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美股暴跌不止,高盛依旧乐观

Anne Sraders
2020-03-18

高盛表示,股市当前还未见底,但今年会出现大幅反弹。

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高盛上周五表示,标普500指数或将在年中跌至2000点——相较当前下跌约20%,与历史高点相比下跌41%。并称,其正在结合美联储模型和历史数据以预测触底位置,且已在两周内两次下调了每股预测收益。该公司最新预测显示,标普500指数每股收益将下降5%。

嘉信理财交易和衍生品副总裁兰迪·弗雷德里克认为,市场很容易就会触及2018年12月最低点,2351点。弗雷德里对《财富》杂志表示:“虽然周一较为接近底部,但目前尚未触底。”但考虑到标普500指数在周一盘中曾跌至2400点,预计可能很快就将触达这一底线了——“在这个市场里,5分钟可能就会蒸发50点,”他说。

上周日,美联储紧急宣布降息,基准利率已降至接近零点,但这似乎并未给投资者情绪带来积极影响。周一,股市刚开盘就暴跌超余7%,再次触发熔断机制。

预测股市将呈更大跌幅的,绝不止高盛一家。独立顾问联盟首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利认为股市走向很清晰。“前景不明朗时,市场自然趋势当然是下行,”扎卡雷利在一则告示中表示。“但我预测,只要一出台财政刺激措施或出现有关新冠肺炎的积极消息,市场就会出现大幅反弹。”

此般背景下,投资者该作何选择?CFRA萨姆·斯托瓦尔告示中建议,不要“靠抛售来锁定下跌风险,这会成为投资组合的最大敌人”。

Bankrate.com首席金融分析师格雷格·麦克布莱德也认同这一建议。他指出,尽管市场存在恐惧和不确定性,但投资者应着眼于未来,不要受困于经济停摆的问题,要考虑商业活动和生活恢复正常后的情况,“考虑5年至10年以后的状况,这可能有助于防止发生令人遗憾的下意识抛售行为,让潜在的买入机会显露出来。”他说。

但事实证明,许多投资者并没有把这一建议放在心上——周一,道琼斯指数和标普500指数盘中均暴跌逾11%。

嘉信理财弗雷德里克认为,最糟糕的情况可能还在后头。由于市场暴跌速度如此之快,伴随着新冠病毒传播速度也相当迅速,我们还没看到经济数据受损的全貌。弗雷德里克指出,周一帝国制造业指数显示,3月份制造业指数跌至创纪录的-21.5,下降了34.4。该数据不仅远低于4.8的预期,更是自2009年以来的最低水平。弗雷德里克表示,“在未来几周,我们将不可避免地看到,所有数据都会严重恶化。”

但市场也并非毫无希望。高盛坚称,标普500指数到今年底可能会回升至3200点——比当前上涨大约27%。(财富中文网)

译者:Emily

高盛上周五表示,标普500指数或将在年中跌至2000点——相较当前下跌约20%,与历史高点相比下跌41%。并称,其正在结合美联储模型和历史数据以预测触底位置,且已在两周内两次下调了每股预测收益。该公司最新预测显示,标普500指数每股收益将下降5%。

嘉信理财交易和衍生品副总裁兰迪·弗雷德里克认为,市场很容易就会触及2018年12月最低点,2351点。弗雷德里对《财富》杂志表示:“虽然周一较为接近底部,但目前尚未触底。”但考虑到标普500指数在周一盘中曾跌至2400点,预计可能很快就将触达这一底线了——“在这个市场里,5分钟可能就会蒸发50点,”他说。

上周日,美联储紧急宣布降息,基准利率已降至接近零点,但这似乎并未给投资者情绪带来积极影响。周一,股市刚开盘就暴跌超余7%,再次触发熔断机制。

预测股市将呈更大跌幅的,绝不止高盛一家。独立顾问联盟首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利认为股市走向很清晰。“前景不明朗时,市场自然趋势当然是下行,”扎卡雷利在一则告示中表示。“但我预测,只要一出台财政刺激措施或出现有关新冠肺炎的积极消息,市场就会出现大幅反弹。”

此般背景下,投资者该作何选择?CFRA萨姆·斯托瓦尔告示中建议,不要“靠抛售来锁定下跌风险,这会成为投资组合的最大敌人”。

Bankrate.com首席金融分析师格雷格·麦克布莱德也认同这一建议。他指出,尽管市场存在恐惧和不确定性,但投资者应着眼于未来,不要受困于经济停摆的问题,要考虑商业活动和生活恢复正常后的情况,“考虑5年至10年以后的状况,这可能有助于防止发生令人遗憾的下意识抛售行为,让潜在的买入机会显露出来。”他说。

但事实证明,许多投资者并没有把这一建议放在心上——周一,道琼斯指数和标普500指数盘中均暴跌逾11%。

嘉信理财弗雷德里克认为,最糟糕的情况可能还在后头。由于市场暴跌速度如此之快,伴随着新冠病毒传播速度也相当迅速,我们还没看到经济数据受损的全貌。弗雷德里克指出,周一帝国制造业指数显示,3月份制造业指数跌至创纪录的-21.5,下降了34.4。该数据不仅远低于4.8的预期,更是自2009年以来的最低水平。弗雷德里克表示,“在未来几周,我们将不可避免地看到,所有数据都会严重恶化。”

但市场也并非毫无希望。高盛坚称,标普500指数到今年底可能会回升至3200点——比当前上涨大约27%。(财富中文网)

译者:Emily

The firm said Friday that the S&P 500 could see a mid-year trough at 2,000—that's down around 20% from current levels and 41% from its all-time high. Goldman says it is using the Fed model, a Dividend Discount Model, and history to come to that bottom—and has already cut its EPS forecast twice in two weeks (the firm is now forecasting S&P 500 EPS will decline by 5%) .

For those like Randy Frederick, the vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab, markets could easily test the lows from December of 2018, which is 2,351 on the S&P. "We got relatively close [on Monday] but we didn’t get there," Frederick tells Fortune. But given that the S&P 500 hit around 2,400 in intraday trading on Monday, it's likely the index might test that support level soon—"50 points could evaporate in five minutes in this market," he says.

An emergency Fed rate cut on Sunday that whittled interest rates effectively down to zero seemingly had no impact on investor sentiment, as stocks plunged over 7% right at the bell, triggering yet another circuit breaker.

But Goldman is by no means alone in seeing a steeper drop on the horizon. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, notes the trajectory is clear: "In the absence of more clarity, the market’s natural direction will be down," Zaccarelli said in a note. "However, I would expect sharp bounce backs whenever fiscal stimulus and/or more positive Covid-19 news develops."

The message for investors this week? Don't "become their portfolio’s worst enemy by locking in these declines by selling out," CFRA's Sam Stovall suggests in a note.

That rings true for Bankrate.com's chief financial analyst Greg McBride: "Despite fear and uncertainty, investors should think to the future, beyond the economic pause and when business and life resumes normalcy," he said in a note. "Thinking 5, 10 years down the road could prevent that regrettable knee-jerk selling reaction and reveal potential buying opportunities."

Many investors were not taking that message to heart on Monday, however, as the Dow and S&P 500 both plunged more than 11% in intraday trading.

Still, Charles Schwab's Frederick thinks the worst may be yet to come. Because the market plunge has been so fast (and the spread of coronavirus so rapid), we haven't seen much impact on economic data—yet. Frederick points to the Empire State manufacturing index data released Monday, which saw a record 34.4 point drop, coming in at negative 21.5 in March—that's not only way off estimates of a 4.8 reading, but is also the lowest level since 2009. Frederick says it's "inevitable we’re going to see some serious deterioration in all the data over the next few weeks."

But all hope is not lost. Goldman maintains the S&P 500 could likely end the year back up at 3,200 points—which would represent a roughly 27% increase from current levels.

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