共和党迎来新敌人：游击大师奥巴马

    奥巴马（Barack Obama）去年11月的大选中轻松获胜。上周他又在达成财政悬崖协议的过程中让共和党大败而归，并控制了本应由共和党掌握的众议院。现在，对脑门上似乎都印着“失败”二字而且公众支持率仍在下降的共和党议员们来说，可以期盼的就是在即将到来的一系列不受欢迎的议会争夺战中能够技高一筹。

    对奥巴马来说，成功连任后有一点已经不言而喻：那就是这位在2008年扮演和平使者的政治人物已经成了一名技巧高超的游击队员。如果说比尔•克林顿的战术遗产是通过窃取对手的点子来解除其武装，比如福利改革、“个人责任”和削减支出，奥巴马跟共和党交锋的战术遗产可能就是分而治之，逐个击破。

    共和党人一度最为善于抓住并利用敌人的弱点。而在奥巴马治下，作为李•艾特沃特美国政治家，以善于攻击对方著称——译注）的弟子，这些满嘴《孙子兵法》的共和党人遇到了对手。

    共和党人勇敢地把财政悬崖协议视为一场胜利——99%的布什减税政策得到了永久保留！但看看奥巴马的战果：一是福利改革方案获得通过（尽管债务/GDP比例对经济构成威胁，但现在该方案仍触及到了那些看来“不太可能”的领域）；二是大选年的公开胜利，这表明税收事关“公平”而非经济增长；三是一个将共和党一分为二的机会——其中一部分是担心因为经济一塌糊涂而背上骂名，另一部分则是怕失去保守派支持者。

    为奥巴马在财政悬崖问题上获胜埋下伏笔的是可能成为财政部长候选人的杰克•卢。2011年的债务上限磋商以税收和军费开支为主题，并未涉及福利改革，确保了共和党人针对国防预算采取行动。在接下来的一系列财政危机中，情况也会如此，而首当其冲的就是下个月要探讨的是否提高政府债务上限的问题。

    如果白宫不同意控制开支，共和党就可以威胁让政府关门大吉。但正如财政悬崖谈判期间的民意调查结果以及1994年美国政府暂停运作时出现的情况一样——共和党会受到公众的口诛笔伐。已经出现的情况是，奥巴马的行为正像一个知道自己占了上风的总统——他告诉众议院议长“开支不是问题”，同时表示，他希望通过限制减税额度来增加税收。

    Barack Obama handily won the November election. He cleaned the GOP's clock in last week's fiscal-cliff deal, seizing control of a supposedly Republican-controlled House. Now congressional Republicans, with a co-joined L on their foreheads and still leaking public support, can look forward to being out-maneuvered in an unwelcome string of upcoming legislative brawls.

    As President Obama approaches his second inaugural, one thing has become clear: The 2008 peacemaker politician has emerged as a skilled guerrilla warrior. If Bill Clinton's tactical legacy was disarming his opponents by stealing their ideas -- welfare reform, "personal responsibility," cutting spending -- Obama's may be his skill at dividing to conquer his Republican foes.

    Conservatives were once the reigning champs of honing in and exploiting an opponent's weakness. Under this President, Lee Atwater's Sun-Tzu quoting descendants have met their match.

    Republicans are gamely trying to spin the fiscal cliff deal as a victory -- 99% of the Bush tax cuts enshrined as permanent! But here's what Obama got: A pass on entitlement reform (which now recedes to the "unlikely" category even as debt-to-GDP ratios threaten the economy); the public triumph of his election-year narrative that taxes are about "fairness" not economic growth; and a chance to divide Republican ranks between those fearful of being blamed for economic chaos and those fearful of losing conservative supporters.

    The landmines of Obama's fiscal-cliff victory were planted by likely Treasury Secretary nominee Jack Lew -- in the 2011 debt ceiling deal that put taxes and military spending cuts on the table, and left entitlement reform off, thereby ensuring Republicans would be operating on the defense. And that's where they will be once again as we lurch to the next series of fiscal crises, starting with next month's debate over raising the nation's debt ceiling.

    Republicans can threaten to shut down the government if the White House doesn't agree to control spending. But just as polls showed during the fiscal cliff negotiations -- and during the 1994 government shutdown -- public blame likely will come crashing down on them. Already, Obama is acting like a president who knows he has the upper hand -- telling the House Speaker "spending isn't the problem" and suggesting he wants to raise more taxes by capping deductions.