英特尔下任CEO必须走好4步棋

    谁有兴趣执掌一家年收入540亿美元的科技巨头？谁有办法让该公司再度出现增长？英特尔（Intel）正在物色新任首席执行官，在明年5月保罗·欧德宁卸任后执掌这家硅谷传奇企业。

    自欧德宁2005年担任英特尔首席执行官以来，该公司市值已经缩水22%。相比之下，纳斯达克指数在经济衰退中仍然上涨了52%。英特尔衰落的主要原因在于，随着移动设备不断侵蚀传统PC，处理器市场发生了巨大变化。过去十年，欧德宁的功绩在于带领英特尔在工程技术方面取得了很大进步，但他在预测技术界的广泛变革方面做得不够。

    曾经有一度，欧德宁似乎在带领英特尔不断壮大。虽然公司股价在2009年经济危机时期曾一度跌至12美元，但后来一路反弹。半年前，英特尔股价已经上涨到29美元。不过自那时起，平板电脑产业一路高歌猛进，对长期以来的微软（Microsoft）和英特尔双头垄断的冲击也日益显现，英特尔的股价也随后跌至20美元以下。

    英特尔一度曾经凭借运行Windows软件的个人电脑牢牢占据着芯片业霸主地位。不过时移境迁，ARM公司在移动设备领域的突飞猛进给英特尔带来巨大冲击。虽然英特尔试图向智能手机和平板电脑平台推广x86架构芯片，但其销量远远不及ARM架构的芯片。投资者们开始质疑，英特尔是否廉颇老矣？

    所以，欧德宁的继任者将面临严峻挑战。分析人士预计，英特尔营收在2012年将出现下滑，自2009年以来首次出现这种情况。英特尔每股盈利也会跌至2.11美元，下滑约12%。步入2013年，英特尔的颓势还将继续，每股盈利会进一步跌至1.95美元。不过，英特尔仍有不少办法扭转财务困境。下面是四条可行的途径：

    第一：拉拢苹果（Apple）。对于一家计算机公司而言，更换芯片架构是一个极具风险的重大决定。但苹果于2005年在台式机和笔记本电脑中引入了英特尔处理器。然而，假如Mac OS X与iOS结合——此刻看来，此举似乎势在必行，那么这一幕将重现。

    近来有传言称，苹果可能在Mac电脑中引入ARM处理器，虽然时间可能在数年之后。但反之也有可能。加拿大皇家银行（RBC）分析师道格·弗里德曼上周就在一项研究报告中写道，随着苹果不再将三星（Samsung）作为代工厂，苹果可能在下一代iPad中采用英特尔x86芯片。

    Anyone care to run an $54 billion-a-year tech giant? Anyone have any good ideas how to get it growing again? Intel is looking for a new CEO to take the reins at the Silicon Valley icon next May, when Paul Otellini steps down from the job.

    Since Otellini became CEO in May 2005, the stock has lost 22% of its value, against a 52% gain for a recession-challenged Nasdaq. Much of Intel's (INTC) decline has to do with secular changes in the market for processors as mobile devices have eaten into demand for PCs. Otellini's legacy is seen as strong on engineering advances but not so strong on anticipating the broad changes seen in the tech world over the past decade.

    For a while, Otellini looked to be managing Intel's growth well enough. After Intel's stock bottomed out at $12 a share in the recession of 2009, it rebounded to $29 a share six months ago. Since then, the toll that the tablet economy is having on the longtime WinTel PC monopoly has become more evident, and the stock has fallen back below $20 a share.

    Intel has gone from dominating the chips made in personal computers running Windows software to being threatened by ARM design chips, which dominate mobile devices. It's producing chips based on the x86 architecture for smartphones and tablets. But these aren't sellinganywhere nearly as well as ARM-based devices, and investors are starting to be concerned that time is running out.

    So Otellini's successor will face some daunting challenges. Analysts are expecting revenue to decline in 2012 for the first time since 2009 and earnings to fall by 12% to $2.11 a share. In 2013, they're expected to fall further -- to $1.95 a share. There are a few things, however, that Intel can do to get its financials growing again. Here are some possibilities:

    N0. 1 Keep Apple happy. Switching to a new chip architecture is a big and risky decision for a computer maker, but Apple (AAPL) moved to Intel processors for its desktops and laptops in 2005. But it's going to happen again if Mac OS X merges with iOS, which seems all but inevitable at this point.

    Recent rumors suggest Apple could move to ARM processors in its Mac computers, although that could take years. But the reverse could also happen. RBC analyst Doug Freedman wrote in a research note last week that Apple, as it moves from Samsung as a foundry, could opt for Intel's x86 chips in its next generation iPad.