民主党第三次辩论在即，谁有资格参加？

距离下一轮民主党总统候选人辩论还有将近一个月的时间，但是候选人必须在8月28日前满足一定条件，才有资格参加这次全国辩论。也就是说，他们只有不到两周的时间来获得入场券了。

今年的大选季，民主党共有20名候选人参加了党内辩论。不过要想获得参加辩论的资格，他们要么得在三大民调中获得不低于1%的支持率，要么得有不少于6.5万名独立捐赠者向其捐款。下一次也就是今年第三次民主党辩论将于9月12日至13日在休斯顿举行，本次活动由ABC和Univision联合举办。这一次，民主党全国委员会也提高了参选门槛，使得候选人比前两次更加难以获得资格。

要想参加9月的这次辩论，候选人必须获得不少于13万人的捐款，其中来自20个不同的州的捐赠者不得少于400人。同时，候选人必须在四大民调中获得不低于2%的支持率。相关民调必须是在6月28日到8月28日之间进行的，可以是全国性的，也可以是各州层面的。不过相关民调必须由预先授权的指定机构做出。候选人不得采用同一机构在同一区域内搞出的多个类似的民调结果来主张自己的资格。

虽然门槛不可谓不高，但目前已经有9名候选人通过了这个门槛。他们分别是：美国前副总统乔·拜登、参议员伯尼·桑德斯、参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦、参议员卡玛拉·哈里斯、参议员科里·布克、参议员艾米·克罗布查、印第安那州南本德市市长皮特·布蒂格、前众议员贝托·奥罗克，以及华裔企业家杨安泽。

此外还有至少两名候选人也接近了这个标准，他们分别是：亿万富翁慈善家汤姆·斯太尔，美国前住房和城市发展部部长朱利安·卡斯特罗。斯太尔在上周已经达到了筹款门槛，但至少还需要一次2%以上的民调数据支持，才有资格参加他的第一次竞选辩论。卡斯特罗同样也需要一次2%以上的民调数据支持才能够拿到入场券。

众议员图尔西·加巴德已经迈过了13万人的筹款门槛，也有一次合格的民调数据支持。如果她能在另外两次民调中达到2%以上的支持率，她也有可能参加9月的这次辩论。最后是参议员基尔斯滕·吉利布兰德，她已经有了一次合格的民调数据支持，离满足筹款标准也不远了。

由于达不到上述标准，华盛顿州州长杰伊·英斯利、作家玛丽安·威廉姆森、参议员迈克尔·班纳特、蒙大拿州州长史蒂夫·布洛克、纽约市市长白思豪、前众议员约翰·德莱尼、众议员塞斯·莫尔顿、众议员蒂姆·瑞安、前众议员乔·塞斯塔克等则不太可能参加这次辩论了。同样，前科罗拉多州州长约翰·希肯卢珀也因为没能达到第三场辩论的要求，而于上周四退出了角逐。

虽然最终可能只有9到13名候选人符合这次辩论的要求，但其余的候选人也并非完全没有机会了。民主党全国委员会已经决定，6月28日至8月28日之间的民调结果不仅适用于第三场辩论，也可以作为10月的第四场辩论的入门资格。也就是说，所有候选人还有一个月的时间来达到标准，有些目前表现暂时落后的候选人很有可能在第四场辩论中重新杀回舞台。

目前，民主党还有20多名候选人没有放弃角逐，第四场辩论的标准又定得相当宽松。因此，究竟谁能够在民主党初选中脱颖而出，目前犹未可知。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

There’s nearly a month to go until the next Democratic presidential debate—but 2020 candidates have less than two weeks to qualify, facing a deadline of August 28.

The crowded field started debate season with 20 candidates qualifying, by either hitting 1% in three polls or getting donations from 65,000 individual donors. In preparation for the third debate, to be held on September 12 and 13 in Houston and hosted by ABC and Univision, the Democratic National Committee sought to make it more difficult for candidates to meet the qualifying criteria.

This time around, a candidate must have received donations from 130,000 individuals, including at least 400 donors in a minimum of 20 different states. Candidates must also hit at least 2% in four polls to appear on the debate stage next month. Eligible polls must have been released between June 28 and August 28 and can be national or early state polls. They must also be conducted by a set of pre-approved organizations. A candidate cannot, however, use multiple polls covering the same geographic area conducted by the same organization to count toward this criteria.

Despite these requirements, nine candidates have already made the cut: former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Cory Booker, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.

There are at least two other candidates who are nearing meeting the criteria as well: new entry, billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer, and former HUD Secretary Julián Castro. Steyer met the fundraising threshold last week and needs to hit at least 2% in just one more poll in order to make his first debate appearance. Castro similarly needs just one more poll of 2% or higher.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard has exceeded the 130,000 donor threshold and has one qualifying poll. Should she reach at least 2% in two other polls, she could also appear onstage in September. The final candidate that appears to have a shot is Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who has one qualifying poll and is nearing the donor requirement.

That leaves Gov. Jay Inslee, Marianne Williamson, Sen. Michael Bennet, Gov. Steve Bullock, Mayor Bill de Blasio, former Rep. John Delaney, Rep. Seth Moulton, Rep. Tim Ryan, and former Rep. Joe Sestak—all of whom are unlikely to make it to the next debate. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who dropped out of the race last Thursday, also had not met the requirements to make it to the third debate.

Yet even though there may be just somewhere between nine and 13 candidates who meet the criteria for September’s debate, it’s still not over for the remaining candidates. The DNC has decided that polls counted toward the third debate—those conducted between June 28 and August 28—can also count toward the fourth debate, to be held in October. That means that all of the candidates will essentially have another month to meet the criteria, potentially deterring some of the lower performing candidates from dropping out of the race.

With more than 20 candidates still in the running and this fairly lax criteria to make it to the fourth debate, it remains to be seen how long it will take for the field to naturally winnow itself down.