2013年5大商业悲剧

    感恩节又要到了，正是最适合聊聊火鸡的时候。不，大家可别以为这种鸡是感恩节当晚的传统菜式。“火鸡”在英文里还有一层意思，是指那些最初看起来很高明，后来却彻底搞砸的交易和战略，也可以理解成冤大头。所以，要是出现这样的情况，西方人也会来上一句：“好家伙，搞的好大一只火鸡！”

    《财富》杂志高级主编艾伦?斯隆盘点了2013年的公共与私企领域年度最失误决策，以下是他列出的几只冤大头“火鸡”。

    杠杆收购TXU

    2007年，华尔街最精明的三家金融机构——高盛（Goldman Sachs）、KKR（科尔伯格－克拉维斯－罗伯茨）和TPG（德州太平洋集团）联手对德克萨斯州公用事业公司（TXU）发起杠杆收购。这笔收购规模高达480亿美元，堪称史上最大的一笔企业私有化交易。连股神巴菲特都没能和这只“火鸡”摆脱干系。当时，巴菲特斥资20亿美元买下表现不佳的TXU债券，押注TXU经营会有起色，可这家公司一直没能像巴菲特期望的那样实现营利，而今反倒走入了协商破产的穷途末路。收购TXU的几家机构为完成私有化的公司起了一个新名字：能源未来控股（Energy Future Holdings）。斯隆倒是很喜欢这个名字。可惜，他们根本不知道迎接新生TXU的竟然是那样的未来。

    收购《波士顿环球报》

    1993年，《纽约时报》所属的纽约时报公司（New York Times Co. ）以10.28亿美元现金与股票收购赢得了《波士顿环球报》（Boston Globe）的所有权。这也许足以成为史上最失败的报业收购案。今年10月，纽约时报公司作价7000万美元出售《波士顿环球报》和马萨诸塞州的报业公司WorcesterTelegram & Gazette。后者是纽约时报公司于2000年以2.96亿美元现金收购的下属公司。根据今年纽约时报的售价计算，该公司两次收购的资产价值已经缩水约95%。正所谓屋漏偏逢连夜雨，因未能成功利用设立平行双傀儡公司（double horizontal dummy）的手法避税，纽约时报公司失去了1.6亿美元本该享有的税收抵扣，所得税款由此增加了约6000万美元。虽然《财富》与《纽约时报》是竞争对手，但斯隆列举这只“火鸡”并没有幸灾乐祸的意思，不是为了成心让《纽约时报》的母公司难堪。只不过，在年末盘点冤大头交易的时候，他不禁想起了这笔交易因为错失双傀儡公司的机会而雪上加霜。这么极品的例子，谁又能忘得了？

    入股杰西潘尼

    两位货真价实的华尔街精英——对冲基金公司Pershing Square的创始人比尔?阿克曼与美国房地产信托巨头Vornado Realty Trust的首席执行官史蒂文?罗斯都曾大量购买荣登财富500强榜单的连锁百货公司杰西潘尼（J.C. Penney）股票。他们为这家经营不善的百年老店杰西潘尼请来了缔造苹果零售营业辉煌的罗恩?约翰逊，让苹果的这位功臣统领一家典型的传统商业公司。约翰逊上任后最出名的决定莫过于未经任何考证就当机立断，下令杰西潘尼旗下所有的连锁店统统鸟枪换炮，走高档路线。谁知外来的和尚没念好经。只要约翰逊和任何一位在杰西潘尼店内稍作停留的顾客交流一下就会发现，销售内衣和出售高利润的苹果产品截然不同，前者面对的是擅长杀价的精明消费者，追捧后者的是乐意为任何一款时髦电子产品接受全额零售价的买家。今年约翰逊收到了辞职信，阿克曼与罗斯蒙受了巨大损失。杰西潘尼如今正奋力摆脱困境，避免与以上两只“火鸡”成为难兄难弟。斯隆认为，这又一次提醒我们：华尔街不同于传统商圈。

    美国联邦政府关门

    美国人还要把这出闹剧翻来覆去看多少遍？那些狂热的政客深信自己有权伤害不堪一击的民众。他们干扰了联邦机构履行合法职能，使联邦政府债务违约的危险一触即发。若果真的违约，它的杀伤力会使引爆金融危机的雷曼兄弟破产都相形见绌。和美国政府债务违约相比，雷曼兄弟破产造成的破坏如同四舍五入的误差，可以忽略不计。目睹这场政治闹剧反复自动播出实在痛苦至极，就像和一个茶党党人被困在一个同一个房间，明明是保守派的茶党分子还坚持要高声朗读安?兰德的名作《阿特拉斯耸耸肩》（Atlas Shrugged）。要知道，兰德可是信奉自由资本主义的哲学家。这种折磨谁受得了？不，大家已经受够了！

    美国医保网站Healthcare.gov

    盘点进行到现在，这应该是到目前为止今年最大的一只“火鸡”。从今年10月1日上线至今，这个联邦保险电子商务网站到底怎么样，美国人都知道。斯隆不无讽刺地评论说，政府迟早会让它走上正道，然后我们就得对付奥巴马医保法案这部法律了，总之就得不停扯皮拉筋。

    以上就是斯隆整理的本年度美国“火鸡”，最后他祝愿大家感恩节快乐，希望我们的投资和生活永远都别变成“火鸡”。

    译者：若离

    Thanksgiving is right around the corner, which makes this a perfect time to talk about turkeys. No, not the kind that you devour at the traditional holiday dinner. Rather, transactions and strategies that once looked smart but have turned utterly fowl. The kind of thing that makes you say, "Boy, was that a turkey!"

    Herewith, my turkey list for 2013, from both the public and private sectors.

    TXU buyout

    In 2007 three of the smartest outfits on Wall Street -- Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR, Fortune 500), and Texas Pacific Group -- combined to pull off a $48 billion leveraged buyout of the former Texas Utilities, the biggest going-private transaction in the history of the world. Oops. The deal started going bad about two seconds after it closed because the price of natural gas fell, making TXU's coal-fired plants less competitive. Even Warren Buffett got suckered into this turkey, buying $2 billion of beaten-down bonds and betting on a turnaround that never came. The company is now in bankruptcy talks. I especially love the grand new name the buyout barons gave TXU: Energy Future Holdings. Too bad they had no idea what the future held.

    Boston Globe acquisition

    The $1.028 billion cash and stock takeover of the Globe's owner by the New York Times Co. (NYT) in 1993 is probably the worst newspaper purchase in history. And that's saying something. In October, the Times unloaded the Globe and the Worcester (Mass.)Telegram & Gazette, which it bought for $296 million in cash in 2000, for a combined $70 million. That's about 95% less than it paid. To add a drumstick, the Times Co. (as I've written before) failed to use a double horizontal dummy (love that name!) structure to do the Globe buyout, and as a result lost a $160 million tax deduction that it could have had. That makes Times Co.'s income tax bill about $60 million higher than it had to be. I take no special delight in tormenting the owner of the New York Times, a Fortunecompetitor. But I just can't resist cackling about a turkey deal that involves a missing double dummy. Who could?

    The bad Penney

    Two really smart Wall Street guys, Bill Ackman of the Pershing Square hedge fund and Steve Roth of Vornado Realty Trust, bought tons of J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500)stock and got its board to hire Ron Johnson, the architect of Apple's wildly successful retail operation, to run this archetypal Main Street company. Johnson famously decided to take the whole chain upscale all at once without doing any testing. He discovered what anyone who has spent more than three seconds in a JCP store could have told him: that selling underwear to bargain hunters isn't the same as selling trendy, high-margin iWhatevers to buyers happy to pay full retail. Johnson got fired this year; Ackman and Roth took big losses. The company is now struggling to survive the turkey trio. Repeat after me: Wall Street isn't Main Street.

    The government shutdown, etc.

    How many times do we have to revisit this show? Zealots utterly convinced that they're right have hurt vulnerable people, disrupted legitimate federal functions, and come close to triggering a federal debt default that would have made the damage from Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy look like a rounding error. Watching this show repeat itself is as excruciating as being trapped in a room with a Tea Party type who insists on reading Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged aloud. Enough, already!

    Healthcare.gov

    This is by far the biggest turkey of the year. We all know what's happened since the site went live -- sort of -- on Oct. 1. But sooner or later, the government will get the website right. I suppose. Then we'll have to deal with Obamacare itself. Gobble, gobble, gobble.

    Okay, I'm flocked out. Have a great Thanksgiving. And may your investment portfolios -- and lives -- be turkey-free.