首页 500强 活动 榜单 商业 科技 领导力 专题 品牌中心
杂志订阅

华尔街恐慌蔓延,道琼斯指数创史上单日最大跌幅

ERIK SHERMAN
2020-03-17

市场已经从对新型冠状病毒疫情的恐慌演变成对信用危机的担忧。

文本设置
小号
默认
大号
Plus(0条)

3月16日,美股再次自由落体。标普500指数开盘跌8.14%,触发本月第三次熔断,美股暂停交易15分钟。这也是近8天来美股的第三次熔断,史上第四次熔断。

截至收盘,标普500指数下跌324.89点(跌幅12.0%);道琼斯工业平均指数下跌2,997.10点(跌幅12.9%);纳斯达克下跌970.28点(跌幅12.3%);罗素2000指数下跌172.72点(跌幅14.3%)。道指创下史上单日最大跌幅。

当天也有意外的转变。宏利投资管理公司董事总经理、首席经济学家兼宏观策略总监弗朗西丝·唐纳德表示:“市场已经从对新型冠状病毒疫情的恐慌演变成对信用危机的担忧。”

导致股市暴跌的原因是美联储在周日突然宣布将联邦基金利率下调至0%,并将维持这一水平,“直到美国经济经受住了近期事件的考验,并逐渐实现其充分就业和物价稳定目标。”

图:从3月10日至16日,美股三大股指跌幅情况。数据来源:彭博社

此外,美联储重新启动了量化宽松计划,将购买5000亿美元美国国债和2000亿美元住房抵押贷款支持证券,并扩大回购,通过隔夜或短期购买美国国债,向市场注入更多流动性。

有人认为这些举措并不对症。投资调查公司Xallarap Advisory的创始人兼首席宏观策略师艾伦·苏克霍利茨基在写给《财富》杂志的信中表示:“美联储希望市场能够得到安慰。但适得其反,这些措施反而加重了市场的疑虑。”

Pacer Financial公司的Pacer交易所交易基金发行商部门总裁肖恩·奥哈拉也认同这种观点。他向《财富》表示:“这些举措让投资者感觉美联储慌了手脚。这些正常情况下能让投资者安心的举措,现在似乎让我们比以往更加担心。”

关于美联储的动机,有人持不同观点。

银率网高级副总裁兼首席金融分析师格雷戈·麦克布赖德告诉《财富》:“美联储的措施并不是拯救经济或金融市场的灵丹妙药。相反,他们是在积极防止信用市场进一步紧缩,而将利率下调到接近零的水平,是为了在疫情结束之后为低成本借贷奠定基础。”

美联储担心的是流动性收缩,以及美国国债市场的债券销售能力下降。美国国债市场是全球经济系统至关重要的一部分。嘉信金融研究中心固定收益投资策略师考林·马丁称:“美联储所做的一切……目的是保证持续的流动性,确保市场正常运行。”

有人担心美联储可能已经无牌可打。金融情报服务公司Qontigo的全球应用研究总监梅丽莎·布朗认为:“现在美联储已经没有其他底牌,它已经无计可施。”

唐纳德表示,现在的情况正在“从一般性衰退演变成一场金融危机。”投资者现在所担心的是,是否有足够的流动性可以保证全球金融系统正常运行。

而对于股市而言,现在的问题是投资者会怎么做,以及政府会采取哪些财政刺激政策。

唐纳德说:“没有政策制定者能够避免即将到来的经济衰退。但如果政策能够及时应对,可以帮助我们更快、更有力地走出衰退。”

我们现在能找到的好消息是,股市似乎即将见底,这是投资者可以买进的信号。

唐纳德说:“当前的市场如此糟糕,而且你确信情况还会继续恶化,恐慌将四处蔓延。在这种形势下,当市场恐慌情绪达到最高峰的时候,就是抄底的好时机。”

但她补充说:“我认为恐慌还没有达到最高峰。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

3月16日,美股再次自由落体。标普500指数开盘跌8.14%,触发本月第三次熔断,美股暂停交易15分钟。这也是近8天来美股的第三次熔断,史上第四次熔断。

截至收盘,标普500指数下跌324.89点(跌幅12.0%);道琼斯工业平均指数下跌2,997.10点(跌幅12.9%);纳斯达克下跌970.28点(跌幅12.3%);罗素2000指数下跌172.72点(跌幅14.3%)。道指创下史上单日最大跌幅。

当天也有意外的转变。宏利投资管理公司董事总经理、首席经济学家兼宏观策略总监弗朗西丝·唐纳德表示:“市场已经从对新型冠状病毒疫情的恐慌演变成对信用危机的担忧。”

导致股市暴跌的原因是美联储在周日突然宣布将联邦基金利率下调至0%,并将维持这一水平,“直到美国经济经受住了近期事件的考验,并逐渐实现其充分就业和物价稳定目标。”

此外,美联储重新启动了量化宽松计划,将购买5000亿美元美国国债和2000亿美元住房抵押贷款支持证券,并扩大回购,通过隔夜或短期购买美国国债,向市场注入更多流动性。

有人认为这些举措并不对症。投资调查公司Xallarap Advisory的创始人兼首席宏观策略师艾伦·苏克霍利茨基在写给《财富》杂志的信中表示:“美联储希望市场能够得到安慰。但适得其反,这些措施反而加重了市场的疑虑。”

Pacer Financial公司的Pacer交易所交易基金发行商部门总裁肖恩·奥哈拉也认同这种观点。他向《财富》表示:“这些举措让投资者感觉美联储慌了手脚。这些正常情况下能让投资者安心的举措,现在似乎让我们比以往更加担心。”

关于美联储的动机,有人持不同观点。

银率网高级副总裁兼首席金融分析师格雷戈·麦克布赖德告诉《财富》:“美联储的措施并不是拯救经济或金融市场的灵丹妙药。相反,他们是在积极防止信用市场进一步紧缩,而将利率下调到接近零的水平,是为了在疫情结束之后为低成本借贷奠定基础。”

美联储担心的是流动性收缩,以及美国国债市场的债券销售能力下降。美国国债市场是全球经济系统至关重要的一部分。嘉信金融研究中心固定收益投资策略师考林·马丁称:“美联储所做的一切……目的是保证持续的流动性,确保市场正常运行。”

有人担心美联储可能已经无牌可打。金融情报服务公司Qontigo的全球应用研究总监梅丽莎·布朗认为:“现在美联储已经没有其他底牌,它已经无计可施。”

唐纳德表示,现在的情况正在“从一般性衰退演变成一场金融危机。”投资者现在所担心的是,是否有足够的流动性可以保证全球金融系统正常运行。

而对于股市而言,现在的问题是投资者会怎么做,以及政府会采取哪些财政刺激政策。

唐纳德说:“没有政策制定者能够避免即将到来的经济衰退。但如果政策能够及时应对,可以帮助我们更快、更有力地走出衰退。”

我们现在能找到的好消息是,股市似乎即将见底,这是投资者可以买进的信号。

唐纳德说:“当前的市场如此糟糕,而且你确信情况还会继续恶化,恐慌将四处蔓延。在这种形势下,当市场恐慌情绪达到最高峰的时候,就是抄底的好时机。”

但她补充说:“我认为恐慌还没有达到最高峰。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Another day, another massive freefall.

The S&P 500 fell 324.89 (12.0%); the Dow Industrials was down 2,997.10 (12.9%); the Nasdaq lost 970.28 (12.3%) and the Russell 2000 was off 172.72 (14.3%). The Dow's drop represented the largest one-day point loss ever.

There was also a twist today. "This market has moved beyond coronavirus and into credit crisis," said Frances Donald, managing director, chief economist, and head of macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management.

It comes down to the Federal Reserve's Sunday surprise, starting with a drop to a 0% federal funds rate that it will maintain "until the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals."

Additionally, the Fed will effectively resurrect quantitative easing, purchasing $500 billion in Treasurys and $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, and expand its repo operations, in which it purchases Treasurys on an overnight or short-term basis to provide more liquidity to markets.

Some felt the efforts were more a miss than a hit. "The Fed hoped that the market would take solace," Allen Sukholitsky, founder and chief macro strategist at Xallarap Advisory, wrote in a note to Fortune. "Instead, the market became suspicious."

"This makes it look like the Fed is panicking," Sean O'Hara, president of Pacer ETF Distributors at Pacer Financial, agreed in a note to Fortune. "What normally would look like something reassuring, is now looking like we all should be much more worried than we were."

Others disagreed about the intent.

"The Fed's moves were not designed to be a panacea for the economy or financial markets," Greg McBride, senior vice president & chief financial analyst at Bankrate, noted to Fortune. "Instead, they are acting aggressively to prevent further tightening of credit markets and have cut interest rates to near zero to set the stage for low cost borrowing once the virus has passed."

What has worried the Fed was contracting liquidity and lowered ability to sell bonds in the Treasury bond market, a critical part of the global economic system. "What the Fed has been doing … [is] making sure liquidity continues and that markets can function properly," said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist of the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Others were worried that there's no more ammunition. "The Fed has nothing more to do now and there's nowhere to go," said Melissa Brown, global director of applied research at financial intelligence service Qontigo."

Conditions are "moving away from garden variety recession to a financial crisis," Donald said. The worry is whether there is enough liquidity to keep global financial systems working they way they should.

For equity markets, the question is what investors will do now. And what governments will implement in terms of fiscal stimulus.

"No policymaker can help us avoid the recession that is coming," Donald said. "But policies can help us come out faster and stronger if they're targeted in time."

The good news, such as can be found, is that the bottom, while not quite here, seems on its way, and that could be a sign for investors to buy.

"When the market is so bad and you believe it's only going to get worse and panic is running everywhere—when panic has peaked, that is a good time," Donald said.

However, "I don't think panic has peaked," she added.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
0条Plus
精彩评论
评论

撰写或查看更多评论

请打开财富Plus APP

前往打开