白手起家，“印尼版奥巴马”能否从贫民窟登上总统宝座？

    十年前，佐科威收获了听起来不大可能、但无可辩驳的成功。佐科威在印尼梭罗市一个河边贫民窟长大，是家里的第一位大学生；他随后创办了一家家具出口企业，并由此成为百万富翁。

    但当时，佐科威的辉煌人生路才刚刚起步。2005年，他成为梭罗市市长——没错，他就是在这座城市的贫民窟长大的——随即发起了一场大获成功的反贪风暴。2012年，凭借着这些斐然政绩，佐科威击败时任雅加达省长法乌兹，成为这座不断扩张的超大城市的新领袖。今年3月，他又被推举为所在政党的印尼总统候选人【也是在这个月，《财富》杂志(Fortune)发布了2014年全球50位领导力榜样名单，佐科威位居第37位】。印尼当地时间7月9日，印尼总统大选即将进入紧要关头。如果佐科威能够在这场难分伯仲的大选中战胜对手、前军事将领普拉博沃，他就将成为世界第四大国的领导人。（最新消息：印尼总统大选已经结束，佐科威和普拉博沃团队都宣布自己胜出，选举委员会预计将于两周后正式公布最终的选举结果。）

    “能够在24个月内跃升为总统的市长并不多见，”西北大学(Northwestern University)政治学家杰弗里•温特斯在接受《财富》电邮采访时说。“没多久之前还是梭罗市市长的佐科威赢得总统选举，就好比克利夫兰市长丹尼斯•库钦奇赢得美国总统宝座一样。区别在于，佐科威的确有望获胜。”

    凭借着白手起家的励志故事和推动切实变革的傲人记录，时常在竞选活动中身穿红蓝相间格子衬衫的佐科威已经极大地鼓舞了渴望摆脱现状的亿万印尼民众。这位因乐观进取、敢作敢为而赢得广泛赞誉的政治家让许多人联想起2008年左右的奥巴马。最近在印尼广为传唱的歌曲《双指礼》(Two-Finger Salute)也是受他启发创作而成。在近期的民调中，佐科威获得了3%的优势，但这点优势或许并不具备统计学上的意义。

    然而，就在几个月前，佐科威赢得大选似乎已成定局——他的支持率领先普拉博沃接近40个百分点。普拉博沃是16年前被推翻的印尼独裁者苏哈托的前女婿，无疑具有根深蒂固的影响力。不过，由于过去侵犯人权的行为，他成了不受美国欢迎的人。

    究竟发生了什么事？

    “佐科威的竞选活动显得支离破碎，没有章法可言，”温特斯说。“这种软弱的竞选活动使得那些犹豫不决的印尼人更加怀疑佐科威是否真正做好了出任总统的准备。”

    问题在于：这位候选人过于频繁地公开露面，缺乏一个始终如一的讯息，发表演讲时虽然面面俱到，但激情不足。

    伦敦大学(University of London)东方及非洲研究学院(SOAS)讲师迈克尔•比埃勒表示，佐科威的竞选活动乏善可陈并不仅仅是他一个人的错。这位政治家一直深受党内机器运转不良的拖累，成为了各种抹黑活动的受害者——跟奥巴马曾经受到的指摘非常相似，四面八方的诽谤声音暗示，他其实并不是他自己所宣称的那种人。（这些攻击坚称，佐科威其实要么是一位隐秘的基督徒，要么是共产主义分子，要么是个中国人，要么自新加坡，要么上面这些全部都是。）比埃勒补充说，普拉博沃的竞选活动则显得格外巧妙，重点突出，这得益于一位曾经担任小布什总统军师的政治操盘手的大力协助——在印尼政治中，这种事还是破天荒头一次。

    近几个月来，普拉博沃颇为有效地把自己定位为一位局外人，同时还因为他的民族主义和民粹主义议程而赢得了支持，这多少有点讽刺意味。（两位候选人的竞选政纲其实并没有多大不同，但比埃勒认为佐科威拥有“更好的想法”。）

    但是，温特斯说：“为了坐上总统宝座，普拉博沃已经准备了三十年。过去十几年来，他一直在积极谋求这个最高职位，还打造了一台运行顺畅的政党机器。佐科威成为候选人的确出人意料，但普拉博沃获得候选人资格则一点也不令人意外。”

    两位学者都认为，这次大选目前难分伯仲，但无论结果如何，这场竞选都不可能带来印尼亟需的深刻变革。在竞选过程中，佐科威跟既得利益的距离越来越近——按道理说，这些既得利益正是他此次竞选活动的讨伐目标。这种行为显示，目前看来，这位白手起家，来自贫民窟的反腐先锋仅凭一己之力所能攀登的高度非常有限。（财富中文网）

    译者：叶寒

    A decade ago, Joko Widodo’s life was an improbable, irrefutable success. Raised in a riverside shack in Solo, Indonesia, Widodo was the first in his family to go to college; he then founded the furniture export business that made him a millionaire.

    But back then, Widodo was just getting started. In 2005, he became mayor of Solo—the very city whose slums he had grown up in—and did so good a job busting corruption and cleaning things up, that in 2012, he unseated incumbent Fauzi Bowo to become governor of Jakarta, the sprawling megacity. Then this March, he became his party’s nominee to become the President of Indonesia (that same month, FORTUNE ranked him No. 37 on its 2014 list of 50 World’s Greatest Leaders.) Tomorrow — June 9 in Indonesia — it all comes to a head. If Jokowi prevails in the neck-and-neck race against his opponent, former military general Prabowo Subianto, he’ll be leading the fourth largest nation on Earth.

    “There are not many mayors who can make a leap to the presidency in the span of 24 months,” Jeffrey Winters, a political scientist at Northwestern University told FORTUNE via an email interview. “Jokowi winning the presidency having only recently been the mayor of Solo is like Dennis Kucinich winning the presidency from Cleveland. The difference is Jokowi actually has a shot at victory.”

    With his rags-to-riches story and record for real change, Widodo, who campaigns in folksy red-and-blue checked shirts and is popularly known as “Jokowi,” has energized an Indonesian populace hungry for a break from the status quo. The politician has drawn comparisons to Obama (circa 2008), inspired a hit song “Two-Finger Salute,” won cred for his can-do competence and earned a slight (though perhaps not statistically significant) 3% edge in recent polls.

    Yet, just months ago, a Jokowi victory appeared almost a sure thing—holding an almost 40% lead over Prabowo, a candidate not allowed in the U.S. for past human rights violations and who, as the former son-in-law of Suharto, the Indonesian dictator overthrown 16 years ago, is certainly among the nation’s entrenched powers.

    What happened?

    “Jokowi’s campaign has been a fragmented mess,” says Winters. “For undecided Indonesians, the weak campaign reinforced doubts about whether Jokowi was really ready for prime time.”

    Among the issues: the candidate over-scheduled public appearances, lacked a consistent message, and has been a technical and not particularly inspiring orator.

    Michael Buehler, a lecturer at University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) says Jokowi is not the only one at fault in his lackluster campaign. The politician has been undermined by his own party’s machinery and is the victim of various smear campaigns that have—not unlike claims made about Obama—insinuated that he is not who he says he is. (The attacks maintain that Jokowi is secretly a Christian…or a Communist…or Chinese…or originally from Singapore…or all of the above.) Buehler adds that Prabowo’s slick, focused campaign has been aided by the work of a former George W. Bush political operative—a first in Indonesian politics.

    In recent months, Prabowo has effectively, if “ironically,” positioned himself as an outsider and won support for his nationalistic and populist agendas. (The candidates’ platforms are not all that different, though Buehler says Jokowi has “better ideas.”)

    But, says Winters: “Prabowo has been preparing for the presidency for three decades and actively pursuing the office and building a party machine for over ten years. It is Jokowi’s candidacy that is surprising, not Prabowo’s.”

    Right now, both scholars say the election is too close to call—and in any case, is unlikely to bring about the profound change Indonesia needs. During the course of the campaign, Jokowi has drawn closer to some of the entrenched interests that he is, in theory, running against—showing that for now, perhaps, there are limits to just how high Indonesia’s self-made, corruption-busting leader from the slums can climb on his own.