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摩根大通:美国二季度GDP可能萎缩35%

Jen Wieczner
2020-04-08

摩根大通CEO认为,面对疫情,美国没有做好充分准备,美国经济将遭到重创。

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摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)CEO杰米·戴蒙周一在年度致股东的信中写道,摩根大通正在为“极端不利情境”做准备,这种情境的严重程度将超过2008年的金融危机和经济衰退。

该最差情境“假设美国经济将出现更严重的衰退”:今年第二季度,国内生产总值(GDP)将萎缩35%,整个2020年将保持下滑趋势,截至年底,失业率最高将达到14%。戴蒙在信中写道:“这个情境非常严重,我们希望它不会发生。”

相比之下,自2008年金融危机至今,摩根大通在美联储的压力测试中模拟的最糟糕的情境,也只是假设失业率最高达到10%,股市下跌50%。(到目前为止,经过最近与新型冠状病毒有关的几轮暴跌,股市较之前高点的最大跌幅为37%。)戴蒙写道,虽然新型冠状病毒危机“与压力测试中模拟的情境有相似的属性”,但它“与预期的情况截然不同”。

即使戴蒙针对此次疫情设想的最好的情况也不够美好,因为他预测疫情对经济的影响至少会与前一次经济衰退的严重程度相当。戴蒙写道:“我们假设至少会出现严重衰退和某种程度的金融压力,重演2008年的全球金融危机。”

戴蒙指出,企业已经使用了超过500亿美元周转性信贷额度,“远远高于全球金融危机时的水平。”此外,他还写道,摩根大通的内部研究显示,有半数小企业的现金存量不足以维持超过15天,“进一步解释了为什么小企业会受到此次危机的严重影响,并且在很长时间内难以走出阴影。”

一旦戴蒙对于新型冠状病毒危机预测的最糟糕的情况成真,就会引发另外一个问题:2008年至2009年大衰退之后执行的金融监管政策。这些政策对摩根大通提出了资本缓冲要求,影响了其对外提供贷款的能力。戴蒙写道:“随着我们日益接近极端不利情境中描述的状况,当前的监管约束会限制我们为帮助客户可以采取的措施,即使我们能够部署大量资本和流动性。随着危机加剧,最终会使客户受到伤害。”

但戴蒙认为,现在为了减缓此次危机的影响修改监管政策已经为时过晚。他写道:“这些政策未来肯定会被修改,但不是现在。”

戴蒙认为美国针对新型冠状病毒“没有做好充分准备”,并在信中列举了多个理由,这只是其中之一。戴蒙写道:“作为一个国家,我们显然没有为这次全球疫情及其产生的毁灭性后果做好准备。我们本应该有应对疫情的预案。”

戴蒙呼吁政府把精力放在“为后续的事情做好更充分的准备”,包括制定允许人们安全复工的流程。他写道:“只要处理得当,进行有序过渡,不仅可以最大程度保证美国人的健康,还能减少经济下滑持续的时间、严重程度和造成的破坏。”

他建议的措施包括通过血液检测确定对COVID-19出现适当免疫力的群体。他写道:“除此之外,如果联邦、州和地方政府能够进行大范围检测,让人们可以证明他们感染过新型冠状病毒并且已经康复,体内已产生必要抗体使他们不会再次感染,并且也不会传染其他人,这样就可以加快‘复工’的速度。”(财富中文网)

译者:Biz

摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)CEO杰米·戴蒙周一在年度致股东的信中写道,摩根大通正在为“极端不利情境”做准备,这种情境的严重程度将超过2008年的金融危机和经济衰退。

该最差情境“假设美国经济将出现更严重的衰退”:今年第二季度,国内生产总值(GDP)将萎缩35%,整个2020年将保持下滑趋势,截至年底,失业率最高将达到14%。戴蒙在信中写道:“这个情境非常严重,我们希望它不会发生。”

相比之下,自2008年金融危机至今,摩根大通在美联储的压力测试中模拟的最糟糕的情境,也只是假设失业率最高达到10%,股市下跌50%。(到目前为止,经过最近与新型冠状病毒有关的几轮暴跌,股市较之前高点的最大跌幅为37%。)戴蒙写道,虽然新型冠状病毒危机“与压力测试中模拟的情境有相似的属性”,但它“与预期的情况截然不同”。

即使戴蒙针对此次疫情设想的最好的情况也不够美好,因为他预测疫情对经济的影响至少会与前一次经济衰退的严重程度相当。戴蒙写道:“我们假设至少会出现严重衰退和某种程度的金融压力,重演2008年的全球金融危机。”

戴蒙指出,企业已经使用了超过500亿美元周转性信贷额度,“远远高于全球金融危机时的水平。”此外,他还写道,摩根大通的内部研究显示,有半数小企业的现金存量不足以维持超过15天,“进一步解释了为什么小企业会受到此次危机的严重影响,并且在很长时间内难以走出阴影。”

一旦戴蒙对于新型冠状病毒危机预测的最糟糕的情况成真,就会引发另外一个问题:2008年至2009年大衰退之后执行的金融监管政策。这些政策对摩根大通提出了资本缓冲要求,影响了其对外提供贷款的能力。戴蒙写道:“随着我们日益接近极端不利情境中描述的状况,当前的监管约束会限制我们为帮助客户可以采取的措施,即使我们能够部署大量资本和流动性。随着危机加剧,最终会使客户受到伤害。”

但戴蒙认为,现在为了减缓此次危机的影响修改监管政策已经为时过晚。他写道:“这些政策未来肯定会被修改,但不是现在。”

戴蒙认为美国针对新型冠状病毒“没有做好充分准备”,并在信中列举了多个理由,这只是其中之一。戴蒙写道:“作为一个国家,我们显然没有为这次全球疫情及其产生的毁灭性后果做好准备。我们本应该有应对疫情的预案。”

戴蒙呼吁政府把精力放在“为后续的事情做好更充分的准备”,包括制定允许人们安全复工的流程。他写道:“只要处理得当,进行有序过渡,不仅可以最大程度保证美国人的健康,还能减少经济下滑持续的时间、严重程度和造成的破坏。”

他建议的措施包括通过血液检测确定对COVID-19出现适当免疫力的群体。他写道:“除此之外,如果联邦、州和地方政府能够进行大范围检测,让人们可以证明他们感染过新型冠状病毒并且已经康复,体内已产生必要抗体使他们不会再次感染,并且也不会传染其他人,这样就可以加快‘复工’的速度。”(财富中文网)

译者:Biz

JPMorgan Chase is preparing for “an extremely adverse scenario,” worse than the 2008 financial crisis and recession, CEO Jamie Dimon wrote in his annual letter published Monday.

That worst-case scenario “assumes an even deeper contraction,” with gross domestic product (GDP) shrinking 35% in the second quarter of this year and remaining down through 2020, while the unemployment rate peaks at 14% by the end of the year. “This scenario is quite severe and, we hope, unlikely,” Dimon wrote in the letter.

By comparison, since the 2008 financial crisis until now, the worst-case scenario the bank had modeled in its stress tests for the Federal Reserve assumed a peak unemployment rate of 10%, as well as a 50% drop in the stock market. (So far, in the recent coronavirus-related market crash, stocks have fallen at most 37% from their previous highs.) While the coronavirus crisis “shares attributes with what is being stress-tested,” Dimon wrote, it “is dramatically different from the expected.”

Even Dimon’s best-case scenario for the current pandemic isn’t all that rosy, as he expects it to be at least as severe as the previous recession. “At a minimum, we assume that it will include a bad recession combined with some kind of financial stress similar to the global financial crisis of 2008,” Dimon wrote.

Indeed, the CEO pointed out, companies have already tapped their revolving credit lines for more than $50 billion, drawing down an amount that “already dramatically exceeds what happened in the global financial crisis.” Meanwhile, he wrote, half of small businesses don’t have enough cash stockpiled to last them more than 15 days, according to the bank’s internal research, “reinforcing why small businesses are being heavily disrupted by the current crisis and will feel the effects for a significant period of time.”

In the event that the coronavirus crisis approaches Dimon’s worst-case projections, another problem arises: Financial regulations implemented in the wake of the 2008–09 Great Recession hamstring JPMorgan Chase’s ability to lend out its capital by requiring it to maintain a buffer in its coffers. “As we get closer to the extremely adverse scenario, current regulatory constraints will limit additional actions we can take to help clients—in spite of the extraordinary amount of capital and liquidity we could deploy,” Dimon wrote. “This can hurt customers as the crisis deepens.”

Yet he also recognizes that it’s too late to try to change the rules in time to alleviate this crisis. “There will be a time and place for that—but not now,” he wrote.

That’s only one of several reasons he thinks the U.S. “was not adequately prepared” for the coronavirus. “As a nation, we were clearly not equipped for this global pandemic, and the consequences have been devastating,” Dimon wrote. “There should have been a pandemic playbook.”

Instead, Dimon urged the country to focus on being “more prepared for what comes next,” including laying out a process to get people safely back to work. “Done right, a disciplined transition would maximize the health of Americans and minimize the time, extent, and suffering caused by the economic downturn,” Dimon wrote.

That includes rolling out blood tests to determine who has developed the proper immunities to COVID-19, he recommended. “In addition, this ‘return to work’ process could be accelerated if federal, state, and local governments make tests widely available that allow people to certify that they have contracted and recovered from the disease, have the necessary antibodies to prevent them from getting sick again, and are not infectious to anyone,” Dimon wrote.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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