美国国会正在为救市计划吵得不可开交。该计划将耗费纳税人数万亿美元。但值得注意的是,面对新冠疫情危机,有一种强有力的经济刺激措施无需任何成本,那就是取消外国进口关税,并说服全球贸易伙伴同样取消对美国商品的关税。
很可惜,对于这项措施,美国的政策制定者们视而不见。关税是对商品征收的税费,即使临时取消关税,也能大幅降低消费者购买从洗衣机到运动鞋等各种商品的价格,提高美国制造商的效率,并扩大对外出口。比如恢复对中国的大豆出口,可以增加农民收入,而且不会加重联邦政府沉重的债务负担。
虽然实施零关税这种措施在华盛顿没有市场,但笔者采访过多位经济学家,以评估疫情可能对经济产生的破坏,这种措施得到了经济学家们的支持。有两位经济学家几周前已经开始主张推行这项政策。资产管理巨头资本集团的经济学家贾里德·弗朗兹表示:“这项措施可以马上执行,不需要获得国会批准。当前这种危机时刻需要取消全球关税,美国应该发挥带头作用。”
太盟投资集团负责人、经济学博士单伟建认为,应对即将到来的经济衰退,取消关税是一种重要手段。太盟投资集团是亚洲最大的私募股权公司。他表示:“关税在经济中占很大一部分。经济繁荣时期,我们或许感受不到。但当经济衰退的时候,关税会进一步抑制需求,增加消费者的成本。”单伟建博士建议美国取消所有关税,并要求贸易伙伴国家提供互惠待遇,而不是像过去两年一样针锋相对地提高关税,结果导致国内经济受到伤害。
大批美国企业呼吁政府采取措施。虽然钢铝等行业非常重视高关税,因为高关税可以减少来自低成本进口商品的竞争,但多数行业都将从自由贸易中受益,因此呼吁降低关税。随着数十年来最惨烈的经济衰退加速,许多行业都请求华盛顿采取贸易救济措施。3月初,代表照明、果汁、休闲车等各行各业的100多个行业组织致信美国总统特朗普和其他政府高官,请求政府取消对中国商品和全球钢材加征的进口关税。特朗普的贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗回绝了他们的请求。他告诉《华尔街日报》:“取消或降低对华关税,等于美国就业和经济增长付出更高的代价,结果却救助了中国经济。”
降低关税能带来多大的刺激效果?目前,特朗普加征的关税涵盖了价值3600亿美元的中国进口商品,平均关税水平为19.3%。此外,他还对超过300亿美元全球进口钢、铝征收了巨额关税。加征关税付出的代价主要是经济学家所说的“无谓成本”。虽然关税提高了,但美国公司仍需要继续从中国采购机械工具或纺织品。在这种情况下,美国的税收收入,与制造商和消费者支付的更高价格,实际上是相互抵消的。例如,美国每年拿出数十亿美元关税收入,向因中国的反制措施收入减少的农民发放补贴。因此,关税收入补偿了更高的价格,所以在很大程度上来说,这种交换对美国经济来说,得失相抵。
加征关税导致越来越多美国制造商不再从中国采购商品,而是转向了其他国家的供应商,但这些国家的商品价格高于中国以前的水平。假如一家汽车厂商去年从中国购买一个零部件的价格是100美元。关税增加迫使中国制造商将价格提高到120美元。所以美国汽车厂商把订单转移到一家马来西亚供应商,但价格是110美元。而且美国从这笔交易中得不到关税收入。但汽车厂商却额外支付了10美元或10%,只是因为关税使其不再向全世界效率最高的中国制造商采购。将这个差额乘以成千上万种商品,可以看出与特朗普加征关税以前相比,美国消费者购买大部分商品都要支付更高的价格。
这笔10美元的额外成本就是无谓负担。每一美元无谓成本会减少一美元国民收入,这是对经济的直接伤害。
去年5月,纽约联邦储备银行网站上发表了一篇文章。在文章中,来自哥伦比亚大学、普林斯顿大学和纽约联邦储备银行的经济学家们计算了特朗普对约3500亿美元中国商品加征关税所产生的无谓成本。他们计算出每个美国家庭每年的无谓负担为620美元,总计高达800亿美元。别忘了,特朗普还对超过300亿美元进口钢、铝征收了巨额关税。根据合理估计,约4000亿美元出口商品的无谓成本约为900亿美元。贸易摩擦的代价不止如此。面对特朗普的咄咄逼人,中国采取了反制措施,对以农产品和钢材为主的1100亿美元美国出口商品加征关税。巨额关税使美国对华出口遭遇重创。据《财富》杂志估计,中国的反制将使美国经济每年额外损失200亿美元。
如果特朗普政府取消对中国商品和全球钢铝的进口关税,中国也采取对等措施,美国经济每年将增长约1100亿美元。首先,消除中国商品和全球钢铝制品进口的无谓成本可以增加900亿美元,另外200亿美元来自对华农产品和钢材出口增长。去年,美国的GDP约为21万亿美元,额外增加1100亿美元相当于GDP增长了0.5%。
如果特朗普政府同时取消对其他国家农产品和纺织品等进口商品加征的关税,其他国家也投桃报李,取消对美国商品的关税,零关税政策将使美国GDP再增长0.1至0.2个百分点,相当于未来美国GDP可以额外增长0.7%。
这个数字听起来有些微不足道,因为今年,多数银行和研究机构预测美国的国民收入将减少5%甚至更多。但它代表了不小的数字。在疫情爆发之前各界普遍预测的美国GDP增长率是2%。在此基础上增长0.7%,增长率高达35%。如果国民收入减少5%,额外增加的1100亿美元可以抵消其中的七分之一。甚至可能更多。对于美国各行业最好的礼物:特朗普从贸易战士变身为和平使者的信号。2018年逐步增加的关税,扼杀了美国经济的活力。早在疫情爆发之前,美国经济已经出现疲态。如果特朗普保证贸易保护主义不再是其核心政策,就能为美国经济重新注入生机。
当然,特朗普不太可能推翻他的标志性政策,毕竟事实证明,到目前为止这条政策在他的支持者当中很受欢迎。但谁知道呢?他已经表现出了对待这个问题的灵活性。2018年,他取消了之前对加拿大进口钢铝征收的关税。今年1月,他与中国签署了第一阶段贸易协议,下调了对1120亿美元中国消费品的进口关税,并暂停对1600美元中国出口到美国的商品加征关税。第一阶段贸易协议受到市场欢迎,并在2020年初提振了美国的经济增长前景。
特朗普是个特立独行的人,他经常会突然改变方向,抛弃曾经信任的顾问。弗朗兹表示:“特朗普是个商人。他可以在贸易方面展现出全球领导力。”尽管特朗普这样做的可能性不大,但哪怕他在一定程度上降低关税,就能给美国带来巨大的回报。(财富中文网)
译者:Biz
美国国会正在为救市计划吵得不可开交。该计划将耗费纳税人数万亿美元。但值得注意的是,面对新冠疫情危机,有一种强有力的经济刺激措施无需任何成本,那就是取消外国进口关税,并说服全球贸易伙伴同样取消对美国商品的关税。
很可惜,对于这项措施,美国的政策制定者们视而不见。关税是对商品征收的税费,即使临时取消关税,也能大幅降低消费者购买从洗衣机到运动鞋等各种商品的价格,提高美国制造商的效率,并扩大对外出口。比如恢复对中国的大豆出口,可以增加农民收入,而且不会加重联邦政府沉重的债务负担。
虽然实施零关税这种措施在华盛顿没有市场,但笔者采访过多位经济学家,以评估疫情可能对经济产生的破坏,这种措施得到了经济学家们的支持。有两位经济学家几周前已经开始主张推行这项政策。资产管理巨头资本集团的经济学家贾里德·弗朗兹表示:“这项措施可以马上执行,不需要获得国会批准。当前这种危机时刻需要取消全球关税,美国应该发挥带头作用。”
太盟投资集团负责人、经济学博士单伟建认为,应对即将到来的经济衰退,取消关税是一种重要手段。太盟投资集团是亚洲最大的私募股权公司。他表示:“关税在经济中占很大一部分。经济繁荣时期,我们或许感受不到。但当经济衰退的时候,关税会进一步抑制需求,增加消费者的成本。”单伟建博士建议美国取消所有关税,并要求贸易伙伴国家提供互惠待遇,而不是像过去两年一样针锋相对地提高关税,结果导致国内经济受到伤害。
大批美国企业呼吁政府采取措施。虽然钢铝等行业非常重视高关税,因为高关税可以减少来自低成本进口商品的竞争,但多数行业都将从自由贸易中受益,因此呼吁降低关税。随着数十年来最惨烈的经济衰退加速,许多行业都请求华盛顿采取贸易救济措施。3月初,代表照明、果汁、休闲车等各行各业的100多个行业组织致信美国总统特朗普和其他政府高官,请求政府取消对中国商品和全球钢材加征的进口关税。特朗普的贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗回绝了他们的请求。他告诉《华尔街日报》:“取消或降低对华关税,等于美国就业和经济增长付出更高的代价,结果却救助了中国经济。”
降低关税能带来多大的刺激效果?目前,特朗普加征的关税涵盖了价值3600亿美元的中国进口商品,平均关税水平为19.3%。此外,他还对超过300亿美元全球进口钢、铝征收了巨额关税。加征关税付出的代价主要是经济学家所说的“无谓成本”。虽然关税提高了,但美国公司仍需要继续从中国采购机械工具或纺织品。在这种情况下,美国的税收收入,与制造商和消费者支付的更高价格,实际上是相互抵消的。例如,美国每年拿出数十亿美元关税收入,向因中国的反制措施收入减少的农民发放补贴。因此,关税收入补偿了更高的价格,所以在很大程度上来说,这种交换对美国经济来说,得失相抵。
加征关税导致越来越多美国制造商不再从中国采购商品,而是转向了其他国家的供应商,但这些国家的商品价格高于中国以前的水平。假如一家汽车厂商去年从中国购买一个零部件的价格是100美元。关税增加迫使中国制造商将价格提高到120美元。所以美国汽车厂商把订单转移到一家马来西亚供应商,但价格是110美元。而且美国从这笔交易中得不到关税收入。但汽车厂商却额外支付了10美元或10%,只是因为关税使其不再向全世界效率最高的中国制造商采购。将这个差额乘以成千上万种商品,可以看出与特朗普加征关税以前相比,美国消费者购买大部分商品都要支付更高的价格。
这笔10美元的额外成本就是无谓负担。每一美元无谓成本会减少一美元国民收入,这是对经济的直接伤害。
去年5月,纽约联邦储备银行网站上发表了一篇文章。在文章中,来自哥伦比亚大学、普林斯顿大学和纽约联邦储备银行的经济学家们计算了特朗普对约3500亿美元中国商品加征关税所产生的无谓成本。他们计算出每个美国家庭每年的无谓负担为620美元,总计高达800亿美元。别忘了,特朗普还对超过300亿美元进口钢、铝征收了巨额关税。根据合理估计,约4000亿美元出口商品的无谓成本约为900亿美元。贸易摩擦的代价不止如此。面对特朗普的咄咄逼人,中国采取了反制措施,对以农产品和钢材为主的1100亿美元美国出口商品加征关税。巨额关税使美国对华出口遭遇重创。据《财富》杂志估计,中国的反制将使美国经济每年额外损失200亿美元。
如果特朗普政府取消对中国商品和全球钢铝的进口关税,中国也采取对等措施,美国经济每年将增长约1100亿美元。首先,消除中国商品和全球钢铝制品进口的无谓成本可以增加900亿美元,另外200亿美元来自对华农产品和钢材出口增长。去年,美国的GDP约为21万亿美元,额外增加1100亿美元相当于GDP增长了0.5%。
如果特朗普政府同时取消对其他国家农产品和纺织品等进口商品加征的关税,其他国家也投桃报李,取消对美国商品的关税,零关税政策将使美国GDP再增长0.1至0.2个百分点,相当于未来美国GDP可以额外增长0.7%。
这个数字听起来有些微不足道,因为今年,多数银行和研究机构预测美国的国民收入将减少5%甚至更多。但它代表了不小的数字。在疫情爆发之前各界普遍预测的美国GDP增长率是2%。在此基础上增长0.7%,增长率高达35%。如果国民收入减少5%,额外增加的1100亿美元可以抵消其中的七分之一。甚至可能更多。对于美国各行业最好的礼物:特朗普从贸易战士变身为和平使者的信号。2018年逐步增加的关税,扼杀了美国经济的活力。早在疫情爆发之前,美国经济已经出现疲态。如果特朗普保证贸易保护主义不再是其核心政策,就能为美国经济重新注入生机。
当然,特朗普不太可能推翻他的标志性政策,毕竟事实证明,到目前为止这条政策在他的支持者当中很受欢迎。但谁知道呢?他已经表现出了对待这个问题的灵活性。2018年,他取消了之前对加拿大进口钢铝征收的关税。今年1月,他与中国签署了第一阶段贸易协议,下调了对1120亿美元中国消费品的进口关税,并暂停对1600美元中国出口到美国的商品加征关税。第一阶段贸易协议受到市场欢迎,并在2020年初提振了美国的经济增长前景。
特朗普是个特立独行的人,他经常会突然改变方向,抛弃曾经信任的顾问。弗朗兹表示:“特朗普是个商人。他可以在贸易方面展现出全球领导力。”尽管特朗普这样做的可能性不大,但哪怕他在一定程度上降低关税,就能给美国带来巨大的回报。(财富中文网)
译者:Biz
At a time when Congress is hotly debating a bailout package that could cost taxpayers several trillion with a tall “T,” it’s remarkable that policymakers are ignoring a powerful stimulus that can be deployed cost-free to blunt the coronavirus crisis: eliminating all tariffs on foreign imports and persuading our global trading partners to drop their duties on U.S. goods. Tariffs are taxes, and lifting them, even temporarily, would substantially lower prices to consumers on everything from washing machines to sneakers, boost the efficiency of U.S. manufacturers, and swell our exports—think of recharging our soybeans sales to China, swelling farmers’ incomes without adding a nickel to the mountainous federal debt.
Though the zero-tariff option is getting no traction in Washington, the idea wins a ringing endorsement from the economists I’ve spoken to in assessing the looming damage from the pandemic. Two of them began advocating the policy weeks ago. “It can be done instantaneously without congressional support,” says Jared Franz, an economist at asset management colossus Capital Group. “These desperate times call for cutting global tariffs to zero, with the U.S. leading the way.”
Weijian Shan, a Ph.D. economist who heads PAG, the largest private equity firm in Asia, lauds the idea as an essential counterweight to coming contraction. “Tariffs take a chunk out of the economy, which is less felt in a booming economy but which will further dampen demand and cost customers at a time when they are stretched,” he says. Shan recommends that the U.S. eliminate all duties and request reciprocal treatment from our trading partners, in a reversal of the tit-for-tat tariff hikes that have so damaged our economy over the past two years.
A wide swath of American business is calling for action. While industries such as steel and aluminum prize high tariffs because they curb competition from low-cost imports, most sectors benefit from free trade, and say so. As the steepest economic slide in decades quickens, they’re requesting trade relief from Washington. In early March, more than 100 business groups representing industries as varied as lighting, juices, and recreational vehicles wrote to President Trump and other officials requesting the elimination of the duties that the administration imposed on imports of Chinese goods, as well as steel imported from around the world. Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro waved off their plea, telling the Wall Street Journal, “To eliminate or lower the China tariffs would amount to a bailout for the China economy at the expense of even more American jobs and growth.”
How much of a boost would scotching tariffs provide? Currently, $360 billion in Chinese imports are covered by Trump-imposed duties that average 19.3%. In addition, he’s hit over $30 billion in global steel and aluminum imports with heavy tariffs. The price these taxes exact consists mainly of what economists call “deadweight costs.” When U.S. companies keep buying machine tools or textiles from China in spite of the higher duties, the U.S. collects tax revenue that offsets the higher prices to manufacturers and consumers. For example, the U.S. is channeling that revenue to furnish several billion dollars a year in subsidies to farmers whose revenues got hit by the barriers China raised in retaliation. Hence, the tariff revenue compensates for higher prices, so for the most part,the exchange is a wash to our economy.
But the higher tariffs rise, the more U.S. producers stop buying from China and source from suppliers in other countries that charge more than the Chinese used to. Say an automaker was buying a part from China that cost $100 last year. Tacking on the new tariffs is forcing the Chinese producer to raise its price to $120. So the U.S. manufacturer shifts orders to a Malaysian supplier that charges $110. The U.S. gets no tariff revenue from that sale. But the carmaker is paying $10 or 10% more, strictly because the duties prevent it from sourcing from the world’s most efficient producers in China. When those differences are multiplied by hundreds of thousands of products, U.S. consumers end up paying a lot more for much of what they buy than they did in the pre-Trump-tariff era.
That extra cost—the $10 in our example—is the deadweight burden. Every dollar in deadweight cost reduces national income by the same amount and is a direct hit to our economy.
In a paper published last May for a New York Federal Reserve website, economists from Columbia, Princeton, and the N.Y. Fed calculated the deadweight costs of Trump tariffs then covering around $350 billion in Chinese products. They put the annual burden at $620 per U.S. household, or a total of $80 billion. Keep in mind that Trump also hit over $30 billion in steel and aluminum imports with heavy duties. All told, a reasonable estimate of the deadweight costs on almost $400 billion in exports is around $90 billion. The trade war’s toll doesn’t stop there. Trump’s offensive prompted China to fire back with high tariffs on $110 billion in U.S. exports, chiefly agricultural commodities and steel. Those big taxes have hammered our sales to China. By Fortune’s estimate, the retaliatory duties are subtracting another $20 billion a year from the U.S. economy.
If the administration erased tariffs only on Chinese and global steel and aluminum imports, and China responded by erasing duties on our exports, our economy would swell by roughly $110 billion a year. That’s the $90 billion from eliminating deadweight costs on Chinese goods plus steel and aluminum, plus $20 billion from boosting our farm and steel sales to China. On last year’s GDP of around $21 trillion, the extra $110 billion would add 0.5 points to growth.
But if Trump managed to eliminate the additional tariffs we impose on other nations, mainly for textiles and farm products, and those nations returned the favor by dropping duties on the goods they buy from us, the zero-tariff policy would likely add another tenth of a point or two, adding, say, 0.7% of GDP to our future rate of growth.
That may not sound like much in a year when most banks and research firms predict that national income will plummet by 5% or even more. But it’s a big number. Adding 0.7% to the widespread forecast of 2% that prevailed before the virus struck would have lifted growth by 35%. That cushion could offset one-seventh of a 5% downturn. Or more. The greatest gift to U.S. industry: the signal that Trump is switching from trade warrior to peacemaker. It was the ratcheting up in tariffs during 2018 that took the spark out of the Trump economy. Assurances that protectionism is no longer a core policy could unleash animal spirits that went dormant even before the virus hit.
Of course, Trump is unlikely to reverse a signature policy that has so far proved popular with his base. But who knows? He’s already shown flexibility on the issue. In 2018, he reversed course by removing duties on steel and aluminum imports from Canada that he’d previously imposed. In January, he signed the Phase One deal that lowered tariffs on $112 billion in consumer goods from China and put threatened tariffs on another $160 billion in its exports to the U.S. on hold. Phase One cheered the markets and helped lift the nation’s growth prospects at the start of 2020.
Trump is a maverick who often veers in new directions and dumps once-trusted advisers. “Trump is a dealmaker,” says Franz. “He can show global leadership on trade.” That Trump will do it is a long shot. But going even part way would pay off bigly.