星巴克扩张背后的隐忧

    星巴克公司（Starbucks）上周早些时候宣布，该公司计划斥资1亿美元收购面包连锁店La Boulange Bakery。2012年下半年，与这项收购相关的投资将使得该公司每股收益被稀释0.02美元，预计明年还会进一步稀释。

    La Boulange Bakery在旧金山湾区拥有19个零售网点，向该地区数家高档餐馆、酒店和特色杂货店出售产品。这次收购旨在改善星巴克连锁店提供的面包和点心，但在我们看来，它是霍华德•舒尔茨及其团队的一次豪赌。

    与去年末收购果汁制造商Evolution Fresh类似，这次收购同样是基于星巴克公司的“多渠道战略”，即通过全国性的门店网络引进一种新产品，等新产品的品牌知名度得到提升之后，再将其扩充至包装消费品渠道。这种战略背后的基础似乎是星巴克VIA即溶咖啡的成功。就La Boulange品牌产品来说，风险是，作为星巴克旗下的产品之一，VIA战略是成功的，但这种成功不一定就能移植到一个非星巴克品牌的产品上面。它要想获得全国消费者的认可需要花费的时间或许会长于预期。至于La Boulange产品的推出计划，星巴克公司仅仅表示，这些产品将在2013年首先出现在星巴克旧金山分店之中，最初将以糕点和面包类产品为主。

    尽管我们理解多渠道策略的吸引力，也可以看到潜在的好处，但如果历史可以提供借鉴的话，假设星巴克的所有举措都会成功却不太可能站得住脚。星巴克是一家令人印象深刻的公司，3年多来，我们一直在关注他们的股票。然而，这家公司似乎已经进入到一个投资阶段，这种局面的确会改变其股票的前景。同时推出两项重大举措（果汁和食品）增加了股票下挫的风险；就每股收益而言，营业收入增速放缓在未来造成的后果将大于过去几年。

    鉴于把产品引入店内所需的资本投资相对有限，Evolution Fresh战略虽然还没有获得验证，但很可能是个利好消息，短期内就会显现出积极的效果。将多渠道战略应用于食品领域意味着每股收益将在未来几年中面临更多的风险。另一个额外的风险是，星巴克公司在全美各地分店中迅速扩大La Boulange品牌产品供应，这一举动有可能危及La Boulange品牌迄今为止赖以安身立命、取得成功的完整性。

    根据星巴克管理层就此项收购案举行的电话会议，我们可以判断出La Boulange战略很可能需要星巴克公司方面投入巨额资金。未来几周内，更多细节将进一步明朗化，但我们目前认为，短期的投资很可能将是巨大的，而回报（或许也是巨大的，但这一点无法保证）或许需要数年时间方能实现。

    译者：任文科

    Starbucks announced earlier this week that it plans to purchase La Boulange Bakery for $100 million. Investments pertaining to the acquisition will dilute earnings by $0.02 per share in the second half of 2012, and further dilution is expected next year.

    La Boulange Bakery operates 19 retail locations in the San Francisco Bay area and sells its products to several upscale restaurants, hotels, and specialty grocery stores in the region. The acquisition is aimed at improving the baked goods that Starbucks (SBUX) offers within its stores and represents, in our view, a significant gamble on the part of Howard Schultz and his team.

    This move, along with the Evolution Fresh juice acquisition late last year, is based on Starbucks' "multi-channel strategy" of introducing a new product through the national network of stores and then expanding the offering into the consumer packaged goods channel once the brand gains traction. The rationale behind this strategy seems to be based on the success of the Starbucks VIA product. The risk, in the case of La Boulange products, is that the VIA strategy was successful as a Starbucks product, but that success may not transfer over to a non-Starbucks branded offering or that it may take longer than expected for the brand to resonate with consumers on a national level. In terms of the scheduled rollout of the La Boulange offering, the company only said that the products will first show up in Starbucks' San Francisco stores in 2013. The offerings will initially focus on pastries and bread.

    While we understand the appeal of the multi-channel strategy and can see the potential benefits, assuming that all of Starbucks' initiatives are going to be successful is unlikely to be the right stance, if history is any guide. Starbucks is an impressive organization and we have been behind the stock for over three years. However, the company seems to have entered into an investment phase and that does change the outlook for the stock. Entering into two significant initiatives (juice and food) at once increases the risk of setbacks for the stock; the consequences, for EPS, of any slowdown in the top line are larger going forward than they would have been over the past few years.

    The Evolution Fresh strategy, while still unproven, could be more of an immediate-term positive given the limited capital investment required to get the product into the stores. Applying the multi-channel strategy to food implies more risk to EPS over the next few years. There is also the additional risk that, in quickly scaling the La Boulange offerings across the domestic store base, the company may compromise the integrity of what made La Boulange successful to date.

    Based on the conference call about the acquisition held by management, our view is that the La Boulange strategy will likely require significant capital investment on the part of Starbucks. More detail will emerge in the coming weeks but currently we believe that the near-term investment could be significant and the reward, while possibly substantial but not guaranteed, could take years to materialize.