巴菲特：不要看衰美国的创新能力

亿万富翁投资者沃伦•巴菲特今年发布的年度致股东信备受关注。他在信中提出了一个关乎美国未来的重要论断：不要看衰美国的创新能力。

巴菲特写道：“过去240年来，看衰美国从来都是一个可怕的错误，现在仍然是。商业和创新的金鹅将继续为美国产下更多、更大的金蛋。”

不用说，巴菲特当然指的是某几个行业。不过，我认为有几个领域尤其值得注意，例如美国的现代能源基础设施。它足以成为全球的典范，问题是，那些最聪明的头脑正在错过这次创新浪潮。

有时候，技术和产业的重大变革声势浩大。而另一些变革在掀起浪潮前，只有些许涟漪，即便是在最靠近的湖面上，人们也感觉不到他们的船只正在震动。

在20世纪80年代，麦肯锡咨询公司曾经预测称，到2000年，全球的手机销售量将不足100万部，因为它们太贵了，电池也太沉重，无法得到广泛使用。这导致AT&T公司没有在这一行业投资。听起来是不是很熟悉？

最近出现的三大“涟漪”让我们有机会窥探，美国将如何为家庭和企业提供不竭的动力。

首先，作为美国的创新中心和最大的太阳能市场，加利福尼亚取消了“净电量结算上限”政策(net metering cap)，不再限制家庭和公司通过屋顶太阳能板向电网输入的馈电量。此举解除了限制加州太阳能飞速发展的最后一个瓶颈，也确定了净电量结算在现代基础设施中的重要地位，因为它能够带来能源的双向流动。如今，纽约、科罗拉多和南卡罗莱纳等其他41个州，也开始使用净计量结算政策推动能源基础设施走向现代化。

第二，国会扩大了太阳能投资税的减免范围，借此在全国推广太阳能的使用。如今在美国的20个州，屋顶太阳能发电成本已经低于或等于电网用电。而在5年内，几乎所有的州都可以实现这一点。过去60年中，政府给化石燃料和核能的补贴比风能和太阳能获得的补贴高出8倍。尽管竞争环境如此不平等，太阳能的成本依然在迅速降低。

第三，各国政府在巴黎达成了一项历史性的气候协议，该协议将在接下来几十年中逐步淘汰化石燃料，并增加对替代技术的需求。

太阳能的崛起不会令人意外。一些将权力赋予消费者的创新商业模式已经颠覆了规模巨大的行业，比如手机和出租车行业。

按需拼车应用为那些迫切希望以实惠价格打车的消费者带来了新的技术，并借此颠覆了全球的出租车行业。随着运营商以创新方式削减了消费者的成本，手机的使用量呈现指数级增长——这个速率要比麦肯锡预测的快得多。

消费者的购买决定告诉我们，哪些创新产品会取得成功。他们迅速投向拼车平台的怀抱，也已成为一种不可避免的趋势。2013年，优步平均每周提供100万次打车服务，而如今，优步平均每天提供200万次打车服务。尽管遭到一些地区出租车行业的坚决抵制，这一变革依旧发生了。类似的，消费者的巨大需求也在推动手机持有率不断飙升。如今，每100个美国人就有103部手机——这一比例远远超过固定电话的使用率，甚至超过了后者的历史最高点。而到2016年年中，美国的屋顶太阳能板也将覆盖100万个家庭。

所以，不要轻易忽视那些有志于颠覆成熟行业的新技术——以消费者为中心的美国创新最终将大获全胜。（财富中文网）

本文作者林恩•朱里奇是Sunrun的首席执行官和共同创始人。

译者：严匡正

审校：任文科

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders recently gained a lot of attention when he pointed out one very important point about the future of America: don’t bet against U.S. innovation.

“For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. America’s golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue to lay more and larger eggs,” Buffet commented.

Needless to say, Buffett is referring to several industries, but a few that I think deserves special attention include America’s modern energy infrastructure. It can be a model for the world; the problem is the smartest minds are missing this innovation wave.

Monumental shifts in technology and industry sometimes start with a bang. Other changes start with a ripple before growing into a wave. Even those who are closest to the surface sometimes don’t feel their boat rocking.

In the 1980’s, McKinsey & Company consultants predicted that there would be fewer than 1 million cell phones sold by 2000, stating they were too expensive and the batteries were too heavy for mainstream adoption. This kept AT&T from investing in this industry. Sound familiar?

We’ve recently seen three major ripples signaling the future of how America will power its homes and businesses.

First, in America’s innovation heartland and its largest solar market, California discarded its cap (i.e. removed the “net metering cap”) on how many households and businesses can plug into the electric grid with rooftop solar. This eliminated the last bottleneck to explosive solar growth in California. It also affirmed that net metering is a key component of a modern infrastructure through its ability to moderate a two-way flow of energy. Today, 41 other states, such as New York, Colorado and South Carolina, use net metering to modernize energy infrastructure.

Second, Congress extended the solar investment tax credit to enable solar to spread nationwide. Today, rooftop solar electricity costs the same or less than grid power in 20 states. In five years’ time, this will be true in nearly all states. Solar costs continue to come down rapidly despite competing on an unleveled playing field. Fossil fuels and nuclear power have received eight times more government subsidies than wind and solar over the past six decades.

Third, governments worldwide forged an historic climate agreement in Paris that will drive the global phase-out of fossil fuel generation over decades — and increase the demand for the technologies that can replace it.

The rise of solar shouldn’t be a surprise. Innovative business models that put power in the hands of consumers have upended huge industries—just look at mobile phones and taxis.

On-demand ride-sharing apps have rocked the established taxi industry worldwide by bringing new technology to consumers that are eager for accessible, affordable alternatives. Cell phone adoption grew exponentially as carriers innovated ways to bring costs down for consumers — at a rate much faster than even McKinsey could predict.

Purchasing decisions tell us which innovative products will succeed. Consumers’ rapid switch to ride-sharing platforms cemented the inevitability of the industry. In 2013, Uber averaged around 1 million rides per week; today, it averages 2 million rides per day. This shift took place amid staunch resistance from taxi incumbents in certain geographies. Similarly, cell phone ownership rates skyrocketed with intense consumer demand. Today, there 103 cell subscriptions for every 100 Americans — a rate far eclipsing the use of landlines, even at its height. With rooftop solar, the U.S. will cross one million homes in the first half of 2016.

So think twice before ignoring a new technology that’s poised to shake a powerful, established industry—American innovation that’s consumer-centric will win the day.

Lynn Jurich is CEO and co-founder of Sunrun.