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道琼斯指数暴跌10%,创下自1987年黑色星期一以来的最大单日跌幅

Anne Sraders
2020-03-13

标普500指数终于在周三打破了11年的牛市,紧随道琼斯进入熊市。

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熊市就在眼前。

道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数周四双双加速下跌,收盘时跌幅分别约为10%和9%。标普500指数终于在周三打破了11年的牛市,紧随道琼斯进入熊市。而道琼斯指数则创下了1987年3月以来的最大单日跌幅。

保德信金融集团首席市场策略师昆西·克罗斯比(Quincy Krosby)说,“市场在高声呼救。”

当特朗普总统周三晚间就新冠疫情发表演讲时,市场正焦急地等待着新的财政刺激措施,然而却失望地没有等来任何细节,期货(以及次日的股市)应声而落。“市场想要、需要更多的细节,”克罗斯比说。

尽管特朗普总统已暗示要把工资税调整为0%以帮助缓解焦虑情绪,但直到周四仍未宣布任何全面的财政措施。美联储周四中午宣布将增加隔夜资金操作至5000亿美元以上,但此举也只能带来短暂的乐观。

克罗斯比认为,在市场看到财政和货币双管齐下的“更可行、更有针对性的帮助”之前,抛售不会停止。

Bankrate.com的高级经济分析师马克·哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)表示,眼下的抛售规模很有可能扩大到30%。他不认为会出现经济衰退,但指出,“潘多拉的魔盒还没有完全打开”。

欧洲的股市也逼近有史以来最大跌幅,富时100指数下跌近10.9%,这是继1987年10月20日以来的第二大跌幅。斯托克50指数在周四创下了11.5%的跌幅纪录,斯托克600也随后破纪录地下跌11%。

很多公司已经迅速宣布了新冠疫情可能对收益造成的影响,但分析师们更关心的是,各公司是否会开始裁员。

挪威航空在周四的一份声明中宣布,除了暂停4000多个航班外,公司还将进行临时裁员,上限为50%。

另一个让分析师们忧心的问题是,目前的经济困境是否、以及何时会影响到消费者。

富国银行投资研究所的高级全球市场策略师斯科特·雷恩(Scott Wren)写到,“消费者坐在家里,不出门花钱,是因为他们担心会感染新冠病毒。”而在当前环境下,消费者是经济的支柱,因此这是个大问题。

克罗斯比认为,这个问题也会出现在房地产市场,因为对失业的担忧可能会让一些本打算购房的人重新考虑。

Capital Economics的资深经济学家安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunter)指出,按照目前的情况,预计二季度的GDP年化季率会下降4%。《财富》周四的一项调查也表明,75%的美国人担心新冠疫情会损害经济。

“大体而言,我们的经济免疫体系很强大,这是积极的一方面,也是目前支撑着我们的东西,”保德信的克罗斯比说。

Commonwealth Financial Network的首席投资官布拉德·麦克米伦(Brad McMillan)写到,就熊市而言,只有两次没有出现经济衰退,一次发生在1962年,一次在1987年,而且这两次虽然跌幅大,但时间都很短。他特别提到了上个月良好的就业率和信心数据,指出,“我们可以保持谨慎乐观的一个原因是,到目前为止,我们从市场上看到的担忧尚未转化成对经济本身的影响。”(财富中文网)

译者:胡萌琦

熊市就在眼前。

道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数周四双双加速下跌,收盘时跌幅分别约为10%和9%。标普500指数终于在周三打破了11年的牛市,紧随道琼斯进入熊市。而道琼斯指数则创下了1987年3月以来的最大单日跌幅。

保德信金融集团首席市场策略师昆西·克罗斯比(Quincy Krosby)说,“市场在高声呼救。”

当特朗普总统周三晚间就新冠疫情发表演讲时,市场正焦急地等待着新的财政刺激措施,然而却失望地没有等来任何细节,期货(以及次日的股市)应声而落。“市场想要、需要更多的细节,”克罗斯比说。

尽管特朗普总统已暗示要把工资税调整为0%以帮助缓解焦虑情绪,但直到周四仍未宣布任何全面的财政措施。美联储周四中午宣布将增加隔夜资金操作至5000亿美元以上,但此举也只能带来短暂的乐观。

克罗斯比认为,在市场看到财政和货币双管齐下的“更可行、更有针对性的帮助”之前,抛售不会停止。

Bankrate.com的高级经济分析师马克·哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)表示,眼下的抛售规模很有可能扩大到30%。他不认为会出现经济衰退,但指出,“潘多拉的魔盒还没有完全打开”。

欧洲的股市也逼近有史以来最大跌幅,富时100指数下跌近10.9%,这是继1987年10月20日以来的第二大跌幅。斯托克50指数在周四创下了11.5%的跌幅纪录,斯托克600也随后破纪录地下跌11%。

很多公司已经迅速宣布了新冠疫情可能对收益造成的影响,但分析师们更关心的是,各公司是否会开始裁员。

挪威航空在周四的一份声明中宣布,除了暂停4000多个航班外,公司还将进行临时裁员,上限为50%。

另一个让分析师们忧心的问题是,目前的经济困境是否、以及何时会影响到消费者。

富国银行投资研究所的高级全球市场策略师斯科特·雷恩(Scott Wren)写到,“消费者坐在家里,不出门花钱,是因为他们担心会感染新冠病毒。”而在当前环境下,消费者是经济的支柱,因此这是个大问题。

克罗斯比认为,这个问题也会出现在房地产市场,因为对失业的担忧可能会让一些本打算购房的人重新考虑。

Capital Economics的资深经济学家安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunter)指出,按照目前的情况,预计二季度的GDP年化季率会下降4%。《财富》周四的一项调查也表明,75%的美国人担心新冠疫情会损害经济。

“大体而言,我们的经济免疫体系很强大,这是积极的一方面,也是目前支撑着我们的东西,”保德信的克罗斯比说。

Commonwealth Financial Network的首席投资官布拉德·麦克米伦(Brad McMillan)写到,就熊市而言,只有两次没有出现经济衰退,一次发生在1962年,一次在1987年,而且这两次虽然跌幅大,但时间都很短。他特别提到了上个月良好的就业率和信心数据,指出,“我们可以保持谨慎乐观的一个原因是,到目前为止,我们从市场上看到的担忧尚未转化成对经济本身的影响。”(财富中文网)

译者:胡萌琦

It's a bear market out there.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 accelerated losses on Thursday, closing down roughly 10% and 9% down respectively. The S&P 500 joined the Dow in bear market territory, after the latter finally broke the 11-year bull run on Wednesday. For the Dow, it was the biggest one-day drop since March 1987.

To Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial, "It is a market … that is screaming out for help."

Markets anxiously awaited news of new fiscal stimulus to be announced during President Trump's speech on coronavirus on Wednesday night, but were disappointed with a lack of detail—sending futures (and, the next day, stocks) plunging. "The market wanted—it needed—more specifics," says Krosby.

Although President Trump has hinted at wanting to implement a 0% payroll tax to help soothe worries, no sweeping fiscal measures have been announced as of Thursday. And despite an announcement from the Fed midday on Thursday that it would increase its overnight funding operations to over $500 billion, markets were only briefly optimistic.

In fact, until markets have evidence of "more viable, targeted help" in the form of both fiscal and monetary policy, Krosby contends, we're going to continue to see sell-offs.

That sell-off could easily extend to 30%, says Mark Hamrick, Bankrate.com's senior economic analyst. He still isn't suggesting a recession is likely, but notes that "we still haven’t seen every aspect of this Pandora's Box unloaded."

In Europe, markets nearly hit record sell-offs, as the FTSE 100 dropped nearly 10.9%, its second-largest decline, behind October 20, 1987. The STOXX 50 plunged a record 11.5% on Thursday, and the STOXX 600 followed suit with a record 11%.

Many companies have been quick to announce how coronavirus might impact earnings, but the bigger question on analysts' minds are if we are going to start seeing layoffs.

Norwegian Air announced Thursday that on top of suspending over 4,000 flights, the company will lay off employees—up to 50% of its workforce temporarily—the airline said in a statement.

Another central worry is if and when the economic fallout hits the consumer.

“Consumers sitting at home and not out spending money because they fear catching the coronavirus is the ultimate negative outcome,” writes Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. And as the support-system of the economy currently, the consumer problem is a big one.

That could trickle into the housing market too, Krosby suggests, as fear over having a job or not may make some would-be homeowners rethink buying now.

As things stand, GDP is expected to decline by 4% annualized in the 2nd quarter, writes Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. To wit, per a Fortune Analytics poll Thursday, 75% of Americans are worried coronavirus will hurt the economy.

"It is positive that we came in, in essence, with our economic immune system strong, and that’s what's holding us right now," Prudential's Krosby suggests.

On the bear market front, there have only been two bear markets without a recession, in 1962 and 1987, and in both cases, the drop was dramatic but short, Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, wrote in a note. A "reason for cautious optimism is that, so far, the fear we see in the markets has not translated to the economy itself," highlighting good hiring and confidence numbers last month, McMillan notes.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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