate venues for most LPS businesses in the suburbs compared to city centers, as well as bigger disparities between the cost of living for low-wage LPS workers in affluent suburbs.
In the U.S., the same trends have been observed as workers have streamed out of major cities. A 2021 study from Stanford University found that employee outpours from New York City, Chicago, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco prompted a doughnut effect of economic activity moving out of city centers and toward suburbs.