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疫情中,二手电商面临新难题:供大于求

一场原本看似遥不可及的疫情,真的杀到家门口了,瞬间冷却了人们购买必需品以外所有东西的热情。

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3月11日,二手电商业务在美国的迅猛增长戛然而止。这一天,世界卫生组织宣布,新型冠状病毒为全球大流行病。

对许多美国人来说,那一刻,一场爆发于中国、原本看似遥不可及的疫情,真的杀到家门口了。它的来袭,瞬间冷却了人们购买必需品以外所有东西的热情。一夜之间,卫生纸变得比百货商店廉价出售的羊毛衫还要抢手。

“当人们开始反应过来后,零售经济一下子就受到巨大的冲击,消费支出急剧减少。”平价二手服装网站ThredUp首席执行官詹姆斯·莱因哈特向《财富》杂志表示。

“人们不知道是该买东西,还是卖东西”

一开始,人们担心的是很现实的问题:饱受惊吓的消费者想知道,取包裹是不是都有安全隐患?病毒会不会残留在包裹和商品上?卖家也同样担心这一点。(世界卫生组织和多家美国政府机构已澄清,处理网购包裹是安全的。)

“人们都有点困惑,都不知道是该在Poshmark上买东西还是卖东西。”二手服装交易平台Poshmark首席执行官马尼什·钱德拉说。

Poshmark和ThredUp都是私有企业,它们不愿透露过去两周业务具体下滑情况,但二手电商就跟其他非必需品零售一样,明显正在遭受重创。

由于新冠病毒疫情给经营带来不确定性,销售二手高端奢侈品的上市公司The RealReal上周撤销了2020年的业绩预测,他们还被迫关闭了加州的一个电子商务中心,并取消了旗下寄售店的预约。奢侈品零售,哪怕是低价奢侈品,往往在经济危机中受打击最严重,尤其是股市大跌时,人们理财观发生变化,变得节约起来。法国奢侈品集团路易威登近期宣布,受疫情影响,其第一季度销售额可能将下跌20%。

不过,随着恐慌逐渐减弱,人们被迫坐在家里的电脑前办公或消遣,使得二手电商正在缓慢复苏。

“人们正慢慢地消化疫情消息,一种新常态正在出现,尽管没之前那么理想,但我们预计业务会有所反弹。”莱因哈特说。

钱德拉也表示,Poshmark在售商品呈现激增,过去一周的订单比前一周增长了20%。在他看来,在售商品之所以大增,部分因为很多人失业,或被迫休无薪假,他们正在寻找新的收入来源。(美国劳工部上周四称,最新的失业救济申请人数达到创纪录的330万。)

零售业中,二手电商最有前景

这给二手电商带来另一个问题:供大与求。结果,主要二手电商网站上的商品价格下滑,给很多卖家泼了盆冷水。不过,ThredUp和Poshmark都称,各自平台的供需平衡正在开始恢复。

谈到二手电商的长期前景时,莱因哈特说:“我不知道到底要几周还是要几个月才能恢复过来,但完全没人买东西的那种恐慌已经过去了。”

正是这种趋势,让二手电商在困难重重的零售业中,成为最有前景的一个领域。市场研究公司GlobalData在2019年发布的报告估计,到2023年,美国二手电商销售额将从去年的70亿美元增长至230亿美元,刺激其需求增长的原因包括环保意识、复古产品畅销等等。

不过,二手电商行业首先得跨过当前的危机。至于疫情到底什么时候会好转,这个行业没法预测也无能为力,但一些大型二手电商企业正在做出一些调整,以帮助对他们至关重要的卖家。比如,eBay表示,某些条件下可以延长卖家的付费时限,同时也放宽了商品发货时间。RealReal公司也在帮助卖家设置在线预约。

市场营销方面,各家公司也在随机应变。Poshmark原本计划在多家星巴克门店举办联名活动,召集卖家分享经营心得,相互结识交流,而现在,400人的聚集活动将改为通过视频会议程序Zoom举行。钱德拉说,这是为了让平台卖家们继续保持沟通,共同渡过当下的动荡时期,这样,未来恢复到正常运营的过程就会容易一些,不管那个时刻什么时候到来。

服装类消费需求减少

Poshmark、ThredUp和RealReal主要买卖的都是服装类商品,但现在消费者基本只买生活必需品,服装销售额已经直线下降。一些报告称,3月份一些市场的服装销售额将下降80%。商品种类较多元的网站受影响可能没那么大。eBay发言人向《财富》杂志透露,家居装饰品和电游等娱乐商品销售增长。同样的销售增长情况也出现在卖一手产品的电子城或家居市场里。

理论上,现在一些大型服装连锁店,以及主卖衣服的百货商城纷纷关店,停止运营,二手商务似乎可以乘机去扩大市场份额,但实际上,并没那么简单。那些连锁店和服装零售商最终会降价出售商品,冲击整个服装市场。

“服装商品可能会大幅折价,服装零售商短期内很可能库存过剩。”Gartner资深总监兼分析师托马斯·奥康纳说。

那些库存有很大一部分最终可能会落到服装折扣店里,比如,连锁折扣店T.J. Maxx里有C.K.,耐克等各种从百货商店退回的品牌,高端百货公司特德斯特龙也有自己的折扣店Nordstrom Rack。那些商店里的衣服不仅价格低廉,而且也同样像二手电商平台里那样可以让人“淘宝”。

此外,许多大城市都处于半封城状态,人们无法去餐馆、剧院、酒吧,连办公室都不用去,因此,长时间下来,二手商品网站恐怕还是会有经营压力。“消费者不会像之前那样经常出门了,因此不怎么需要买衣服了。”奥康纳称。

奥康纳和其他分析人士认为,二手电商终将兴起,这一点不容置疑。唯一的问题是,当前经营被干扰的局面到底要持续多长。“它不会消失的,这是肯定的,”奥康纳说,“但到底会在什么时候复苏,重新加速发展呢?”

在中国国内,二手电商也因疫情经历了一番洗劫。比如曾吸引各类资本进场“烧钱”的二手车电商平台,如优信、瓜子等,也频频传出降薪、裁员的消息。

目前,闲鱼、转转等综合性二手交易平台并没有通报自身受疫情的负面影响,反而据媒体报道,2月,闲鱼转转新用户大增,很多被困家中的普通人都开始转售闲置品作为副业赚钱,此外,中国互联网经济研究院的数据显示,到2020年,二手交易市场规模预计达到1万亿。

但和其他国家一样,中国经济也遭受了严重的冲击,届时,到底人们对二手买卖的需求到底有多大,这些都可以让时间来告诉我们。(财富中文网)

译者:万志文

责编:雨晨

3月11日,二手电商业务在美国的迅猛增长戛然而止。这一天,世界卫生组织宣布,新型冠状病毒为全球大流行病。

对许多美国人来说,那一刻,一场爆发于中国、原本看似遥不可及的疫情,真的杀到家门口了。它的来袭,瞬间冷却了人们购买必需品以外所有东西的热情。一夜之间,卫生纸变得比百货商店廉价出售的羊毛衫还要抢手。

“当人们开始反应过来后,零售经济一下子就受到巨大的冲击,消费支出急剧减少。”平价二手服装网站ThredUp首席执行官詹姆斯·莱因哈特向《财富》杂志表示。

“人们不知道是该买东西,还是卖东西”

一开始,人们担心的是很现实的问题:饱受惊吓的消费者想知道,取包裹是不是都有安全隐患?病毒会不会残留在包裹和商品上?卖家也同样担心这一点。(世界卫生组织和多家美国政府机构已澄清,处理网购包裹是安全的。)

“人们都有点困惑,都不知道是该在Poshmark上买东西还是卖东西。”二手服装交易平台Poshmark首席执行官马尼什·钱德拉说。

Poshmark和ThredUp都是私有企业,它们不愿透露过去两周业务具体下滑情况,但二手电商就跟其他非必需品零售一样,明显正在遭受重创。

由于新冠病毒疫情给经营带来不确定性,销售二手高端奢侈品的上市公司The RealReal上周撤销了2020年的业绩预测,他们还被迫关闭了加州的一个电子商务中心,并取消了旗下寄售店的预约。奢侈品零售,哪怕是低价奢侈品,往往在经济危机中受打击最严重,尤其是股市大跌时,人们理财观发生变化,变得节约起来。法国奢侈品集团路易威登近期宣布,受疫情影响,其第一季度销售额可能将下跌20%。

不过,随着恐慌逐渐减弱,人们被迫坐在家里的电脑前办公或消遣,使得二手电商正在缓慢复苏。

“人们正慢慢地消化疫情消息,一种新常态正在出现,尽管没之前那么理想,但我们预计业务会有所反弹。”莱因哈特说。

钱德拉也表示,Poshmark在售商品呈现激增,过去一周的订单比前一周增长了20%。在他看来,在售商品之所以大增,部分因为很多人失业,或被迫休无薪假,他们正在寻找新的收入来源。(美国劳工部上周四称,最新的失业救济申请人数达到创纪录的330万。)

零售业中,二手电商最有前景

这给二手电商带来另一个问题:供大与求。结果,主要二手电商网站上的商品价格下滑,给很多卖家泼了盆冷水。不过,ThredUp和Poshmark都称,各自平台的供需平衡正在开始恢复。

谈到二手电商的长期前景时,莱因哈特说:“我不知道到底要几周还是要几个月才能恢复过来,但完全没人买东西的那种恐慌已经过去了。”

正是这种趋势,让二手电商在困难重重的零售业中,成为最有前景的一个领域。市场研究公司GlobalData在2019年发布的报告估计,到2023年,美国二手电商销售额将从去年的70亿美元增长至230亿美元,刺激其需求增长的原因包括环保意识、复古产品畅销等等。

不过,二手电商行业首先得跨过当前的危机。至于疫情到底什么时候会好转,这个行业没法预测也无能为力,但一些大型二手电商企业正在做出一些调整,以帮助对他们至关重要的卖家。比如,eBay表示,某些条件下可以延长卖家的付费时限,同时也放宽了商品发货时间。RealReal公司也在帮助卖家设置在线预约。

市场营销方面,各家公司也在随机应变。Poshmark原本计划在多家星巴克门店举办联名活动,召集卖家分享经营心得,相互结识交流,而现在,400人的聚集活动将改为通过视频会议程序Zoom举行。钱德拉说,这是为了让平台卖家们继续保持沟通,共同渡过当下的动荡时期,这样,未来恢复到正常运营的过程就会容易一些,不管那个时刻什么时候到来。

服装类消费需求减少

Poshmark、ThredUp和RealReal主要买卖的都是服装类商品,但现在消费者基本只买生活必需品,服装销售额已经直线下降。一些报告称,3月份一些市场的服装销售额将下降80%。商品种类较多元的网站受影响可能没那么大。eBay发言人向《财富》杂志透露,家居装饰品和电游等娱乐商品销售增长。同样的销售增长情况也出现在卖一手产品的电子城或家居市场里。

理论上,现在一些大型服装连锁店,以及主卖衣服的百货商城纷纷关店,停止运营,二手商务似乎可以乘机去扩大市场份额,但实际上,并没那么简单。那些连锁店和服装零售商最终会降价出售商品,冲击整个服装市场。

“服装商品可能会大幅折价,服装零售商短期内很可能库存过剩。”Gartner资深总监兼分析师托马斯·奥康纳说。

那些库存有很大一部分最终可能会落到服装折扣店里,比如,连锁折扣店T.J. Maxx里有C.K.,耐克等各种从百货商店退回的品牌,高端百货公司特德斯特龙也有自己的折扣店Nordstrom Rack。那些商店里的衣服不仅价格低廉,而且也同样像二手电商平台里那样可以让人“淘宝”。

此外,许多大城市都处于半封城状态,人们无法去餐馆、剧院、酒吧,连办公室都不用去,因此,长时间下来,二手商品网站恐怕还是会有经营压力。“消费者不会像之前那样经常出门了,因此不怎么需要买衣服了。”奥康纳称。

奥康纳和其他分析人士认为,二手电商终将兴起,这一点不容置疑。唯一的问题是,当前经营被干扰的局面到底要持续多长。“它不会消失的,这是肯定的,”奥康纳说,“但到底会在什么时候复苏,重新加速发展呢?”

在中国国内,二手电商也因疫情经历了一番洗劫。比如曾吸引各类资本进场“烧钱”的二手车电商平台,如优信、瓜子等,也频频传出降薪、裁员的消息。

目前,闲鱼、转转等综合性二手交易平台并没有通报自身受疫情的负面影响,反而据媒体报道,2月,闲鱼转转新用户大增,很多被困家中的普通人都开始转售闲置品作为副业赚钱,此外,中国互联网经济研究院的数据显示,到2020年,二手交易市场规模预计达到1万亿。

但和其他国家一样,中国经济也遭受了严重的冲击,届时,到底人们对二手买卖的需求到底有多大,这些都可以让时间来告诉我们。(财富中文网)

译者:万志文

责编:雨晨

The fast growth of re-commerce—the online marketplaces for secondhand goods and one of retail's hottest areas—came to a screeching halt on March 11. That was the day the World Health Organization declared that COVID-19 had become a pandemic.

For many Americans, it was the moment that an outbreak that had started in China and previously seemed remote really hit home. It instantly cooled any enthusiasm for shopping for anything other than bare necessities. Toilet paper suddenly became more desirable than that vintage Barneys New York cashmere sweater being resold for a song.

"When it really started to sink in for people, there was a huge shock to the system, and there was a real pullback in spending," James Reinhart, cofounder and chief executive of ThredUp, tells Fortune.

Initially, the concerns were very practical too: Shell-shocked buyers wondered whether it was even safe to order things and receive packages, fretting whether the virus could still be on the items. Sellers wondered the same. (The World Health Organization and U.S. government agencies have said handling packages is safe.)

"There was a bit of confusion across the community of whether we should buy on Poshmark, or be selling on Poshmark," says Poshmark CEO Manish Chandra.

Both Poshmark and ThredUp are privately held and wouldn't quantify the drop in business in the past two weeks, but it is clear re-commerce, just like the rest of nonessential retail right now, is taking a big hit.

The RealReal, which is publicly traded and sells secondhand high-luxury products, pulled its 2020 financial forecasts last week because of coronavirus-related uncertainty. It has also had to close an e-commerce center in California and cancel appointments at its consignment stores. Luxury, even at lower prices, is typically the hardest hit part of retail during a crisis, especially when a big stock market swoon hits people's perception of their own wealth. French luxury conglomerate LVMH said on Friday first-quarter sales could fall as much as 20% because of the virus crisis.

Yet slowly but surely, the re-commerce market is reawakening, as panic recedes and tens of millions of Americans find themselves stuck at home in front of computers.

"As people have digested the news, what we’ve seen is the new normal—not as good as it was before, but we expect to see business rebound," says Reinhart.

Chandra, who said orders last week rose 20% over the week before, noted that Poshmark has seen a surge in items listed for sale. He ascribes some of that to the fact that many Americans, facing furloughs or job losses, are looking for a new source of income. (On Thursday, the Department of Labor said a record 3.3 million had filed for unemployment benefits.)

That has created another problem for re-commerce: Supply and demand are out of sync, pressuring prices on the main re-commerce sites, to the frustration of many sellers. Still, the companies say, balance is beginning to return.

"What I can’t tell you is whether that will take a few weeks or a few months. We’re over the panic of nobody is shopping at all," says Reinhart, predicting re-commerce's long-term prospects hold.

And that trajectory has made re-commerce one of the most promising areas in the beleaguered retail industry. A 2019 report by research firm GlobalData estimated sales of secondhand items excluding Goodwill and thrift shops in the U.S. would rise from $7 billion last year to $23 billion in 2023, with demand stoked by factors such as concerns for the environment and interest in vintage products.

But first the industry has to get past the current crisis. While the sector can't predict or influence how quickly the coronavirus will be contained, the big re-commerce players are making some changes for the sellers on whom they rely to have a functioning marketplace. EBay for one says it is giving sellers more time to pay fees under some circumstances, and more time to ship items. The RealReal is helping sellers facilitate virtual appointments.

On the marketing side, there are also adjustments to everyone's new reality. Poshmark had planned to hold so-called Posh N Coffee events, gatherings that bring together sellers (called "Poshers" by the company) to share tips and network, at many Starbucks stores across the country this weekend. Instead, 400 get-togethers will be held virtually via Zoom. The point, Chandra says, is to keep its marketplace participants in contact with each other through the current turmoil to ease the return to normal—whenever that might happen.

Apparel pullback

Poshmark, ThredUp, and the RealReal are all heavily focused on apparel, an industry that has seen sales plummet as shoppers focus on essentials. Some reports have suggested an 80% drop in clothing sales in some markets this month. (The impact may be less severe on sites that host a wider variety of products; an eBay spokesperson told Fortune that items for home-improvement projects and entertainment like video games were up, echoing comments by retailers like Best Buy and Lowe's that sell such products new.)

In theory, the fact that big apparel chains like Gap Inc. and department stores like Kohl's and Macy's are enduring lengthy store closings should offer re-commerce a market share opportunity. But it's not that simple.Those chains and clothing retailers will eventually cut prices on unsold merchandise, slamming the whole apparel market.

"There’s likely to be significant discounting of apparel. Apparel retailers are likely to be overinventoried in the near term," says Thomas O'Connor, a senior director and analyst at Gartner.

Much of that inventory is likely to end up at "off-price" stores like T.J. Maxx, which sells a lot of merchandise returned to vendors like Calvin Klein or Under Armour by department stores, or at discounters associated with the large chains, such as Nordstrom Rack. Those stores offer not only low prices but also some of the treasure hunt aspect shoppers find appealing about re-commerce.

What's more, there is likely to be pressure on the resale sites from people's inability to go to restaurants, the theater, bars—or even the office—for an extended period while countless major cities are under at least partial lockdowns. "Consumers are not going out nearly as much, therefore don't need clothes to go out as much," he said.

Yet O'Connor and other analysts see re-commerce's ultimate ascent as incontrovertible. The only question is how long the current disruption lasts."It’s not going to go away, of course," he says, of the industry. "But what’s the timeline for re-commerce to recover and reaccelerate?"

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