是走是留，公式算一算
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圣诞节应该是一年中最快乐的时刻，可许多公司却以将员工扫地出门的方式来“庆祝”。如今，我们已经平安度过了可怕的圣诞节辞退季，是时候评估一下我们安然度过今年四个季度的可能性了。我认为，我偶然遇到了一个强大的数学工具，可以让员工不再为这个问题纠结。下面就是计算员工生存概率的等式： E = mc2 简单地说，这个公式是指员工将承受的风险E，等于我们下文研究的一系列因数m，乘以公司高管为咨询顾问支付的资金金额c2。我们首先来看一下m，因为这是计算中的关键指标。 经济状况（15%）：目前，负面情绪浓厚，但是其中开始出现一批乐观主义者。他们认为，漫长的经济寒冬已经离我们远去。人们都期待经济增长，甚至开始为此做起了准备。然而，一缕寒风便可能扼杀刚刚萌芽的希望。所以，在这样的经济环境下，我们预计这个数字可能会很低，但并非一钱不值。 所在行业的状况及公司高管对行业的信心（20%）：部分公司的负责人对公司业务信心满满。而有些公司负责人则较为悲观。如果你所在公司的管理团队相信，公司能够实现增长，那么这个信心比例是可以成立的。但如果公司管理层认为“我们玩完了”，则该信心比例将会降低。 员工任期及公司在此期间花在你身上的成本（30%）：如果公司以聘用你的成本过高为理由炒你的鱿鱼，公司能够节省多少开支？如果这个问题让你感到紧张，那就做两个深呼吸吧。 |
Now that we're through the lethal Christmas Firing Season, when corporations celebrate what should be the happiest time of the year by heaving people from the balustrades, it may be a good time to assess our chances of making it through all four quarters of the current calendar year. I believe I've stumbled upon a powerful mathematical tool that will take the subject out of the speculative zone. I humbly present an equation to calculate your likelihood of survival: E = mc2 In plain English, this means that your exposure to danger, E, is a function of certain factors we will examine in a moment, m, multiplied by the amount of money senior management is spending on consultants, c2. Let's look at m first, since it's the key measurement in our calculation. The state of your industry and the confidence your senior management has in it (20%):Some companies are run by people who believe in their business. Others are not. If your management believes your company can grow, you can keep this number down. Employees of the "we are doomed" school of management, not so much. Your tenure and cost to the organization (30%): How much money could the company save if it hoisted you by your expensive petard? Gulp twice if that question makes you nervous. |
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你的可替代性（20%）：当然，你对自己在的工作非常擅长，这很重要，对你也非常有利。但如果必须做出艰难的决定，公司是否很容易就能用其他人来代替你？如果把你的职务交接给其他人，公司是否依旧能够正常运行？如果答案是肯定的，那么这个比例就会比较高，因为你是可替代的。不过，从好的方面来看，你可以开拓新领域，或者干掉可能代替你的人，以此减轻这种倾向。 亲信因素（10%）：你会跟鲁弗先生玩套圈游戏吗？早上会与财务团队一起跑步吗？下班之后会与鲍勃喝个痛快吗？虽然这些都不是决定性因素，但却非常重要。 你是否受青睐？（5%）：这在等式中只占很小一部分，但却曾让许多人化险为夷。 接下来是c，即数量的平方，它会使所有员工面临风险。在你的公司内，通过估算公司高层用于咨询顾问的开支金额，就可确定这个因数。他们必须对这个数字进行说明。得到该数值后，便可作为常量。 确定所有因数之后，执行运算。如果结果超过咨询工作成本的50倍，那么恭喜你，赶快准备简历吧。 另外，还有一件事。如果你的薪酬已经很低，工作过度，劳累不堪，受到老板的剥削，得不到上级的赏识，经常是每天最后一个离开公司的人，那你的得分只会是零。而零乘以任何数的结果依然是零，无论高层找了多少顾问来咨询。（财富中文网） 译者：刘进龙/汪皓 |
Your fungibility (20%): Of course you're good at what you do, and that counts in your favor. But if tough decisions had to be made, would you be easy to replace with another cog in the machine? Could your duties be handed to somebody else, and the whale continue to cut through the water without coughing? If so, this number will be high for you, because you are fungible. On the bright side, you can decrease this liability, either by carving out new turf for yourself or by killing the people who could do what you do. Your crony factor (10%): Do you play quoits with Mr. Roover? Run in the morning with the finance team? Get plastered after work with Bob? All that stuff counts, you know. It's not dispositive. But it counts. Are you loved? (5%): It's a small part of the equation, but it's been known to save more than one life. This brings us to c, the quantity, when squared, that puts all employees at risk. It may be ascertained in your corporation by estimating the amount of money senior management is spending on consultants. That is the number they have to justify. Get that number and you have the constant. Execute the calculation now that you have all the components. If the result is more than 50 times the cost of consultancy, dust off your résumé. Oh, there's one other thing. If you are already underpaid, overworked, overwrought, exploited, underappreciated, and routinely the last guy to leave at the end of the day, make your m a zero. And zero times anything still comes out zero, no matter how many consultants are rummaging about with their whiteboards. |
