沃尔玛寄望年轻掌门人赢回投资者信心

    本周一，全球最大的零售企业——沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）任命董明伦接替麦道克，成为该公司新任首席执行官。对于董明伦而言，执掌沃尔玛显然将是一项艰巨的任务。而这项任务的实际难度可能比表面上看起来更大。

    对沃尔玛而言，好消息是董明伦可能是接任该公司首席执行官的最佳人选。耶鲁管理学院（the Yale School of Management）的杰弗里•索南菲尔德说：“董明伦是绝佳人选，他简直是为这个职位而生。”

    董明伦一直效力于沃尔玛，他中学时期就开始在沃尔玛兼职，目前负责沃尔玛的国际业务（这各部门去年的收入为1350亿美元）。董明伦此前还负责过山姆会员店（Sam's Club）的业务（这个部门去年的收入为560亿美元）。如果上述这两项业务是独立的企业，那么它们将分别在《财富》美国500强排行榜上名列第9和第53位。此外，沃尔玛贿赂墨西哥官员的丑闻也没有牵涉到董明伦，因为事件发生在沃尔玛现任首席执行官麦道克主管公司国际业务期间。

    还有一个好处是，董明伦年仅47岁，他有可能执掌公司较长时间，而这恐怕正是沃尔玛所需要的。我们不妨看看沃尔玛的股票价格。沃尔玛的股价一直未能跟上大盘；直到去年才超过1999年的高位。大家可能会想当然的认为，董明伦将需要提升沃尔玛（2012年收入高达4690亿美元）的业绩。但奇怪的是，事实并不尽然。

    事实上，沃尔玛一直保持着上佳的业绩表现。据咨询公司EVA Dimensions的估算，沃尔玛的经济利润——投资者最关心的一项标准——多年来一路飙升。更棒的是，它经济利润的增速快于收入增长，要年复一年的做到这一点实属不易。就以往业绩来看，沃尔玛在财务表现方面可谓是明星企业。

    沃尔玛的问题并不在于业绩不佳，而是投资者对它的前景不看好。算算沃尔玛的财务数字就知道了。显然，投资者认为这家公司无法继续提升经济利润。事实上，近期的股价表明，投资者认为沃尔玛无法再提升利润。投资者对沃尔玛持怀疑态度的原因很明显，过去一年，未来业绩的指标下行。同店销售额已经连续三个季度下降——这绝不是个好兆头，要知道，目前经济虽然增长较缓慢，可是依然在增长。此外，上周，沃尔玛今年再次下调了盈利预期。如今在华尔街，沃尔玛这个名字听着就让人沮丧。

    沃尔玛迫切需要有人描绘出光明的远景，而董明伦完全能做到这一点。他目前负责的国际业务正是沃尔玛增长的主要来源。此外，董明伦曾涉足沃尔玛的各项业务，对于公司的运作可谓了如指掌。他对沃尔玛向来评价很高。他曾向笔者表示：“我花了大价钱去读研【塔尔萨大学（University of Tulsa）的工商管理硕士】，确实有所收获，但我在沃尔玛半年学到的东西，比我中学后接受的5年半教育里学到的还要多。”

    而且现在沃尔玛的整个舞台都是董明伦的。

    董明伦将于2014年2月1日正式接任沃尔玛首席执行官。当然，他不能让这家公司的业绩出现下滑。但最重要的是，他必须使投资者有更多理由相信，沃尔玛未来的业绩会像它过去多年的一贯表现一样精彩。（财富中文网）

    译者：项航                   

    Running the world's largest retailer will obviously be a mammoth task for Doug McMillon, named Monday to succeed Wal-Mart (WMT) CEO Mike Duke -- but in fact it may be even harder than it looks.

    The good news for the company is that there may be no one better to tackle the job. "Doug is a perfect fit," says the Yale School of Management's Jeffrey Sonnenfeld. "He was put on earth for this position."

    A lifetime employee -- he joined the company as a part-timer in high school -- McMillon runs Wal-Mart's international business, with $135 billion of revenue last year, and previously ran Sam's Club, with $56 billion of revenue last year. Those businesses would be No. 9 and No. 53 on the Fortune 500 if they were free-standing companies. In addition, he's untouched by the scandal surrounding Wal-Mart's alleged bribery of Mexican officials; that occurred under his predecessor as international chief, current CEO Mike Duke.

    One more advantage is that McMillon is only 47, and his potentially long run at the top may be just what the company needs. To see why, look at Wal-Mart's stock price, which hasn't been keeping up with the broader market; it surpassed its 1999 high only last year. You might logically suppose that McMillon will need to make the giant company (2012 revenue: $469 billion) perform better. But, strangely, that's not exactly it.

    Wal-Mart has actually been performing extremely well. Its economic profit, the measure that investors care about most, has been rocketing for years, calculates the EVA Dimensions consulting firm. Better yet, economic profit has been increasing even faster than revenue, which is a tough act to pull off year after year. Based on past results, Wal-Mart is an extraordinary financial star.

    Wal-Mart's problem isn't performance. It's expectations. Crunch the numbers, and it's clear that investors don't expect the company to keep improving economic profit as it has been doing. In fact, the recent stock price implies that investors don't expect Wal-Mart to increase profits at all. It's obvious why investors are skeptical; indicators of future performance have turned down in the past year. Same-store sales have declined for three consecutive quarters -- never a good sign when the economy is growing, even slowly -- and last week the company lowered profit expectations for the second time this year. Say "Wal-Mart" on Wall Street, and the mood turns gloomy.

    The company desperately needs someone who can paint a picture of a bright long-term future, and McMillon is well positioned to do that. The international business, his current domain, is where much of Wal-Mart's growth must come from. He has also worked in all other parts of the company and knows its operations from the loading dock up. He's a devoted cheerleader for the company. He once told me, "I went to graduate school [MBA, University of Tulsa] and paid good money for an education that's worth something, but I learned more in six months at Wal-Mart than I learned in five-and-a-half years of education post-high school."

    And he's got all that runway.

    McMillon takes over on February 1. He certainly can't let the company's performance deteriorate. But most of all, he has to give investors new reasons to expect that Wal-Mart will perform as well tomorrow as it has performed for the past several years.