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“灾难降临”:冠状病毒在3月可能夺走美国600万工作岗位

Lance Lambert
2020-03-27

越来越多的州下令非必需行业的企业停工,以遏制新冠病毒传播,这导致失业率大增。

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裁员大潮汹涌而至。

穆迪信息咨询向《财富》杂志提供的估算数据显示,随着美国企业以及航空和邮轮等行业纷纷裁员,3月失业人数可能增加500万至600万人。该失业数字将超过美国历史上任何一个月,也会超过2009年3月80多万人失业的记录,当月也是2007年至2009年经济大衰退期间失业最高峰。与此同时,越来越多的州下令非必需行业的企业停工,以遏制新冠病毒传播。

“灾难降临。我已经想不出更惨的词了。如果未来几天政府不出台措施支持(企业和家庭),就是末日,”穆迪信息咨询首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示。鉴于美国劳工统计局3月就业报告只收集了截至3月12日一周的数据,马克估计的500万至600万失业人数并不会出现在报告中。他预计,劳工统计局3月报告仅会显示约5万人失业,4月的报告才会披露数百万人失业。

接下来几个月里,赞迪预计失业率将从2月的3.5%跃升到两位数。过去30年里,单月失业率达到两位数只出现过一次。

随着失业救济申请人数激增,周一俄亥俄州等州申请失业救济的网站濒临崩溃。原因很明显:3月15日至19日,俄亥俄州共有139468人申请失业救济,之前一周为4815人。

3月各行业失业分布并不均匀。酒店、餐馆、理发店和游乐园等行业正大量裁员。与此同时,亚马逊和沃尔玛等公司正大举招聘员工,以满足消费者恐慌购物需求。目前许多专业人士也在赋闲,因为公司规定只能远程办公。

“从很多方面来看,这场衰退非常严重也很不寻常,衰退持续时间越长损失就越大。通常来说遇上经济衰退时,政府会出台措施刺激需求,但现在没法鼓励人们出门……往常的措施并不适用,”麻省理工学院经济学教授大卫•奥特表示。他鼓励政府集中资源帮助家庭维持收支。

赞迪认为,如果今夏经济能回暖,2020年底前失业率有望回落到6%。2021年随着受抑制的需求爆发,推动经济步入正轨,失业率还会进一步下降。(财富中文网)

译者:Feb

裁员大潮汹涌而至。

穆迪信息咨询向《财富》杂志提供的估算数据显示,随着美国企业以及航空和邮轮等行业纷纷裁员,3月失业人数可能增加500万至600万人。该失业数字将超过美国历史上任何一个月,也会超过2009年3月80多万人失业的记录,当月也是2007年至2009年经济大衰退期间失业最高峰。与此同时,越来越多的州下令非必需行业的企业停工,以遏制新冠病毒传播。

“灾难降临。我已经想不出更惨的词了。如果未来几天政府不出台措施支持(企业和家庭),就是末日,”穆迪信息咨询首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示。鉴于美国劳工统计局3月就业报告只收集了截至3月12日一周的数据,马克估计的500万至600万失业人数并不会出现在报告中。他预计,劳工统计局3月报告仅会显示约5万人失业,4月的报告才会披露数百万人失业。

接下来几个月里,赞迪预计失业率将从2月的3.5%跃升到两位数。过去30年里,单月失业率达到两位数只出现过一次。

随着失业救济申请人数激增,周一俄亥俄州等州申请失业救济的网站濒临崩溃。原因很明显:3月15日至19日,俄亥俄州共有139468人申请失业救济,之前一周为4815人。

3月各行业失业分布并不均匀。酒店、餐馆、理发店和游乐园等行业正大量裁员。与此同时,亚马逊和沃尔玛等公司正大举招聘员工,以满足消费者恐慌购物需求。目前许多专业人士也在赋闲,因为公司规定只能远程办公。

“从很多方面来看,这场衰退非常严重也很不寻常,衰退持续时间越长损失就越大。通常来说遇上经济衰退时,政府会出台措施刺激需求,但现在没法鼓励人们出门……往常的措施并不适用,”麻省理工学院经济学教授大卫•奥特表示。他鼓励政府集中资源帮助家庭维持收支。

赞迪认为,如果今夏经济能回暖,2020年底前失业率有望回落到6%。2021年随着受抑制的需求爆发,推动经济步入正轨,失业率还会进一步下降。(财富中文网)

译者:Feb

Layoffs are spiraling.

The jobs cuts from American businesses and industries, like airlines and cruise lines, could add 5 million to 6 million people to the unemployment line in March, according to an estimate provided by Moody’s Analytics to Fortune. That would be greater than any single month for job losses in American history, and it blows away the more than 800,000 jobs lost in March 2009—the largest month for job losses during the 2007 to 2009 Great Recession. This comes as a growing number of states have ordered nonessential businesses to shut their doors in an attempt to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

“This is cataclysmic. I can’t think of a darker word. It’s Armageddon if lawmakers don’t come up with support [for businesses and households] in the next couple days,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. His projected 5 million to 6 million job losses won’t be visible in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ March jobs report—given it collects numbers only through the week of March 12. He expects the BLS March report to show only around 50,000 lost jobs, while the April report is when we’d see the millions of lost jobs on paper.

Over the next few months Zandi foresees the unemployment rate jumping from February’s 3.5% to the double digits. A double-digit monthly jobless rate has only occurred once over the past 30 years.

And this swell in unemployment claims is so large that some states, including Ohio on Monday, are seeing their unemployment sites crash. It’s easy to see why their sites are overwhelmed: Ohio saw a total of 139,468 jobless claims between March 15 to 19, compared to 4,815 the previous week.

These March job losses aren’t evenly disruptive. Businesses like hotels, restaurants, barber shops, and amusement parks are laying off employees in masses. Meanwhile, companies like Amazon and Walmart are going on hiring sprees to meet the demand from panic shoppers. Many professionals—for now—are being spared as employers simply ask them to work remotely.

“In many ways this could be a very deep and an unusual recession—the longer it goes on for, the more damage. Normally in a recession government takes action to stimulate demand, but right now they don't want people traveling...the normal playbook doesn’t apply here,” says David Autor, a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He encourages the government to focus its resources to help households make ends meet.

If the economy does start to warm back up in the summer, Zandi could see unemployment falling back to 6% by the end of 2020, and then falling further in 2021 as the pent-up demand kicks the economy into gear.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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