风投人士、亿万富翁、加密货币界传奇蒂姆·德雷普有个主意：把加利福尼亚一分为三。

这个想法从一开始就注定要失败，原因至少有五个。不过，还是让我们先听听德雷普的计划。

在德雷普看来，较小的州会由更高效而且不那么官僚的政府管理，原因是他们得争夺居民和企业。教育、安全、基础设施和医疗保健情况都将改善。税率也会较低。作为投资人，德雷普的名声源于他对Hotmail、Skype和特斯拉（Tesla）等大型科技公司的投资。德雷普说，如果加州一分为三，他“就可以不必再去考虑自己、Draper Associates、Draper Venture Network和Draper University搬出加州的事了”。

几年前德雷普买下了美国政府扣留的一大笔比特币，并因此大赚了一票。经过了从民主党到共和党再到自由派的转变后，现在他成了，嗯，自己的党，他相信加州的问题在于缺乏竞争。这个党的政治目标很简单，那就是拆散加利福尼亚。

德雷普表示，他已经为此收集到了60多万个签名，几乎是此项计划成为选举日公投提案所需签名数量的两倍。不过，德雷普还需要在6月13日之前对这些签名进行验证，并得到各县政府的确认。德雷普在电子邮件中说：“我的目标是让它成为公投提案，而随后能否看到新权力之美并拥抱它就要看加利福尼亚的民众了。”

与此同时，德雷普将面临着诸多不利的情况：

1. 上次出现这种情况还是在美国内战时期

美国上次同意分拆一个州是在1863年，当时西弗吉尼亚在内战达到高峰时脱离了弗吉尼亚。但就算在那个时候，此事仍花了两年时间来解决法律问题，并得到了总统批准。

总统亚伯拉罕·林肯最终签字同意了此事，但他担心这将成为其他州今后的“榜样”。无需多言，分拆一个州没有清晰程序可循。

2.共和党人不会同意

就算德雷普让加利福尼亚选民接受了分拆方案，政府法律专家称此事可能需要经过国会（这方面同样没有明确的程序）。而且没有任何迹象表明共和党议员会同意拆分加州。

一分为三后，每个新州会有1200-1400万人口，如果都获得两个参议院席位，国会里的民主党议员就会变多。德雷普的分拆方案至少会形成两个铁杆民主党州。

加州大学伯克利分校政治学教授杰克·西特林问道：“共和党人有什么理由要多弄出两个民主党参议员来呢？”

得到政府批准的可能性看来更小。总统唐纳德·特朗普和加州在移民政策、环保法规等一系列问题上一直矛盾重重。特朗普绝不会给加州帮忙。

3.德雷普以往拆分方案从未成功

德雷普的想法或许让人觉得似曾相识。原因是2014年他曾提出一个非常类似的方案，要把加州拆分成六个“初创”州。

但未能在2014年的最终期限前将此事纳入公投提案，2016年再次失败。尽管第二次德雷普拿出了超过113万个签名，但政府方面认为合格的只有752,685个。

对于这次失败，德雷普的回应是加州的签名认证程序过于陈旧，而且进一步证明加州目前的管理体系运转失灵，需要新的政府。

4. 一些加州人只想彻底脱离美国

德雷普的一分为三方案面临着竞争。一些有类似想法的人也在追求更好的教育制度和更改税制，他们希望加州仍是一个整体，但通过“Calexit”运动脱离美国。提议者认为脱美可以让加州更太平，因为作为美国的一部分让加州成了恐怖袭击目标。

Calexit此前也做过尝试，但以失败告终。它面临着一些巨大障碍，比如从联邦角度讲需要修宪，需要获得国会三分之二的支持票以及38个州的认可。Calexit还认为得克萨斯或许非常可能有能力进行自我拆分，但这种情况一直没有出现。

除此之外，Calexit 已经获准为2021年公投收集签名。

5. 加州内部分歧增大

加州内部的政治分歧越来越大。而且德雷普的提议把一些关系一直不好的县放在了一个州里。

以加州最北部为例，那里的部分居民多年来一直想跟俄勒冈州南部合并成立“杰斐逊”州。对于和湾区以及萨格拉门托“共处一室”，当地许多选民实际上不会感到兴奋。

加州大学洛杉矶分校公共政策讲师吉姆·纽顿不相信人们会认为三个州长、三个州议会或者三个不同的教育部门会改善他们的生活。

纽顿说：“我觉得这在本质上并不理性。”他还认为德雷普的计划“在政治上注定要失败”。

德雷普本人呢？他说自己仍抱有希望，毕竟，“在政治领域什么事都有可能发生”。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

Tim Draper, the billionaire venture capitalist and legend in the world of cryptocurrency, has an idea: Let’s split California into three separate states.

There are at least five reasons why this idea is doomed from the start, but first, here’s his case:

The way Draper sees it, smaller states would be run by more efficient and less bureaucratic governments as they compete for residents and business. Education, safety, infrastructure and health care would improve. Taxes would be lower. And the investor who made a name for himself funding tech giants like Hotmail, Skype and Tesla Inc. says he “won’t have to think anymore about moving myself, Draper Associates, the Draper Venture Network and Draper University out of California.”

Draper — who scored a huge windfall a few years back when he bought a load of bitcoin that had been seized by the U.S. government— has gone from being a Democrat to Republican to Libertarian to, well, his own party that believes California’s government’s problem is that it lacks competition. The party platform is simple: break up California.

Draper says he’s already gathered more than 600,000 signatures for his initiative, almost double the number he needs to get his plan on the ballot come Election Day. He still needs to get the signatures verified and confirmed by counties by June 13.“My goal is to get it on the ballot, and then it is up to Californians to see the beauty of a new empowerment, and run with it,’’ Draper said by email.

Meanwhile, here’s what he’s got going against him:

1. Last Time This Happened Was During the Civil War

The last time the U.S. approved the breakup of a state was in 1863, when West Virginia moved to split with Virginia at the height of the Civil War. Even then, it took a two-year legal battle and presidential approval.

President Abraham Lincoln eventually signed off on the split, but he worried at the time about the precedent it would set for states going forward. Needless to say, there is no clear process for a breakup of a state.

2. Why Would Any Republican Want This?

Even if Draper gets California’s voters to buy into the idea of a split, government law experts say the plan would probably take an act of Congress. (Again, there’s no clear-cut process.) And there’s no indication that Republicans in Washington would be amenable to a breakup.

If each of the three new California states – with a population of about 12 million to 14 million people – were granted two senators, Congress could be welcoming more Democrats into its chambers. Draper’s envisioned borders would form at least two solidly blue states.

“Why would any Republican want to create two more Democratic senators?” asked Jack Citrin, a professor of political science at the University of California at Berkeley.

Executive approval is looking even less likely. President Donald Trump and California have been clashing on everything from immigration policy to environmental regulations. Trump’s in no mood to be doing favors for the Golden State.

3. Check Draper’s Track Record

Draper’s idea might ring a bell. That’s because, in 2014, he came up with a very similar initiative to divide California into six “startup” states.

His campaign missed the deadline to make it onto the 2014 ballot and then failed to qualify for the one in 2016. While he submitted more than 1.13 million signatures that time around, officials estimated only 752,685 were valid.

Draper’s response to falling short: The state’s signature verification process was archaic and just further proof that California’s current system is dysfunctional and needs new governments.

4. Some Californians Just Want Out of the Entire U.S.

Draper’s three-state initiative has competition. Some similarly minded individuals, who are also pushing for better education and a tax overhaul, want California to remain whole but secede from the U.S. in a movement coined “Calexit.” The proponents say secession will promote peace and security, because being part of the U.S. makes the state a target for terrorism.

This movement has tried and failed in the past. It faces some major hurdles, such as a federally required constitutional amendment, a two-thirds vote in Congress and ratification by 38 states. It also says something that Texas may very well be the one state that has the power to split itself – and it hasn’t.

That all aside, Calexit has been cleared to start collecting signatures for a 2021 referendum.

5. California’s Differences Run Deep

Political disputes within California run deep. And Draper is proposing to form states out of counties that haven’t always gotten along so well.

Take the far-north region of California, where some have for years longed to unite with southern Oregon to form a new state called “Jefferson.” Many voters in that area wouldn’t exactly be thrilled with the idea of being lumped together with the Bay Area and Sacramento.

Jim Newton, a public policy lecturer at the University of California at Los Angeles, isn’t convinced people will see their lives as better served by three different governors, three different legislatures or three different Departments of Education.

“I don’t think it’s substantively sensible,” he said, calling Draper’s initiative “politically doomed.”

As for Draper himself? He said he remains hopeful. After all, he said, “Anything can happen in politics.”