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远程办公提高生活优渥的受教育女性的生育率

Chloe Berger
2023-03-13

早期研究表明,远程办公者比现场办公者更容易组建家庭,并且可以与家人建立更亲密的联系。

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期待女性事业家庭两不误,就像运动服里的肩垫一样已经过时,但远程办公似乎让职场女性能够拥有更多,那就是相比在办公室办公,她们可以拥有平衡发展事业和照顾子女的自由与灵活性。

两党倡议组织经济创新集团(Economic Innovation Group)的最新分析报告,总结了远程办公对组建家庭的好处。研究人员根据2022年的两次人口情报家庭调查(Demographic Intelligence Family Survey),研究了3,000位18岁至44岁的美国女性对于家庭和生育的展望。

他们发现,至少部分远程办公的女性怀孕或尝试怀孕的概率为16.7%,而非远程办公的女性概率只有13.7%。严重的生育低谷,令埃隆·马斯克等评论者忧心忡忡。但远程办公可能为千禧一代父母的生育高峰奠定基础。千禧一代恰好是在二战后生育高峰起出生的一代人,因此他们的父母得到了婴儿潮一代父母的称号。

美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)发布的工作报告显示,2021年美国婴儿出生率提高,这是自大衰退(Great Recession)以来出生率首次大幅度逆转。增长的趋势在30岁至34岁的女性和大学毕业的女性当中尤为显著,这两个群体都更容易获得职业安全,并且有更大的可能从事远程办公。美国国家经济研究局的研究人员认为,这两个因素使她们更容易孕育子女。

这种趋势与新冠疫情初期相比出现了明显逆转。当时,美国的出生率延续了疫情之前的趋势,创历史新低;在大衰退期间出生率下降,并且由于多个因素的影响,出生率始终低迷,其中最主要的原因是令人难以承受的儿童护理成本。美国进步智库人民政策项目(People’s Policy Project)的律师及创始人马特·布吕尼希指出,出生率下降的另外一个原因是与前几代人相比,女性生育年龄更晚,或者生育子女数量更少。

经济创新集团分析报告的作者莱曼·斯通和亚当·厄兹梅克的立场较为中立。他们表示:“虽然发达国家的出生率长期下降,让我们很难对未来的人口出生趋势感到乐观,但远程办公兴起等因素,至少在某些群体,似乎出现了相反趋势。”

过去一年,远程办公且财务状况显著改善的女性,比非远程办公女性怀孕或尝试怀孕的比例高10个百分点。在财务状况稳定或恶化的女性中,远程办公和非远程办公的群体之间没有区别。

经济创新集团分析报告的作者对《财富》杂志解释称:“重要的是我们衡量财富水平时参照的是在过去一年家庭财务状况‘大幅好转’的女性,其中可能包括来自不同收入阶层的女性。虽然我们没有进行直接研究,但受教育程度和收入水平更高的女性更有可能有机会远程办公。因此,我们预计整体上来说,远程办公对高收入家庭更有好处。”

远程办公对已经生育和35岁以上女性的家庭规划有更大的影响(对39岁以上女性的影响更明显)。报告作者写道:“换言之,远程办公并不一定会促使女性生育,但可能有助于年龄较大的女性平衡工作和家庭的需求,从而实现家庭目标。”

但远程办公不止影响女性的生育,还有婚姻。未婚远程办公者(22%)比现场办公者(15.7%)更有可能在来年结婚。研究人员将其归因于远程办公者更高的迁移率,他们猜测远程办公可能消除了地理意义上的流动性问题,或者因为地理位置伴侣需要为对方牺牲自己的事业等问题。这会减少情侣关系中存在的困难,为远程办公者步入婚姻殿堂扫清道路。

另外一个可能的原因是,远程办公者避免了令人讨厌的通勤,每天多出72分钟的时间陪伴伴侣和培养双方的关系,或者有更多时间陪伴家人。数据显示,远程办公者能够拿出更多时间照顾子女,这也解释了为什么她们更倾向于生育。地理位置的灵活性通常还与工作时间的灵活性挂钩,这对远程办公的家长而言也很有帮助。(非远程办公者缺乏这种自主权,再加上当前的儿童护理危机,导致人们选择离开劳动力队伍,尤以女性为主。)

研究人员还向受访女性询问,她们梦想的家庭与现实是否一致,包括她们的子女数量是否符合自己的预期。可以选择远程办公的女性对未来表示失望或给出负面评价的比例更低。

电影《打工女郎》(Working Girl)里的现代职业女性的兴起也可能发生在家中,因为远程办公可能是像梅拉妮·格里菲思一样的人乃至所有女性在职场大放异彩的途径之一。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

期待女性事业家庭两不误,就像运动服里的肩垫一样已经过时,但远程办公似乎让职场女性能够拥有更多,那就是相比在办公室办公,她们可以拥有平衡发展事业和照顾子女的自由与灵活性。

两党倡议组织经济创新集团(Economic Innovation Group)的最新分析报告,总结了远程办公对组建家庭的好处。研究人员根据2022年的两次人口情报家庭调查(Demographic Intelligence Family Survey),研究了3,000位18岁至44岁的美国女性对于家庭和生育的展望。

他们发现,至少部分远程办公的女性怀孕或尝试怀孕的概率为16.7%,而非远程办公的女性概率只有13.7%。严重的生育低谷,令埃隆·马斯克等评论者忧心忡忡。但远程办公可能为千禧一代父母的生育高峰奠定基础。千禧一代恰好是在二战后生育高峰起出生的一代人,因此他们的父母得到了婴儿潮一代父母的称号。

美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)发布的工作报告显示,2021年美国婴儿出生率提高,这是自大衰退(Great Recession)以来出生率首次大幅度逆转。增长的趋势在30岁至34岁的女性和大学毕业的女性当中尤为显著,这两个群体都更容易获得职业安全,并且有更大的可能从事远程办公。美国国家经济研究局的研究人员认为,这两个因素使她们更容易孕育子女。

这种趋势与新冠疫情初期相比出现了明显逆转。当时,美国的出生率延续了疫情之前的趋势,创历史新低;在大衰退期间出生率下降,并且由于多个因素的影响,出生率始终低迷,其中最主要的原因是令人难以承受的儿童护理成本。美国进步智库人民政策项目(People’s Policy Project)的律师及创始人马特·布吕尼希指出,出生率下降的另外一个原因是与前几代人相比,女性生育年龄更晚,或者生育子女数量更少。

经济创新集团分析报告的作者莱曼·斯通和亚当·厄兹梅克的立场较为中立。他们表示:“虽然发达国家的出生率长期下降,让我们很难对未来的人口出生趋势感到乐观,但远程办公兴起等因素,至少在某些群体,似乎出现了相反趋势。”

过去一年,远程办公且财务状况显著改善的女性,比非远程办公女性怀孕或尝试怀孕的比例高10个百分点。在财务状况稳定或恶化的女性中,远程办公和非远程办公的群体之间没有区别。

经济创新集团分析报告的作者对《财富》杂志解释称:“重要的是我们衡量财富水平时参照的是在过去一年家庭财务状况‘大幅好转’的女性,其中可能包括来自不同收入阶层的女性。虽然我们没有进行直接研究,但受教育程度和收入水平更高的女性更有可能有机会远程办公。因此,我们预计整体上来说,远程办公对高收入家庭更有好处。”

远程办公对已经生育和35岁以上女性的家庭规划有更大的影响(对39岁以上女性的影响更明显)。报告作者写道:“换言之,远程办公并不一定会促使女性生育,但可能有助于年龄较大的女性平衡工作和家庭的需求,从而实现家庭目标。”

但远程办公不止影响女性的生育,还有婚姻。未婚远程办公者(22%)比现场办公者(15.7%)更有可能在来年结婚。研究人员将其归因于远程办公者更高的迁移率,他们猜测远程办公可能消除了地理意义上的流动性问题,或者因为地理位置伴侣需要为对方牺牲自己的事业等问题。这会减少情侣关系中存在的困难,为远程办公者步入婚姻殿堂扫清道路。

另外一个可能的原因是,远程办公者避免了令人讨厌的通勤,每天多出72分钟的时间陪伴伴侣和培养双方的关系,或者有更多时间陪伴家人。数据显示,远程办公者能够拿出更多时间照顾子女,这也解释了为什么她们更倾向于生育。地理位置的灵活性通常还与工作时间的灵活性挂钩,这对远程办公的家长而言也很有帮助。(非远程办公者缺乏这种自主权,再加上当前的儿童护理危机,导致人们选择离开劳动力队伍,尤以女性为主。)

研究人员还向受访女性询问,她们梦想的家庭与现实是否一致,包括她们的子女数量是否符合自己的预期。可以选择远程办公的女性对未来表示失望或给出负面评价的比例更低。

电影《打工女郎》(Working Girl)里的现代职业女性的兴起也可能发生在家中,因为远程办公可能是像梅拉妮·格里菲思一样的人乃至所有女性在职场大放异彩的途径之一。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

The expectation that women must have and do it all is as outdated as shoulder pads on blazers, but it seems remote work can allow working women to have more: the freedom and flexibility to balance a career and children a bit better than the office ever did.

Remote work’s benefits for family formation comes from a new analysis by bipartisan advocacy organization Economic Innovation Group. The researchers looked at the family and fertility outlooks of 3,000 U.S. women ages 18 to 44 from two waves of a survey of the Demographic Intelligence Family Survey in 2022.

They found that the likelihood of getting pregnant or trying to become pregnant is 16.7% for women working at least partly remotely and 13.7% for women who aren’t working remotely at all. So much for the baby bust worrying some commentators such as Elon Musk. Instead, remote work could be laying the seeds for a millennial parent baby boom, fitting for the large generation that echoes the post-war boom that gave their boomer parents their nickname.

Also, 2021 saw a mini baby bump, the first major reversal in fertility rates since the Great Recession, according to a working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The bump was most pronounced for women aged 30 to 34 and college-educated women, both groups that had more access to job security and remote work, which the NBER researchers suggest help make it easier to have children.

This was a major reversal from the early years of the pandemic, when birth rates hit a record low, intensifying a pre-pandemic trend; birth rates declined during the Great Recession and continued to stagnate due to several factors, chief among them unaffordable childcare. Birth rates are also falling because women are having children at a later age or simply having fewer than they did in earlier eras, points out Matt Bruenig, lawyer and founder of progressive think tank People’s Policy Project.

The authors of the EIG report, Lyman Stone and Adam Ozimek, strike a balanced tone: “While the long-running decline of fertility rates across the developed world makes it difficult to be optimistic overall about the future trajectory of births, the rise of remote work is one factor that seems likely to help push in the other direction, at least in some subgroups of the population.”

Women working remotely whose finances significantly improved over the last year were 10 percentage points more likely than their non-remote counterparts to report being or trying to be pregnant. There was no difference between remote and non-remote female workers with stable or deteriorating financial situations.

“It’s important to understand that our measure of wealth is women whose household finances have gotten ‘much better’ in the past year, which can include women across the income spectrum,” the authors of the EIG paper explain to Fortune. “However, while we didn’t directly examine this, remote work is more available to women with greater education levels and income. As a result, we would expect it to benefit higher income families more overall.”

Remote work also has a stronger effect on family planning for women who already have kids and those over the age of 35 (and even more so for those over 39). “In other words, remote work doesn’t necessarily trigger women to initiate childbearing, but it may help older women balance the competing demands of work and family and thereby to achieve their family goals,” the authors write in the report.

But it’s not just about babies, it’s also about marriage. Unmarried remote workers (22%) are more likely to be married in the next year than their in-office peers (15.7%). The researchers attribute this to the higher migration rates among remote workers, and guess that remote work eliminates issues of geographic mobility or one partner having to sacrifice their career for their partners’ because of location. This all might lead to less difficulties in a relationship, and potentially pave the way for virtual workers walking down the aisle more.

It could also be that, without the pesky commute, remote workers have an extra 72 minutes a day to spend with their partners and grow their relationship, or more time to dedicate to their family. It certainly gives them more time to dedicate to childcare, data shows, which could also explain why they’re more inclined to have a child. Location flexibility is also often tied to schedule flexibility, which tends to be helpful for working parents. (A lack of such autonomy for non-remote workers, coupled with the ongoing childcare crisis, has been shown to push mostly women out of the workforce.)

Women were also asked if their dreams about what their family would look like lined up with their reality, including if they had the amount of children they expected. Women who had the option to work remotely were less likely to report being disappointed or negative about their future.

A modern revival of Working Girl might as well take place from home, because working remotely might just be the way for Melanie Griffith types and women in general to get ahead in the workforce.

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