库克掌舵苹果这一年

    一年前的今天，斯蒂夫•乔布斯宣布辞去苹果（Apple）首席执行官一职。这本不应让人感到吃惊，但当时消息一出确实引发了不小的震动。苹果公司宣布，乔布斯将担任此前空缺的董事长一职。乔布斯仍将参与公司工作，他将作为指引公司方向的一盏明灯，但不再是亲自冲锋陷阵的执行者。是的，他们就是这样告诉我们的。乔布斯健康状况下滑时，蒂姆•库克这位出色但沉默寡言的首席营运官早已在掌管着苹果公司大部分的业务。因此，不会有太多改变。

    当时的这一说法基本上是对的，只是在一个关键点上有出入。没错，六周后乔布斯就病逝了。伴随着他的离世是席卷全球的哀痛、感人的员工追思会和一部全球畅销传记（传记里并不全是溢美之词）。苹果在乔布斯钦点人选的领导下，延续着原有的轨迹。这一年，苹果公司推出的产品基本上都属锦上添花，并非革命性产品。（iPhone 4S和“新”iPad都很难说给这个世界带来了什么改变。）高级管理层也一直基本保持稳定。公司利润持续激增。苹果著名的守口如瓶的运营方式继续飞速发展——尽管有些做法招致如潮批评，特别是在《纽约时报》（The New York Times）上。

    简言之，苹果总体上还是苹果。它没有犯错，还做出了一些改变。苹果开始支付股息了。模糊地感觉到苹果变得更加职业化了，因而神秘感也减少了。作为全球市值最高的公司而受到的审视和质疑，令苹果的光辉形象些许受到了些损害。

    眼前的挑战是如何理解这些改变。对苹果的分析已经到了条分缕析的地步，难以分清什么是真正的改变，什么是背景噪音。自以为有品位的广告界人士声称，史蒂夫•乔布斯绝不会批准苹果在伦敦奥运会期间投放的那则低劣且自降身份的“Genius”广告。行将末路？也许吧。但也许不会。距离上次苹果发布震撼人心的产品已经过了“很长”时间，这么说如今已成为风尚。从2007年iPhone发布到2010年iPad发布经历了三年时间。如今看来，苹果的电视产品——不管会成什么样——都还有一些时间。

    近来头脑有点乱的华尔街当然也不知道如何理解蒂姆•库克时代。乔布斯辞职那天，苹果股价收于374美元。7月末，这只股票的股价已经接近600美元，当苹果发布了令人失望的季度业绩后，股价被推低至570美元。自那以来没有实质性消息传出，投资者断定状况没那么糟。上周四该股收于662.63美元。在蒂姆•库克担任首席执行官的一年中，苹果股价上涨了77%——市值上涨超过2,700亿美元。令人称奇的是，按照任何通常标准，苹果股价看起来仍不贵，股价仅为华尔街今年预期每股收益的15倍。

    虽然投资者给库克打出了高分，雇员和合作伙伴也纷纷给予好评，但普遍看法是苹果当前的成功仍应归功于史蒂夫•乔布斯当初制定的计划。但很快，我们就将能够评判库克和高管团队（基本保持不变）这些人自己的表现了。（苹果零售部门负责人罗恩•约翰逊告诉乔布斯，他将离开公司到J.C. Penney任职，库克用欧洲零售业高级管理人士约翰•布劳威特填补了这一空缺。苹果硬件负责人鲍勃•曼斯费尔德最近宣布退休，他的副手接替了他的职位。）

    虽然Macintosh业务非常稳定，苹果总体上仍然是一家靠人气带动的公司。为了在庞大的规模之上继续增长，它需要不断地给顾客带来惊喜。循序渐进不能持续太长时间，每个人都期待蒂姆•库克最早于下个月就推出全新产品。一年带来了什么变化？后乔布斯之时代的苹果，一年的时间似乎还不足以看出什么改变。

    译者：早稻米

    It shouldn't have felt like a surprise, but it did, when the news broke a year ago today that Steve Jobs was stepping down as CEO of Apple. He was becoming chairman of the board, a previously unfilled position, Apple announced. Jobs would remain involved with the company, a guiding light rather than a hands-on taskmaster, we were led to believe. Tim Cook, the strong-but-silent chief operating officer, already had been running most of Apple as Jobs's health declined. So not much would change.

    That assessment, though wrong in one key respect, turned out to be largely true. Jobs, of course, died six weeks later. A global outpouring of grief, a heart-tugging employee celebration and aninternational best-selling (and not altogether flattering) biography heralded his passing. Yet Apple under the CEO Jobs hand-picked to succeed him has been the very definition of staying the course. The company's product introductions during the year have been incremental, not revolutionary. (The iPhone 4S and a "new," third-generation iPad hardly constitute putting a dent in the universe.) Senior management has been largely stable. Profits have continued to soar. Apple's (AAPL) infamously tight-lipped operation has continued apace -- despite a torrent of criticism over some of its practices, notably in The New York Times.

    In short, Apple by and large has continued to be Apple. Make no mistake, there have been changes. Apple now pays a dividend. There is a vague sense that the company has become more professional and therefore less magical. With the scrutiny of being the world's most valuable company come scratches on the shiny veneer.

    The challenge is what to make of the changes. Apple is so thoroughly analyzed that it becomes difficult to know what constitutes real change and what is background noise. Advertising snobs said Steve Jobs never would have approved the cheesy and demeaning "Genius" ads Apple ran during the London Olympics. A sign of the apocalypse? Maybe. But probably not. It has become fashionable to say a "long time" has passed since Apple released a mind-blowing product. Well, the gap between the iPhone in 2007 and the iPad in 2010 was three years.Apple's TV effort, whatever it's going to be, has some time left.

    Wall Street, hardly a model of clear thinking of late, certainly doesn't know what to make of the Tim Cook era. Apple's stock closed at $374 per share the day Jobs resigned. It was trading near $600 in late July, when Apple reported a disappointing quarter, sending the shares to $570. With no real news since, investors have decided the situation isn't so glum after all. Apple's stock closed Thursday at $662.63. That's an increase of 77% -- or more than $270 billion in market capitalization -- in the year Cook has been CEO. Amazingly, shares of Apple remain inexpensive by any normal standards at a multiple of 15 times Wall Street's estimates of current-year earnings.

    While Cook wins high marks from investors and generally favorable reviews from employees and partners, the conventional wisdom is that the current success of Apple continues to be attributable to the plans put in place by Steve Jobs. Soon enough, though, we'll be able to start judging on their own merits Cook and the team of senior managers he has largely held together. (Retail chief Ron Johnson told Jobs he was leaving for J.C. Penney (JCP), and Cook filled the spot with European retailing executive John Browett. Hardware boss Bob Mansfield recently announced his retirement and is being replaced by a lieutenant.)

    Apple, despite its annuity-like Macintosh division, is a hits-driven business. To grow at its massive scale it needs to continue to wow customers. Incrementalism won't cut it for long, and everyone expects Tim Cook to unveil brand-new gadgets as soon as next month. What difference does a year make? With Apple after Steve Jobs, it's probably not enough time to tell.