这些借口是成就伟业的最大绊脚石

我有许多头衔，但不包括算命先生。我不能预测你的未来，因为连你自己也无法知道自己的未来。即便你列出许多职业选择，并根据仔细挑选的信息进行评估，你依旧无法确定自己的未来在何方。

有一种东西叫做概率。每个人都无法确定自己的未来，只是程度不同而已。例如，如果你热爱自己的工作，那么你成就伟业的概率就更高。如果你考虑更多而不是更少替代方案，你的决定成功的概率便越高。如果你使用高质量的信息，你的决定可能会更明智。

必然性是不存在的，但更高的概率却是可以实现的。但人们愿意去考虑必然性，但如果没有必然性，人们会更加自在地得过且过，而不是去追求模糊的概率。这样做虽然可能让人更舒服，但却毫无逻辑。这就是你要面临的选择：相信逻辑，还是运气？

通用的借口：运气

幸运的是，我们会共同支持一个通用的借口：运气。运气面前，人人平等。谁没有在自己的失败中找出坏运气，或者从其他人的成功中找出好运气？我们知道自己的成就都是努力和才能的结果，而其他人的成功则纯粹靠的是运气，这种对比是荒谬的。

我们对运气的依赖无处不在。所以，彩票才会盛行。投资者和他们的顾问将股票市场视为豪赌，施展出各种秘密的手段，与轮盘赌局里的其他人博弈。求职者随机发出数百封简历，希望能找到一家最适合自己的公司。

运气甚至侵入了我们的语言。从考试到求职面试再到投资，我们几乎在每一个场合都会祝福彼此好运。你或许认为不断祝福好运，只不过是一种社会习俗而已。但习俗所反映出的是一种普遍的社会理念。

以爱情为例。有许多单身族已经准备好开始一段恋爱关系甚至步入婚姻殿堂，但他们却把大量时间用于期待爱情来临，嫉妒那些成双入对的好朋友们的“运气”。当有朋友建议他们登陆在线约会网站时，他们会报以嘲笑。他们说：“爱情可不是这样的。”然后，他们会继续回忆历史上的爱情故事是如何发生的。他们一边忙着自己的生活——上班，回家，一边等待着运气来临，亦或等到的是一道晴天霹雳。这是一种极其消极的态度！

相比之下，有的人想要伟大的爱情，并且知道如何追求爱情。她还知道，爱情不能靠等。所以，她会尽可能出现在各种场合，提高遇到爱人的概率。如果她对摩托车失去了兴趣，但喜欢户外运动，她可能会加入一个远足团队，而不是把时间用于泡吧。她会进行认真的思考，并且会主动出击。而且，这种人更有可能追求自己喜爱的工作。她对自己所处的时代有着清醒的认识，她不会只是期待着好工作能自动来到自己面前；她清楚好工作要靠自己去努力追求。她过上幸福生活的概率，远高于其他人。

又一个借口：时间的残酷

在我听到的所有借口中，时间有限最接近真正的理由。有人告诉我，他没有时间考虑替代选项或收集信息，这个理由在那一刻通常是成立的，因为他们确实没有时间。但他们过去曾经有时间，或者未来能够找出时间。所以，时间有限只能作为当下的理由，但却是之前和未来的借口。顺便说一句，我们每个人都在努力争取时间。

有的人把时间看成是沙漏里流动的沙子。年轻人耸耸肩说：“对我来说已经太晚了。”他是个商人，但他讨厌自己的工作，希望写电影或电视剧本。但要在编剧行业站稳脚跟，他得从没有薪水的实习生开始做起——如果他只有22岁，这是可以接受的，但他33岁了，妻子还一直渴望买一套房子，有个自己的家，因此这样的选择便有些难以接受。

对于他33岁这个事实，上面是一种看待方式。但我们不妨换个角度……他参加工作只有10年时间。未来还将继续工作40年。或许他目前在财力上无法承担免费工作，但这并不意味着他就要放弃，在比他现在的年龄还要长的岁月里，每天大部分时间都在痛苦中度过。他的年龄只是意味着，他需要用更有创造性地方式，追随自己的激情。他可以不走其他编剧走过的路，或许他应该另辟蹊径，尝试一条与家庭情况相符的道路。太晚了吗？拜托！

想想哈兰德•桑德斯吧。1955年，65岁的桑德斯在肯塔基州科尔宾拥有一家成功的餐厅。但一条洲际高速公路改变了交通路线，也让餐厅失去顾客。就这样，他失去了生计。但他还有一份神秘的炸鸡配方，于是他开始挨家挨户推销自己的炸鸡。后来便有了肯德基。桑德斯上校在去世之前，作为肯德基的创始人，成功经营了近30年。

有时候，最有效的激励，来自于那些年纪更大但却不害怕揭穿借口的人。

62岁的希瑟•E曾写信告诉我说，她已经决定在间隔了两年之后，重新思考自己的博士论文。“我曾经经历过各种‘但是’和‘要是怎样就好了’的阶段——我已做好准备，我不会去理会那些阻止我的东西，我将勇往直前，追求伟大的事业——当然，我已经62岁了，或许我的时间比其他人更少，但这已经不重要了。”确实不重要！

寻找借口的文化

人类的天性就是趋向于寻找借口，这已经够糟糕了，但在我们今天的社会，借口已经几乎变成了常态。逃避责任的情况早已司空见惯。政客们会解读民意调查结果，来确定应该支持哪项政策。如果政策失败，那并不是他们的责任——他们只是遵从了公众的意愿。如果一项法律未能通过，错在竞争对手。公众没有投票，借口是他们的投票无关紧要。政治流程几乎失效，但总有其他人可以指责，或者根本无人需要承担责任。

公司陷入困境，高管却可以领奖金。但谁能指责他们呢，因为是市场形势“对他们不利”或者“突然出现了”一种新技术。但谁又应该负责预测市场或技术的变化呢？除了底层员工，有谁被辞退了？

我们生活在一个找替罪羊的时代。现在，人人都是受害者——结果，我们很难找到压迫者。所以，肆无忌惮地寻找借口，并不让人感到意外。当今社会，人人都面临巨大的压力和挑战，生活每一个方面的成功都来之不易。全球经济的竞争压力，给我们的就业和安全感增加了不确定性。投资回报没有保证。技术可能在几年内让整个行业被淘汰。社会变革的速度如此之快，以至于整个社会都变得动荡不安。我们可能经常看到失败。因此，我们也会很容易面对寻找借口的诱惑。

如果我们将成功看作是不确定的，那么寻找借口的文化便会产生吸引力。借口就像是一张神奇的“自由脱狱卡”。如果你允许其他人寻找借口，对方也会投桃报李。所以，最好不要过于咄咄逼人地批评你的同事，因为他们也会给你同样的待遇。我们每个人都有不足，大家都是一样的，因此我们心安理得。

有时候，你最大的障碍便是你自己。没有任何借口——你才是问题所在。现在，不要让自己成为自己的绊脚石，行动起来：

你通常会用什么借口？或者，你是否声称自己从未用过借口？

在思考自己的职业时，运气的想法扮演着怎样的角色？

哪些个性是你最大的障碍，你打算如何克服它们？（财富中文网）

本文摘自拉里•史密斯的《不必恐惧，无需接口：如何成就伟业》（No Fears, No Excuses: What You Need to Do to Have a Great Career）一书。版权所有© 2016拉里•史密斯。经霍顿•米夫林•哈考特出版公司（Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company）允许提前发表。版权所有。

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

I wear many hats, but that of fortune-teller is not one of them. I do not know your future, just as you don’t know your future. Even if you generated many career alternatives and evaluated them with carefully considered information, you still couldn’t know for sure what the future holds for you.

There is a little thing called probability. Not knowing the future is a matter of degree. For instance, it is far more probable that you will have a great career if you love your work. Your decisions have a higher probability of success if you consider more — rather than fewer — alternatives. Decisions are more likely to be wise if you are using quality information.

There is no certainty, of course, but there is greater probability. But people like to think about certainty, and without certainty, it’s more comfortable for them to wing it than to pursue the murky world of probability. That may be more comfortable, but it is highly illogical. And that is the choice ahead of you: do you trust logic . . . or luck?

The Universal Excuse: Luck

Fortunately, we have a universal excuse around which we can all rally: Luck. Luck is the great leveler. Who has not seen bad luck in their own failures and good luck in the successes of others? By perverse contrast, we know our achievements are the result of effort and talent, while those of others are just dumb luck.

Our reliance on luck is everywhere. Lotteries thrive. Investors and their advisors treat the stock markets like great casinos, playing secret strategies that rival those at the roulette tables. Jobseekers send out hundreds of résumés randomly, hoping that one of them will be a perfect fit.

Luck has even invaded our language. We continue to wish each other good luck for every possible occasion, from exams to job interviews to investments. Perhaps you might conclude that this incessant wishing of good luck is no more than a social convention. But conventions reflect a widespread societal belief.

Consider the parallel to romance. There are those singles ready for a relationship or even marriage, but spend much of their time hoping for it and envying the “luck” of their coupled friends. When friends suggest they go to an online dating site, they laugh. “That’s just not how love is done,” they say, and then they wax on about how romances used to happen. They go about their lives — going to work, going home — waiting for lightning or luck to strike. How utterly disempowering!

Compare this portrait to the woman who wants great love and knows it. She also knows she mustn’t wait for it to come to her. So she puts herself in as many situations as possible that increase her probability of meeting someone she likes. If she is turned off by motorcycles but loves the outdoors, she is likely to join a hiking group rather than spend her time in dive bars. She’s thoughtful about it, and she’s proactive about it. And she’s the one who is likely to pursue a job she loves, by the way. She’s aware of the times she lives in, she doesn’t just hope for a great job to come to her; she recognizes that it’s up to her to find it. And the odds of her having a life that makes her happy are much, much greater than are the odds of her cohort.

The Tyranny of Time

Of all the excuses I hear, the constraint of time is closest to a true reason. When I am told that someone doesn’t have the time to consider alternatives or gather information, it is often true that, at that moment, they don’t actually have the time. Of course, they had time in the past, or they will find it in the longer term. This makes the time constraint an immediate reason and an earlier and future excuse. And by the way, we all struggle for time all the time.

And then there’s time as considered through an hourglass. “It’s too late for me,” shrugs the young man. He’s a businessman who hates his job and would much rather be writing screenplays or scripts for television. To get a foothold in that field, he would have had to start as an unpaid intern — something that sounds OK at 22, but not at 33, with a wife who is eager to buy a house and start a family.

Okay, that’s one way to look at the fact that he’s 33. But let’s see . . . he’s been in the workforce for barely 10 years. He will be in the workforce for another 40 years. Perhaps he can’t financially commit to working for free, but that doesn’t mean he needs to give up and spend more years than he has so far been alive being miserable for the majority of the hours of his day. It just means he needs to follow his passion more creatively. Instead of becoming a screenwriter who follows the path others have taken, perhaps he should try in an original way that still meets his family’s situation. Too late? Please!

Consider Harland Sanders. In 1955, he was 65 years old and the proprietor of a successful restaurant in Corbin, Kentucky. Then an interstate highway came along that diverted traffic — and his customers — away. Just like that, he lost his livelihood. But he still had one killer secret recipe for fried chicken, and he went practically door-to-door peddling it. And so began Kentucky Fried Chicken. Colonel Sanders enjoyed nearly 30 years of success as its originator before he died.

Sometimes the most effective inspiration comes from those who are older and not afraid to call an excuse out for what it is.

Heather E. was 62 when she wrote me that she had decided to revisit her doctoral dissertation after a hiatus of two years. “I have certainly been through all the ‘but’ stages and the ‘if only’ stages— I am so ready not to look at what stops me and only to go ahead and have a great career — of course, I am 62, so it may be shorter than others’, but perhaps no less important.” No less important, indeed.

Our Culture of Excuses

It is bad enough that our human nature tempts us into excuses, but we now live in a society where excuses are close to the norm. The evasion of all responsibility is commonplace. Politicians read the polls to discover what policy to support. If it fails, it’s not their responsibility — they were just following the public’s guidance. If they can’t get a law passed, it’s their opponents’ fault. The public fails to vote, using the excuse that their votes don’t matter. The political process barely functions, but somebody else is always to blame or there is no one to blame.

Executives take bonuses while their companies crash. But who can blame them, because the market “turned against them” or a new technology “appeared out of nowhere.” But whose job was it to foresee changes in the marketplace or in technology? And who gets fired, besides low-level employees?

We live in the Age of Victimization. We are all victims now–so many victims now, it’s hard to find the oppressors. And so this gluttony of excuses is not surprising. In today’s stressful and highly challenging world, success in every aspect of life is hard-won. The competitive pressures of the global economy add uncertainty to our employment and sense of security. Investment returns are not assured. Technology can make an entire industry obsolete in the span of a few years. The pace of social change is so rapid as to be destabilizing. It is easy to see defeat at every turn. Thus, it is equally easy to see the lure of the excuse.

If many of us see success as uncertain, then a culture of excuses is appealing. It is like a magical get-out-of-jail-free card. If you enable others to make excuses, you enable yourself as well. So better not criticize your colleagues too aggressively, and they will surely offer the same accommodation to you. We can all be inadequate together, comfortable that we are all alike.

Sometimes the obstacle standing in your way is you. No excuses–just you. Now get out of your own way, and get to work:

What excuses do you routinely rely on? Or do you claim you have never used an excuse?

What role does the notion of luck play in your thinking about career?

What personal characteristics most stand in your way, and how do you intend to overcome them?

Excerpted from No Fears, No Excuses: What You Need to Do to Have a Great Career by Larry Smith. Copyright © 2016 Larry Smith. Reprinted by permission of Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company. All rights reserved.